by Hollywood Sports
Sunday, Apr 30, 2023At first glance, it looked perhaps too easy to side with the Connecticut Huskies against the San Diego State Aztecs in the college basketball National Championship Game. UConn had been a freight train in the Big Dance with all five of their victories by 13 or more points. They dominated a well-coached Miami Hurricanes despite Jordan Hawkins dealing with a stomach bug and Andre Jackson, Jr. only playing 22 minutes due to foul trouble. Most of the college basketball experts were siding with the Huskies to win and cover the 7.5 points they were laying as the favorite. The betting public was more mixed as they were giving more credit to an Aztecs team that was one of the best defensive teams in the nation to keep things close.
I like fading the cadre of college basketball experts when their group think form a clear consensus on a side. But this was not a situation to get too cute. Sometimes the contrarian play is the wrong side — and that became evident in UConn’s 76-59 victory to easily win and cover the point spread. Thankfully, I thought better of my contrarian instincts in this instance. Here are a few of the reasons why.
Jim Larranaga did not have many answers to slow down the Huskies in the Final Four — and San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher has 48 hours to address that conundrum. UConn demonstrated their vast potential in the fall — and after hitting a couple of bumps early in Big East play, they were steamrolling teams again. The Huskies had covered 16 straight games against non-conference opponents with an average winning margin of +24.7 points per game — and they have covered the point spread by +11.9 points per game in those 16 contests. There is a logic to that success. Head coach Dan Hurley felt his team is particularly difficult to prepare against — especially if the team lacked familiarity with the Huskies' approach. As Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said after their 28-point loss to UConn last weekend, only 48 hours to prepare his team to play UConn was overwhelming. Handling Adama Sanoga’s post-up game is a chore — and then Donovan Clingan presents an entirely different challenge in the lob game. Defending Hawkins coming off the Huskies’ multiple off-ball sets and screens is demanding. Jackson presents a challenge in his role as a point forward. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their four previous games by double-digits. Their floor for scoring in this game was probably at least 68 points — they had reached that number in ten straight games while scoring at least 82 points six times in that stretch.
But it was the play of the Huskies’ defense that is even more impressive. They held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Now they were playing an Atzecs team that is susceptible to scoring droughts. San Diego State has scored no more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they had scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They were only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc seemed unlikely. The Aztecs took many of their shots from the midrange — and now they were playing a UConn team that ranked sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc.
The Aztecs were the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite Eight game and then their Final Four game by just one point. They had endured a difficult schedule — but they had been good matchups for them since FAU, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, and the College of Charleston all lived (and died) by their 3-point shooting. While UConn was a good 3-point shooting team, they probably had the most reliable scoring threats inside the arc that San Diego State will have played. Sanoga was shooting 63.9% from inside the arc — and Clingon makes 65.9% of his 2-point shots. Jackson was making 54.1% of his shots inside the arc — and starter Alex Karaban was making 59.8% of his 2-pointers.
The Aztecs had dug themselves into several holes in this tournament — but they had used their defense and offensive rebounding to climb back against Alabama, Creighton, and FAU. Not only does UConn have reliable scoring options to stop scoring slumps but they also ranked 67th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding 25.9% of their missed shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less. They had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning six or more games in a row — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They held their opponents to 40.1% shooting while making 46.5% of their shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to 42% or lower shooting.
There was one final nugget that convinced me to strongly endorse and invest heavily in the Huskies. UConn was the sixth team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to win their first five games in the tournament by 13 or more points. Four of those previous five teams then went on to win the Championship Game by double-digits: Michigan State won by 13 points in 2000; Duke won by 10 points in 2001; North Carolina won by 17 points in 2009; Villanova won by 17 points in 2018. The 2016 Tar Heels were the lone team to lose in the Championship Game after beating their first five opponents by 13 or more points — and they played a Villanova team with more balance and scoring threats than this Aztecs’ group.
