Early Look at NFL Win Totals

This offseason has been one of the most eventful of all time. Lots of notable players will be sporting new team colors, while we still have plenty of guys not yet committed to teams for 2022. With all the movement of personnel that will still happen in the coming months, there are a few teams we feel to be over or undervalued as it stands currently. 

Chiefs - Under 11 Wins

Kansas City seems to have gotten worse while the rest of their division has gotten significantly better. The AFC West added an unprecedented amount of talent this offseason. The Raiders brought in the best receiver in football (Davante Adams), and added Chandler Jones to combo with Maxx Crosby. The Broncos got Russell Wilson to go along with an already stacked defense. Lastly, the Chargers now have Kahlil Mack next to Joey Bosa. Each of these three teams has an elite pass rush and a slew of offensive firepower to score at will. The Chiefs had 12 wins last season while going 5-1 in their division. They now will play a first place schedule and the AFC West will be a gauntlet. What hurts even more is the loss of Tyreek Hill. For the first time in his career, Mahomes will be without two elite weapons. He now only has a 32 year old Kelce who has plenty of tread on the tires. They do not have a true number one wide receiver and Mahomes' historical contact is starting to limit the roster talent. 

Patriots - Over 8.5 Wins 

Mac Jones compiled 10 wins in his rookie campaign while leaning on a run-heavy approach. Another year of development mixed with a few additional weapons will allow Mac to handle more of the offensive burden. We expect New England to have a top 10 defense again, just as they have had for the majority of the last two decades under Bill Belichick. The Patriots have ranked 7th or higher in total points allowed in each of the last 6 seasons. Whether it is the talent or the coaching, Belichick’s track record speaks for itself. If the Pats can split their two matchups with the Bills like last season, they will be a good bet to finish over .500.

Panthers - Under 6 Wins

Matt Rhule is already on thin ice entering the year and the pressure to succeed is only going to be detrimental at the first signs of struggle. Carolina has zero answers in their own quarterback room and none of the potential first round QBs would be stepping into a good situation.  An injury prone Christian McCaffrey is eating up cap space and only adds to the lack of identity this team has as a whole. The only saving grace is playing the Falcons and Saints for four games in 2022.  There is a chance they make a run at Cleveland QB Mayfield but that doesn't change much in our mind.  QB is a huge question mark either way, and If the Panthers do not take a first round QB next weekend, then it will be a telltale sign that they may be looking at C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young in 2023. In that case, it would be meaningless to even try to surpass the six win mark.