by AAA Sports
Wednesday, Mar 29, 2023March Madness this year has exceeded all expectations and has been nothing short of amazing. From FDU upsetting Purdue in the first round, to Virginia getting upset by Furman. It has been the Tournament for "underdogs." In fact, since 1979 when the NCAA Tournament was first seeded, there’s never been a Final Four without a #1, #2, or #3 seed; until this year. The Final Four consists of #4 UConn, #5 Miami, #5 San Diego State, and #9 FAU.
I will be previewing the Final Four teams in the order which I BELIEVE have the most value based on their current odds on DraftKings.
San Diego State (+400)
I really like San Diego State to win this whole tournament. The biggest component of San Diego State is that its head coach, Brian Dutcher keeps them all composed and confident every minute his team is on the floor. SDSU has the highest adjD among the remaining teams and the second hardest Strength of Schedule (SOS) keeping them in very close-knit games. SOS plays a big factor here as their last 6 games have all come against teams in KenPoms Top 100, and FAU is ranked 17. Lastly, SDSU has the oldest D-1 Experienced team among these 4 teams and that experience will matter down the stretch.
Miami FL +(450)
I did not expect Miami to make it this far however here they are. James Larrañaga has centered his team around a group of players who never give up and put that on full display this tournament. Miami has trailed by 5+ points at Halftime in 2/4 games in March Madness and went on to win both by 7 points - at one point they were down 13 against Texas. The key to Miami’s success is its offensive ability to create something out of nothing. They are getting assists on 50% of made FGs and are grabbing 31% of their offensive rebounds. They are weak defensively however they are the second oldest D-1 Experienced team and their willingness to keep fighting in games when they down show that.
FAU (+650)
FAU comes into the Final Four riding the longest active win streak in College Basketball with 11 wins. This is largely due to their excellent ability to play at both ends of the court. They are ranked 24th in AdjO and 30th in adjE. They are shooting 53.9% from 2PT range and 36.5% from 3PT. The issue with FAU is outside of Johnell Davis no one on the team shoots over 79% from the FT line which can really haunt them in close games. Lastly, I believe FAU’s inexperience can play a big role in the Final Four.
UConn (-125)
I have UConn so low because there is little to no value in this bet at this point. However, UConn is the best team in the Final Four. They are ranked 4th in adjO and 11th in adjD. A big issue I have with UConn is that they are only averaging 66 Possessions per game and that puts them 3rd among the Final Four. Theirs no denying that UConn has an elite offense where they are shooting with an effective FG of 54% however in March Madness upsets happen - and UConn should be on HIGH ALERT.
Overall, this has been an amazing March Madness that will be talked about for years to come. Above are the teams IN ORDER where I believe they have the most value to win the Tournament (outright). Best of luck and enjoy the Final Four!
I will be previewing the Final Four teams in the order which I BELIEVE have the most value based on their current odds on DraftKings.
San Diego State (+400)
I really like San Diego State to win this whole tournament. The biggest component of San Diego State is that its head coach, Brian Dutcher keeps them all composed and confident every minute his team is on the floor. SDSU has the highest adjD among the remaining teams and the second hardest Strength of Schedule (SOS) keeping them in very close-knit games. SOS plays a big factor here as their last 6 games have all come against teams in KenPoms Top 100, and FAU is ranked 17. Lastly, SDSU has the oldest D-1 Experienced team among these 4 teams and that experience will matter down the stretch.
Miami FL +(450)
I did not expect Miami to make it this far however here they are. James Larrañaga has centered his team around a group of players who never give up and put that on full display this tournament. Miami has trailed by 5+ points at Halftime in 2/4 games in March Madness and went on to win both by 7 points - at one point they were down 13 against Texas. The key to Miami’s success is its offensive ability to create something out of nothing. They are getting assists on 50% of made FGs and are grabbing 31% of their offensive rebounds. They are weak defensively however they are the second oldest D-1 Experienced team and their willingness to keep fighting in games when they down show that.
FAU (+650)
FAU comes into the Final Four riding the longest active win streak in College Basketball with 11 wins. This is largely due to their excellent ability to play at both ends of the court. They are ranked 24th in AdjO and 30th in adjE. They are shooting 53.9% from 2PT range and 36.5% from 3PT. The issue with FAU is outside of Johnell Davis no one on the team shoots over 79% from the FT line which can really haunt them in close games. Lastly, I believe FAU’s inexperience can play a big role in the Final Four.
UConn (-125)
I have UConn so low because there is little to no value in this bet at this point. However, UConn is the best team in the Final Four. They are ranked 4th in adjO and 11th in adjD. A big issue I have with UConn is that they are only averaging 66 Possessions per game and that puts them 3rd among the Final Four. Theirs no denying that UConn has an elite offense where they are shooting with an effective FG of 54% however in March Madness upsets happen - and UConn should be on HIGH ALERT.
Overall, this has been an amazing March Madness that will be talked about for years to come. Above are the teams IN ORDER where I believe they have the most value to win the Tournament (outright). Best of luck and enjoy the Final Four!
