Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Saturday, April 16th, 2022 

Venue:   Chase Center, San Francisco, California

Where to Watch: ABC 

DraftKings:  Spread: Warriors -6.5; O/U 223

Fanduel:  Spread:  Warriors -6; O/U 223

BetMGM:  Spread: Warriors -6.5; O/U 222.5

Nuggets: 48-34, 6th place Western Conference

Warriors: 53-29, 3rd place Western Conference

A Western Conference NBA Play-off Game 1 nightcap.  The match-up between 3rd place and 6th place doesn’t hold much drama to Vegas… Vegas heavily favors the Warriors.  The TV talking heads heavily favor the Warriors.  The crackpot at the Sportsbook who picks up dropped betting tickets to double check them... heavily favors the Warriors.  My neighbor who has not seen an entire NBA game in her entire life favors the Warriors because she has heard of Steph and Klay, the Splash Brothers…. Only she called them “the Magic Splash Brothers”.  What I am saying is that everyone believes the NBA’s best player C Nikola Jokic has no chance in a 7 game series against the Warriors just because he has very little in the way of quality, capable teammates.  The matchup to watch in this game… and really the entire series will be between Nikola Jokic and everyone the Warriors throw at him.. Starting with C Kevon Looney.  There is a great betting opportunity here… I just don’t like giving out favorites in the Playoffs with a 6 point spread or higher… It leaves too much room for the other side to sneak in and take our money without even having to win the game.  Let’s look at the numbers and see if the Warriors can cover a 6 - 6.5 point spread?

The Denver Nuggets won six of their last 10 games.  They went 4-6 ATS during that stretch.  Their final game was an insane loss to the Los Angeles Lakers 146-141.  None of the stars were playing… No Jokic for the Nuggets.. No Lebron, Westbrook, or Anthony Davis for the Lakers… and the remaining scraps of teams that were left blasted into each other in an all offense no defense track meet…. It was so hard to watch, the Basketball Gods insisted that it go to useless Overtime!  The problem with the Denver Nuggets is (and I have said this 82 times before) is that C Nikola Jokic leads them in every category of consequence… every one across the whole board.  Joker leads the Nuggets in pts, asts, rbs, stls, blocks, and FG percentage.  He has to because SG Jamal Murray has missed the whole season with injury and PF Michael Porter Jr missed his fifth season just as he did his first and second seasons with yet another back surgery.  Joker is on an island of his own.  He put up herculean MVP numbers this season and they fell into obscurity because his team is no good.  NIkola Jokic is the player most in need of a trade demand out of everybody in the whole league.

The Golden State Warriors have won 6 of their last ten games.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  The Warriors spent most of the season cruising along in a constant battle with the Phoenix Suns for 1st or second place in the conference AND the league.  It was getting better too because SG Klay Thompson came back from his 2 ½ seasons of injury and rehab!  Immediately PF Draymond Green went down and the Warriors began struggling… They still had Steph and Klay and young-blood Jordan Poole is rapidly becoming a star… but without Draymond the team doesn’t really work.  So they began losing games and Phoenix nabbed first place with no chance of giving it back… Then as Draymond Green returned from his 6-week absence, immediately PG Stephen Curry went down with an injury that held him out for the last 6 weeks of the season.  The stat everyone points to is that the Hall Of Fame combo of Steph, Klay, and Draymond only played 11 MINUTES together this season… not games… MINUTES.  And still they ended up in third place in the Western Conference with a 53 win season.  

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Denver is 48-34 on the season, but 35-45-1 ATS.  They have logged 44 Overs, 36 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 25-16 in road games.

Golden State is 53-29 on the season, but 41-37-4 ATS.  They have notched 35 overs, 45 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are a dominant 31-10 in home games.

Denver is 10th in scoring with 112.7 ppg, 17th in rebounds with 44.1 per game, and 6th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 14th while allowing 110.4 ppg from opponents.

Golden State ranks 15th in scoring with 111.0 ppg, 7th in rebounds with 45.5 per game, and 12th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd while holding opponents to 105.5 ppg.

Our prediction for Saturday, April 16th is…..  Warriors 125 - Nuggets 106

Steph, Klay and Draymond will finally be reunited for a full game together.  Plus the Warriors are at home where they are particularly dominant.  The Nuggets will see what they already know… Joker can do it alone in the regular season but needs more from his team in the Playoffs.  

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Denver is 13-4 ATS in road games where the total is greater or equal to 220.

Golden State is 30-13 ATS in first round games since 1996.

Denver is 10 Over and 3 Unders in first round playoff games the last 3 seasons.

Denver: PF Michael Porter Jr (back) Out ** SG Jamal Murray (knee) Out

Golden State: C James Wiseman (knee) Out

Denver: C Nikola Jokic, SF Aaron Gordon, PF JaMychal Green, SG Will Barton, OG Monte Morris

Warriors: C Kevon Looney, PF Draymond Green, SF Andrew Wiggins, SG Klay Thompson, PG Stephen Curry

Nuggets: Michael Malone

Warriors: Steve Kerr