Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/22/2024

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Venue:  Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Where to Watch:  TNT, MAX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +4, Timberwolves -4; Over/Under:  206.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +4, Timberwolves -4; Over/Under:  206.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Mavericks +4.5, Timberwolves -4.5; Over/Under:  206.5 points

Dallas Mavericks:  50-32 (1st place, Southwest Division)

Minnesota Timberwolves:  56-26 (3rd place, Northwest Division)

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Dallas Mavericks:  7-3 last 10

Minnesota Timberwolves:  7-3 last 10

The Mavericks are entering this game with a 50-32 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 25-16 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Thunder in game 6 of that series, Luka Dončić led the team in points in that game with 29 while Derrick Jones Jr. and Kyrie Irving each were next on the team with 22 points. Luka Dončić led the team in assists in that game with 10 while Dereck Lively II led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 51.2% from the field, 47.1% from 3-point range, and 70.8% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 115.6 PPG against them. The Mavericks have an ATS record of 55-39 this season and their O/U record is 41-52-1.

The Timberwolves are entering this game with a 56-26 record overall to finish the regular season and they were 30-11 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with wins coming against the Denver Nuggets in their last 2 games. In their last game against the Nuggets in game 7 of that series, Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels each led the team in points in that game with 23 while Anthony Edwards was next on the team with 16 points. Anthony Edwards led the team in assists in that game with 7 while Karl-Anthony Towns led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 39.2% from the field, 29.4% from 3-point range, and 86.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 113 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 106.5 PPG against them. The Timberwolves have an ATS record of 48-43-2 this season and their O/U record is 47-45-1.

The current betting odds have the Timberwolves listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 1 of a 7 game series between the 3rd seeded Timberwolves and the 5th seeded Mavericks for the Western Conference Finals of the NBA playoffs. The Timberwolves have looked really good in the playoffs as they just knocked out the defending champions in a series where they faced a lot of adversity. They swept the Suns in the 1st round of the playoffs and ended up taking a 2-0 series lead on the road against the Nuggets before losing 3 games in a row in that series to go down 3-2, but they dug in deep with their backs against the wall and they threw everything they had at the Nuggets to win another 2 games in a row and end the series in Denver. That was a tough series for them to win but they have a ton of momentum on their side now from the 3-2 comeback and they are going to carry that momentum into this 1st home game of this series. The Mavericks have also looked good in the playoffs but they have played in a lot more games so far. The Mavericks only needed 6 games in their last series to knock out the number 1 seed in the West, the Thunder, but they also needed 6 games in the 1st Round to knock out the Clippers. The Mavericks have also been the road team to start each of their 2 series and in both of those, they lost the 1st game of the series on the road by double digits. The Mavericks are going to need a game here to adjust to the Timberwolves like they have needed in their other 2 series too, and the Timberwolves will make sure to bring their best effort to take a series lead on their home court. The best way to place a bet here is on the Timberwolves to cover the spread in this game.

Mavericks Timberwolves Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Wednesday, May 22, 2024 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Timberwolves 104 Mavericks 92.

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Dallas Mavericks: 31-16 ATS in road games. 29-18 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent. 24-14 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 5-1 UNDER when playing with 3 or more days rest. 15-8 UNDER revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. 12-4 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: 5-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 3-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. 5-9 ATS after a combined score of 190 points or less. 9-5 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest. 10-5 UNDER off a win against a division rival. 4-1 UNDER off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Dallas Mavericks:  O. Prosper (PF) Out indefinitely - Ankle. M. Kleber (PF) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. G. Brown III (SF) Out indefinitely - Personal.

Minnesota Timberwolves:  J. Clark (SG) Out indefinitely - Achilles.

“It wasn’t Luka or Kai making the game winner. It was the trust of Luka and the ball touches the paint, they collapse, he trusted P.J. We find a way to win.” - Jason Kidd after his team’s win against the OKC Thunder in game 7 of that series on Saturday, winning that series 4-2.

“It was tough, man, because I couldn’t find myself, my rhythm tonight. So I just had to trust my teammates. … I just had to make the right plays throughout the rest of the game. I did that and my teammates made shots. Big shout-out to those guys.” - Anthony Edwards after their win against the Nuggets in game 7 of that series on Sunday, winning that series 4-3.

PG Luka Doncic

SG Kyrie Irving

SF Derrick Jones Jr.

PF P.J. Washington 

C Daniel Gafford

PG Mike Conley

SG Anthony Edwards

SF Jaden McDaniels

PF Karl-Anthony Towns

C Rudy Gobert

PPG: L. Doncic (33.9)

APG: L. Doncic (9.8)

Reb/G: L. Doncic (9.2)

PPG: A. Edwards (25.9)

APG: M. Conley (5.9)

Reb/G: R. Gobert (12.9)

Coaches:

Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd (3rd season)

Minnesota Timberwolves: Chris Finch (4th season)