by Hollywood Sports
Wednesday, Jan 31, 2024In my preseason deep dive on the Detroit Lions, one of my notes of concern regarded Dan Campbell’s proclivity to go for it on fourth down. In his first two seasons as their head coach, the Lions led the NFL in fourth down attempts. Detroit also attempted eight fake punts and was successful seven times. But with the higher expectations for the team, after they won eight of their final ten games last season, I wondered if Campbell’s aggressiveness would end up backfiring for his team.
Aggressive play-calling is a way for underdogs to overachieve expectations. It made sense for Campbell to instill confidence in his team by taking these chances. These tactics also helped protect a suspect defense that was giving up plenty of points.
But the problem with all the fake punts is that opponents become aware to be prepared for it. The surprise value of the trick has limited returns. Detroit converted on a fake punt early in the season — but when they tried it again in their Thanksgiving Day game against Green Bay, the Packers were ready for it. The Lions failed to execute the play — and Green Bay got the ball just outside the red zone. The Packers soon scored a touchdown to take a 29-14 lead — and they would go on to win by a 29-22 score.
Perhaps the harbinger for the end of Detroit’s 2023-24 season took place last year in their game against New England. In that 29-0 loss, the Lions failed on all six of their fourth down attempts.
Cut to Detroit’s regular season showdown at Dallas against the Cowboys late in the season. Campbell lost his cool by recklessly doubling down by going for the win even though it was fourth and seven (then fourth and four after a Cowboys penalty) after suffering the cosmic injustice of a bad call from the referees after the Lions were too clever for its own good tackle-eligible receiver play. Campbell remained steadfast in not regretting his decision to simply kick the extra point and be willing to play in a tie game late in the fourth quarter. The seeds were planted for Detroit’s historic meltdown in the NFC Championship Game.
The Lions enjoyed a dream first half on the road in San Francisco against the 49ers. And when faced with the opportunity late in the first half to try to score another touchdown with time running out, Campbell made the prudent and, in my mind, prudent decision to settle for a field goal rather than risking not scoring any points with time expiring. Detroit went into halftime with a 24-7 lead. For San Francisco to win, they would need to overcome a three-possession deficit.
The 49ers got the ball first — the Lions scored a victory by holding them to just a field goal. 24-10. Detroit immediately moved the ball down the field with an effective rushing attack. But the play-calling got aggressive with a failed long pass to tight end Sam LaPorta setting up a third-and-five. The Lions chose to run the ball — as if it was two-down territory despite them being in field goal range. Then on fourth and a long one-yard, quarterback Jared Goff’s pass to Josh Reynolds was dropped. Granted a 31-10 lead after scoring a potential touchdown might have been the dagger. But neutralizing the Niners' initial field goal in the second half by matching those three points would have made it a 27-10 game with half the third quarter already burned. A three-possession lead would continue to squeeze the life out of a team and a fan base that had little to cheer about.
Instead, San Francisco got the stop they needed. A few plays later, the Niners got very lucky when an overthrown deep pass from Brock Purdy got tipped up in the air which allowed Brandon Aiyuk to grab it for a 51-yard reception inside Detroit’s five-yard line. Moments later the 49ers are only trailing by seven points. For those of us who believe in momentum, the tables have suddenly turned. Perhaps the Momentum Gods would not intervene with the tipped ball if the Lions simply kicked the field goal. But a 27-17 lead would have felt much better when Detroit got the ball again.
Instead, rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs received a handoff deep on the Lions' side of the field suddenly led by only one score. Gibbs then fumbles, the Niners recover and score the tying touchdown. In a matter of a few moments, a game that seemed almost out of reach was now tied. And a franchise that had never reached the Super Bowl had suddenly blown a 17-point lead.
Maybe Campbell’s aggressiveness helped Detroit win the NFC North and reach the playoffs. But losing cultures don’t flip simply because someone declares it over. Winning cultures come from winning games — and good head coaches are stewards of their players in managing games to secure victories. In this regard, Campbell failed. His decision-making was, in fact, the act of a loser — one who thought seizing a 21-point lead was necessary. He communicated to his team that taking the easier 17-point lead was not going to be enough.
Campbell later defended his decision by uttering something about the 49ers taking back momentum by controlling the time of possession. The only second-half drive that San Francisco had was the one where they settled for a field goal. My dude, if the Niners were going to continue to embark on long-scoring drives, they were risking running out of time. They still needed three drives with just over 22 minutes left in the game. The field goal would have kept the pressure on. Pressure busts pipes.
Even after all this, Campbell had one more ill-advised decision left in him. San Francisco scored a field goal to take a 27-24 lead. The Lions got the ball back and immediately moved down the field to get into field goal range. But once again, when faced with a fourth down, Campbell bypassed the potential game-tying field goal to go for it on fourth down. Once again, Detroit fails to convert. The 49ers move down the field to score a touchdown to take a ten-point lead with about three minutes left in the game. The Lions score a touchdown but then fail to recover an onside kick.
