by Kyle Hunter
Thursday, Oct 19, 2023The college football regular season is now more than half over. It’s crazy to think that we are this far along, but here we are getting to late October and the weather is changing in a big way.
Let’s go ahead and take a look at a late season ATS angle to watch.
The Angle Is As Follows:
From Game Number 6 or Later in the Regular Season- The team is coming off a loss and has won 75% or more of their games on the season thus far. The team coming off the loss is now the favorite in their next game. Fading this team has been the way to go- what are the results?
In this spot, the great team coming off the loss is 156-195 ATS (44.4% ATS). It has been a great fade. When the team is coming off a straight up loss of 17 points or more, that team is 47-67 ATS (41.4% ATS) in that next game.
What kind of teams do we usually find in this spot? What teams meet this fade system/angle this week?
This is usually a team that has just lost their first game in the mid to late portion of the season.
The teams in this fade spot this week are Texas, Oregon, and USC.
In my opinion- Texas is in a unique spot here because they had a bye week after their rivalry loss to Oklahoma. The Longhorns absolutely can still reach the four team playoff if they right the ship now.
Oregon lost in an epic contest against Washington. They outgained the Huskies by more than 100 yards, but the Ducks went 0/3 on fourth down and lost a heartbreaker.
USC was stomped at Notre Dame, and the Trojans are the team I doubt the most as far as their potential to reach their preseason goal of reaching the playoff.
Do note that this is simply an angle to watch and not bets that I’m making this week. Also, keep in mind that each situation should be investigated in depth. Has the team had their bubble burst or do they still have everything to play for? It’s just another angle to keep an eye on as you handicap games in the second half of the regular season.