That 2018 Villanova team was of particular significance to me since I had taken the contrarian route in backing Michigan in that game. I learned a lesson from that game. Avoid standing in front of freight trains if what you are looking at is, in fact, a freight train. Sometimes contrarianism is Fool’s Gold. And sometimes the college basketball expert class gets one right when they form a near-consensus. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
More importantly, we won our College Basketball Game of the Year by seeing the forest through the trees regarding the Connecticut Huskies.
Best of luck — Frank.
I like fading the cadre of college basketball experts when their group think form a clear consensus on a side. But this was not a situation to get too cute. Sometimes the contrarian play is the wrong side — and that became evident in UConn’s 76-59 victory to easily win and cover the point spread. Thankfully, I thought better of my contrarian instincts in this instance. Here are a few of the reasons why.
Jim Larranaga did not have many answers to slow down the Huskies in the Final Four — and San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher has 48 hours to address that conundrum. UConn demonstrated their vast potential in the fall — and after hitting a couple of bumps early in Big East play, they were steamrolling teams again. The Huskies had covered 16 straight games against non-conference opponents with an average winning margin of +24.7 points per game — and they have covered the point spread by +11.9 points per game in those 16 contests. There is a logic to that success. Head coach Dan Hurley felt his team is particularly difficult to prepare against — especially if the team lacked familiarity with the Huskies' approach. As Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said after their 28-point loss to UConn last weekend, only 48 hours to prepare his team to play UConn was overwhelming. Handling Adama Sanoga’s post-up game is a chore — and then Donovan Clingan presents an entirely different challenge in the lob game. Defending Hawkins coming off the Huskies’ multiple off-ball sets and screens is demanding. Jackson presents a challenge in his role as a point forward. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their four previous games by double-digits. Their floor for scoring in this game was probably at least 68 points — they had reached that number in ten straight games while scoring at least 82 points six times in that stretch.
But it was the play of the Huskies’ defense that is even more impressive. They held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Now they were playing an Atzecs team that is susceptible to scoring droughts. San Diego State has scored no more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they had scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They were only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc seemed unlikely. The Aztecs took many of their shots from the midrange — and now they were playing a UConn team that ranked sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc.
The Aztecs were the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite Eight game and then their Final Four game by just one point. They had endured a difficult schedule — but they had been good matchups for them since FAU, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, and the College of Charleston all lived (and died) by their 3-point shooting. While UConn was a good 3-point shooting team, they probably had the most reliable scoring threats inside the arc that San Diego State will have played. Sanoga was shooting 63.9% from inside the arc — and Clingon makes 65.9% of his 2-point shots. Jackson was making 54.1% of his shots inside the arc — and starter Alex Karaban was making 59.8% of his 2-pointers.
The Aztecs had dug themselves into several holes in this tournament — but they had used their defense and offensive rebounding to climb back against Alabama, Creighton, and FAU. Not only does UConn have reliable scoring options to stop scoring slumps but they also ranked 67th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding 25.9% of their missed shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less. They had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning six or more games in a row — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They held their opponents to 40.1% shooting while making 46.5% of their shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to 42% or lower shooting.
There was one final nugget that convinced me to strongly endorse and invest heavily in the Huskies. UConn was the sixth team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to win their first five games in the tournament by 13 or more points. Four of those previous five teams then went on to win the Championship Game by double-digits: Michigan State won by 13 points in 2000; Duke won by 10 points in 2001; North Carolina won by 17 points in 2009; Villanova won by 17 points in 2018. The 2016 Tar Heels were the lone team to lose in the Championship Game after beating their first five opponents by 13 or more points — and they played a Villanova team with more balance and scoring threats than this Aztecs’ group.
That 2018 Villanova team was of particular significance to me since I had taken the contrarian route in backing Michigan in that game. I learned a lesson from that game. Avoid standing in front of freight trains if what you are looking at is, in fact, a freight train. Sometimes contrarianism is Fool’s Gold. And sometimes the college basketball expert class gets one right when they form a near-consensus. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
More importantly, we won our College Basketball Game of the Year by seeing the forest through the trees regarding the Connecticut Huskies.
Best of luck — Frank.