The decision to forego a game-tying field represented the three-point margin in their 34-31 loss. While taking a potential 31-27 lead would have been better, the risk of missing the fourth down and creating the possibility of San Francisco scoring a touchdown to take a two-possession lead late in the game was of graver magnitude. I am aware of Expected Points Added models that called for the Lions to go for (both) fourth downs. Those models do not reveal their methodology regarding how they derive their numbers. Those models also do not take momentum into account — in fact, the underlying assumption is that momentum does not exist since it would invalidate their sample sizes since the data points may have circumstances no longer applicable. Who are you going to believe — businesses promoting their analytics or your lying eyes?
In hindsight, Detroit’s second-half collapse was staggering. The fumble and the several dropped passes all happened after the missed fourth down when they had a 17-point lead midway through the third quarter. I consider it the most obvious example of negative momentum in action in recent history since the 2018 Western Conference Finals in the NBA when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight shots from 3-point range against Golden State.
When discussing what happened in the famed Montreal Screwjob when professional wrestler Brett “the Hit Man” Hart lost his championship belt in an unscripted turn of events orchestrated by World Wrestling Federation owner Vince McMahon proclaimed in denying that he screwed Brett: “Brett screwed Brett.” Well, it’s now called the WWE for World Wrestling Entertainment and McMahon is now facing sex trafficking charges. McMahon broke kayfabe to justify why the script was changed for Hart in his last match with the company before leaving for a rival with this now-infamous quote. Watching Dan Campbell’s coaching performance in the NFC Championship Game reminded me of the line.
Credit to San Francisco, but the Lions lost that game. Campbell screwed himself with those coaching decisions. He screwed his players were outplaying the 49ers and had put themselves in the position to win that game. And he screwed a fanbase that has not experienced the joy of an NFL championship since 1957.
Brandon Staley got run out of town after making too many bad decisions despite his aggressiveness being defended by the supposed analytics. His players were initially on record for liking his tactics. But the losses piled up — and his players eventually turned on him. For those who think that cannot happen with this Lions team, just look at what happened to the Philadelphia Eagles. A year ago at this time, the Eagles were playing in the Super Bowl. Less than a year later, the culture inside the locker room completely eroded in a seven-game losing streak to end the season culminating in an embarrassing blowout loss in the playoffs. And Philadelphia has won another Super Bowl in 2018.
Perhaps Campbell will learn from his mistakes. Coaching underdogs with a history of losing is one thing. Protecting double-digit leads in the playoffs is quite another. If Campbell does not grow, things could get very ugly much faster than expected in Motown.
Best of luck — Frank.
Aggressive play-calling is a way for underdogs to overachieve expectations. It made sense for Campbell to instill confidence in his team by taking these chances. These tactics also helped protect a suspect defense that was giving up plenty of points.
But the problem with all the fake punts is that opponents become aware to be prepared for it. The surprise value of the trick has limited returns. Detroit converted on a fake punt early in the season — but when they tried it again in their Thanksgiving Day game against Green Bay, the Packers were ready for it. The Lions failed to execute the play — and Green Bay got the ball just outside the red zone. The Packers soon scored a touchdown to take a 29-14 lead — and they would go on to win by a 29-22 score.
Perhaps the harbinger for the end of Detroit’s 2023-24 season took place last year in their game against New England. In that 29-0 loss, the Lions failed on all six of their fourth down attempts.
Cut to Detroit’s regular season showdown at Dallas against the Cowboys late in the season. Campbell lost his cool by recklessly doubling down by going for the win even though it was fourth and seven (then fourth and four after a Cowboys penalty) after suffering the cosmic injustice of a bad call from the referees after the Lions were too clever for its own good tackle-eligible receiver play. Campbell remained steadfast in not regretting his decision to simply kick the extra point and be willing to play in a tie game late in the fourth quarter. The seeds were planted for Detroit’s historic meltdown in the NFC Championship Game.
The Lions enjoyed a dream first half on the road in San Francisco against the 49ers. And when faced with the opportunity late in the first half to try to score another touchdown with time running out, Campbell made the prudent and, in my mind, prudent decision to settle for a field goal rather than risking not scoring any points with time expiring. Detroit went into halftime with a 24-7 lead. For San Francisco to win, they would need to overcome a three-possession deficit.
The 49ers got the ball first — the Lions scored a victory by holding them to just a field goal. 24-10. Detroit immediately moved the ball down the field with an effective rushing attack. But the play-calling got aggressive with a failed long pass to tight end Sam LaPorta setting up a third-and-five. The Lions chose to run the ball — as if it was two-down territory despite them being in field goal range. Then on fourth and a long one-yard, quarterback Jared Goff’s pass to Josh Reynolds was dropped. Granted a 31-10 lead after scoring a potential touchdown might have been the dagger. But neutralizing the Niners' initial field goal in the second half by matching those three points would have made it a 27-10 game with half the third quarter already burned. A three-possession lead would continue to squeeze the life out of a team and a fan base that had little to cheer about.
