by Wayne Root
Tuesday, Sep 24, 2024Here’s some matchups that has a lot of hype leading into the weekend.
Oklahoma St vs Kansas St
Louisville vs Notre Dame
Arkansas vs Texas A&M
Georgia vs Alabama
Illinois vs Penn St
These are just a few big games set for Saturday, September 28. How do you separate the hype from the past reputation to new players from the portal?
We’re at the time of year in college football where hype is out of control surrounding some teams. Football teams that have gotten out to hot starts – whether expected or not – can do no wrong in the eyes of the media and the betting public. I love to note teams I think are good but started the season 2-1 or 1-2 and the oddsmakers will over adjust the lines in October. But the public will have it in their mind to bet against them from what they have seen. Look at what Texas did to Michigan. Then Michigan turned around the following week and defeated USC.
As you know if you have spent any time at all watching sports, though, not all teams live up to their early season hype. Some don’t live up to it in truly spectacular fashion. Our job as sports bettors is to try to tell the difference between the teams that are as good as advertised, and the ones that have sucked people in only to eventually break their hearts.
Here are five questions to ask yourself as a football bettor as you try to determine which teams are which:
1. Who have they played?
This is the biggest trap that sports bettors fall into. They get all excited because a team gets off to a hot 3-0 start and pile up a bunch of points or play stellar defense, but they forget to consider who the opponents were. I try to throw out stats of the one sided games from week one and week two so I have a clear picture for the rest of the year. Maybe those wins came against a hopelessly outmatched opponent. Or maybe they were against good teams, but ones that don’t play well on the road. Or maybe the opponents were suffering from injuries to key players, or were adjusting to new football coaches or new schemes. The actual final score in a game tells very little of the story of what has gone on, and until you plunge deeper and get a sense of what has actually happened you just aren’t working with enough information to know if a team should be hyped or not.
2. Were the matchups particularly favorable?
Further to the last point, what you really need to look at is the matchups in the early games. Is the hyped team a pass-heavy team that was facing a team with a defective pass rush or an inexperienced secondary. Are they a football team with a large defensive line that was able to contain and control the opposing undersized offensive line and running backs? Do they have a relentless blitzing approach that rattled a young opposing quarterback? If there is a matchup issue that clearly contributed to the hot start and therefore the hype then it is crucial that you identify it. If the mismatch is one that is likely to continue then the team might be worthy of the attention. If it’s just a quirk of scheduling that positioned the game or games that best suit their style early in the schedule, though, then you might have spotted a situation where the sports betting public’s affection is unwarranted.
3. Has the hype been fueled by one player performing extraordinarily well?
Be sure to check out the play of a Heisman hopeful. Did he carry the team or did the coach help pad his stats. The less a hot start is built around one player, or even just a couple, the more likely that it is sustainable. Look at Colorado’s QB,
Shedeur Sanders. He’s a prime example of the public betting on him and the excitement his dad, the coach, brings to the media.
4. What’s the coaching status?
There is always new optimism around a new hire, so that combined with a hot start can get hype running at high levels. More often than not, though, that hot start can’t be sustained. Changing systems and approachss isn’t easy and growing pains are inevitable. If the hype is surrounding a team with a new coach I am always skeptical, and my skepticism is rarely unfounded.
5. How do they differ now from preseason perception?
Every so often a team in College goes from worst to first in a single year. Or a semi-miraculous climb in the standings. the media and the public love those stories – so much so that they want to see them happening all the time. The problem, though, is that a majority of the time a football team that was bad last year and hasn’t done much about it isn’t likely to be great this year – no matter how they do in their first couple of games. If a team was pretty universally viewed to be an also-ran before the season but then they pick up a couple of impressive early wins you need to be especially sure in your football handicapping that the current reality differs in a meaningful way form the preseason perception of the team before you get too excited and buy into them. Because UNLV was good last year, especially versus the spread at 9-2, their 3-0 start may show that they are really good and a team the oddsmakers or public haven’t caught up with. And they’re ranked #23 in the Coaches poll. Unprecedented.
