Early MLB MVP Value Plays

National League 

 

Pete Alonso (+1000) .277/14/48

The Mets designated hitter is a major reason New York has jumped out to a sizable early season lead in the NL East. Alonso not only gets the attention playing in a premier market but he also has the stats to back him up. He currently leads the NL in RBIs and is second in home runs while batting .277. Having great stats in those three categories, playing in a premier market, and leading your team to first in the standings are a great formula for a MVP. 

CJ Cron (+2500) .298/14/40

Betts, Machado, Goldschmidt, and Harper top the NL MVP odds, and for good reason. When strictly looking at their current stats, CJ Cron is the only other NL player who stacks up eerily similar in HRs (2nd), RBIs (5th), and BA (10th). Cron is a longshot and in order for a player like this to break through, he will need the Rockies to remain relevant in the stacked NL West. Colorado’s first baseman has implanted himself in the discussion with a hot start in the categories that matter for MVP.  

American League 

Jose Ramirez (+1200) .295/13/52

The AL MVP is not as top heavy as the NL, and could realistically have any of the top 20 candidates win. Both Ohtani and Trout share the spotlight, and if the Angels miss the playoffs yet again, the race for MVP opens even more. Ramirez currently leads all of MLB in RBIs. He is also right in the mix with HRs and BA. Maybe his most impressive stat is that he has only 15 strikeouts on the year which is a 7.3% strikeout rate. Only one player in the past seven years has had a lower SO rate (Tommy La Stella 2019, 5.8%). The average SO rate in MLB last season was 24%. This a testament to how well Ramirez is hitting this year, and we find great value in him at 4th best AL MVP odds currently. 

Rafael Devers (+2000) .338/11/27

Boston’s 3rd baseman is off to a great start to his year as expected. He was the Red Sox best hitter last year while leading them with 38 HRs and 113 RBIs. Based on last season we expect Devers to continue to rake and even pick up the pace on his HR and RBI numbers. As one of the best young players in baseball, playing on one of the most notable franchises, he is firmly in the hunt to win. Boston's hitting is not the issue and Devers’ heavy lifting will hopefully be enough to keep them in contention.