Instead, San Francisco got the stop they needed. A few plays later, the Niners got very lucky when an overthrown deep pass from Brock Purdy got tipped up in the air which allowed Brandon Aiyuk to grab it for a 51-yard reception inside Detroit’s five-yard line. Moments later the 49ers are only trailing by seven points. For those of us who believe in momentum, the tables have suddenly turned. Perhaps the Momentum Gods would not intervene with the tipped ball if the Lions simply kicked the field goal. But a 27-17 lead would have felt much better when Detroit got the ball again.
Instead, rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs received a handoff deep on the Lions' side of the field suddenly led by only one score. Gibbs then fumbles, the Niners recover and score the tying touchdown. In a matter of a few moments, a game that seemed almost out of reach was now tied. And a franchise that had never reached the Super Bowl had suddenly blown a 17-point lead.
Maybe Campbell’s aggressiveness helped Detroit win the NFC North and reach the playoffs. But losing cultures don’t flip simply because someone declares it over. Winning cultures come from winning games — and good head coaches are stewards of their players in managing games to secure victories. In this regard, Campbell failed. His decision-making was, in fact, the act of a loser — one who thought seizing a 21-point lead was necessary. He communicated to his team that taking the easier 17-point lead was not going to be enough.
Campbell later defended his decision by uttering something about the 49ers taking back momentum by controlling the time of possession. The only second-half drive that San Francisco had was the one where they settled for a field goal. My dude, if the Niners were going to continue to embark on long-scoring drives, they were risking running out of time. They still needed three drives with just over 22 minutes left in the game. The field goal would have kept the pressure on. Pressure busts pipes.
Even after all this, Campbell had one more ill-advised decision left in him. San Francisco scored a field goal to take a 27-24 lead. The Lions got the ball back and immediately moved down the field to get into field goal range. But once again, when faced with a fourth down, Campbell bypassed the potential game-tying field goal to go for it on fourth down. Once again, Detroit fails to convert. The 49ers move down the field to score a touchdown to take a ten-point lead with about three minutes left in the game. The Lions score a touchdown but then fail to recover an onside kick.
The decision to forego a game-tying field represented the three-point margin in their 34-31 loss. While taking a potential 31-27 lead would have been better, the risk of missing the fourth down and creating the possibility of San Francisco scoring a touchdown to take a two-possession lead late in the game was of graver magnitude. I am aware of Expected Points Added models that called for the Lions to go for (both) fourth downs. Those models do not reveal their methodology regarding how they derive their numbers. Those models also do not take momentum into account — in fact, the underlying assumption is that momentum does not exist since it would invalidate their sample sizes since the data points may have circumstances no longer applicable. Who are you going to believe — businesses promoting their analytics or your lying eyes?
In hindsight, Detroit’s second-half collapse was staggering. The fumble and the several dropped passes all happened after the missed fourth down when they had a 17-point lead midway through the third quarter. I consider it the most obvious example of negative momentum in action in recent history since the 2018 Western Conference Finals in the NBA when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight shots from 3-point range against Golden State.
When discussing what happened in the famed Montreal Screwjob when professional wrestler Brett “the Hit Man” Hart lost his championship belt in an unscripted turn of events orchestrated by World Wrestling Federation owner Vince McMahon proclaimed in denying that he screwed Brett: “Brett screwed Brett.” Well, it’s now called the WWE for World Wrestling Entertainment and McMahon is now facing sex trafficking charges. McMahon broke kayfabe to justify why the script was changed for Hart in his last match with the company before leaving for a rival with this now-infamous quote. Watching Dan Campbell’s coaching performance in the NFC Championship Game reminded me of the line.
Credit to San Francisco, but the Lions lost that game. Campbell screwed himself with those coaching decisions. He screwed his players were outplaying the 49ers and had put themselves in the position to win that game. And he screwed a fanbase that has not experienced the joy of an NFL championship since 1957.
Brandon Staley got run out of town after making too many bad decisions despite his aggressiveness being defended by the supposed analytics. His players were initially on record for liking his tactics. But the losses piled up — and his players eventually turned on him. For those who think that cannot happen with this Lions team, just look at what happened to the Philadelphia Eagles. A year ago at this time, the Eagles were playing in the Super Bowl. Less than a year later, the culture inside the locker room completely eroded in a seven-game losing streak to end the season culminating in an embarrassing blowout loss in the playoffs. And Philadelphia has won another Super Bowl in 2018.
Perhaps Campbell will learn from his mistakes. Coaching underdogs with a history of losing is one thing. Protecting double-digit leads in the playoffs is quite another. If Campbell does not grow, things could get very ugly much faster than expected in Motown.
Best of luck — Frank.
