by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Oct 31, 2024For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL: Head coach Mike MacIntyre is probably on the hot seat after overseeing consecutive 4-8 seasons in his first two years as the Golden Panthers head coach. In his defense, he did inherit a team that had lost 18 of 19 games before he was hired. MacIntyre has a proven track record in turning losing programs around. He got Colorado to the Pac-12 Championship Game with ten victories in his fourth season as the Buffaloes head coach. He led San Jose State to an 11-2 record in his third season with the Spartans. FIU has 14 starters back from last year’s squad — and they are getting better and deeper on the offensive and defensive lines. But after -3 net close victories in games decided by one scoring possession last year, they have a 6-2 record in games decided by eight points or less in the MacIntyre era — so they may be worse than their two-four win seasons suggests. They got outgained by -144 yards against Conference USA opponents last season. They are also losing in the transfer portal, with players like wide receiver Keith Mitchell getting poached by Notre Dame after generating more than 1100 receiving yards last year. They have an intriguing talent at quarterback in sophomore Keyone Jenkins. The former Auburn commit threw for more than 2400 yards last year and added 324 non-sack rushing yards.
JAMES MADISON: The Dukes went 19-5 in their first two seasons as an FBS program — and they won their first bowl game appearance in program history with their 31-21 victory against the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. But this is a team that was almost completely overhauled after that triumph. Head coach Curt Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana. Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas State leaving a big hole at quarterback. The offense also lost their top three running backs, their top five targets in the passing game, and two All-Conference on the offensive line. The defense lost their top five defensive linemen, their three starting linebackers, and ten of their top ten defensive backs. Only one of their top nine tacklers are back and just four of the 18 players who played 300 or more snaps last season. Overall, James Madison lost 96% of their production either to graduation or the transfer portal. Bob Chesney is the new head coach after five seasons at Holy Cross.
KENNESAW STATE: After nine seasons as a football program at the FS level including four playoff appearances, the Owls make the jump to the FBS in Conference USA this season. They are more likely to struggle in the transition as Sam Houston did last season rather than find immediate success as Jacksonville State did. Brian Bohannon is their only head coach in program history and he was crafty about sandbagging some of his best players to only play four games last year to preserve another year of eligibility. So, with 16 starters back from last year’s team, this group is better than their 3-6 record. Kennesaw State will deploy a pistol offense that operates zone-read RPOs. Sophomore quarterback Davis Bryson was one of the players who was kept out of five games to preserve another season of eligibility. He will run the ball — but he only completed two passes last season which makes the entire passing game for this offense into question. Since 2015, this program has averaged 297.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game — so running the ball will likely remain their priority when they are on offense. The Owls' defense ranked ninth in the FCS by only allowing 17.9 Points-Per-Game — but they did not register a win against an FBS opponent. Depth on that side of the ball will be a challenge as they make the jump up to the FBS and Conference USA.
LIBERTY: The Flames dominated their Conference USA competition in their debut in that conference. They were 13-0 before getting exposed against Oregon in their 45-6 loss in the Fiesta Bowl. Second-year head coach Jamey Chadwell has 12 starters back from that team led by fifth-year quarterback Kaiden Salter. The former Tennessee recruit was a great fit in Chadwell’s high-octane spread triple-option attack. He is a legitimate NFL prospect given his dual-threat skills. He passed for 2876 yards and 32 touchdowns to just six interceptions last year — and he added another 1154 non-sack rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Liberty led the nation by generating 293.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The offensive line could be a concern with only two starters returning after that unit took a hit in the transfer portal. The defense is the bigger concern as Oregon demonstrated in the bowl game. The Flames must replace linebacker Tyren DuPree who was Conference USA’s Defensive Player of the Year. The defense also lost defensive backs Kobe Singleton and Preston Hodge in the transfer portal to Oregon State and Colorado. Chadwell was aggressive in the portal in adding talent on that side of the ball at all three levels including seven power conference transfers to add size to the defensive line. Led by Chadwell’s coaching acumen on offense and an NFL prospect at quarterback, the Flames will score plenty of points which will keep them competitive against conference opponents. Possibly qualifying for the College Football Playoff will depend on better play from their defense.
LOUISIANA TECH: The Bulldogs have endured three straight 3-9 seasons which likely places head coach Sonny Cumbie on the hot seat in the third year with the program. Only ten starters return this season with more quality players leaving the program from the transfer portal than Cumbie is bringing in. The former TCU and Texas Tech offensive coordinator oversaw a mediocre offense that ranked 76th and 66th in the nation by scoring 25.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 384.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Junior Jack Turner looks to be the starting quarterback this season after the perennially underachieving Hank Bachmeier transferred again (this time to Wake Forest). Turner played in eight games last season with four starts but completed only 56.8% of his passes for 1017 passing yards with five touchdown passes but five interceptions. The wide receiver room is unproven with no returning starters and seven transfers joining the team. But the defense is the bigger problem after that unit ranked 114th and 117th by giving up 33.4 PPG and 418.2 YPG. Just five players are back from that group. This is a program that does not have many reliable playmakers on either side of the football.
LOUISVILLE: The Cardinals were a success last year in the first season under head coach Jeff Brohm as they reached the ACC Championship Game and finished with a 10-4 record. However, they did lose their last three games including to Florida State in the ACC title game and then to USC in the Holiday Bowl by a 42-28 score. Brohm brought in 25 players from the transfer portal last season and he hit the transfer window hard again this year by adding 28 new players from other programs to complement 15 returning starters. Quarterback Jack Plummer has run out of eligibility after Brohm brought him in from California after originally recruiting him and coaching him for four years at Purdue. Brohm turned to Texas Tech this time around to bring in seventh-year senior quarterback Tyler Shough who has a strong arm but has only played 22 games in the last four years due to injuries. The defense added 14 transfer players to the seven returning starters to bolster a group that ranked 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 317.1 total Yards-Per-Game. Most of the incoming transfers are seniors which makes the long-term culture-building at Louisville an issue. Brohm is a great coach — but perpetually adding 25 or so new players with expectations to play immediately may be unsustainable.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE: After 18 seasons under Rick Stockstill, the Blue Raiders have a new head coach this season with former Vanderbilt skipper Derek Mason taking over this program. He inherits only seven starters back from a group that finished 4-8 last year. Junior Nicholas Vattiato returns after the dual-threat quarterback passed for 3092 yards and added another 397 yards on the ground. Experience returns at running back but this offense ranked just 84th in the nation Rush Success Rate last season. The offensive line lost four of their top five starters and Vattiato lost five of his top six targets from the passing game. The roster lost several starters from last season including two from the offensive line and another four starters on defense including three on the defensive line and a starting linebacker. Only three starters are back on that side of the ball. Mason has a good reputation as a defensive coach, but he has a significant rebuild on his hands after the Blue Raiders ranked 86th in the nation by surrendering 395.6 total Yards-Per-Game.
NEW MEXICO STATE: The Aggies come off a historic season for this program where they won ten games and played in the Conference USA Championship Game in its inaugural season with the conference. The team won 16 of their last 22 games under head coach Jerry Kill who consistently gets the most out of his talent. But his ongoing health issues along with some conflicts with his administration led to him leaving the program to take the job of chief consultant to the head coach and senior offensive advisor at Vanderbilt. Conference USA Player of the Year Diego Pavia joined Kill in the move to Nashville leaving this team with a massive hole at quarterback. Former UNLV head coach and the wide receivers coach the last two seasons in Las Cruces takes over as the head coach — and he brought in three transfers from FBS programs and another two junior college transfers to compete to be the new starting quarterback. New Mexico State may have become the poster child representing the downside of the transfer portal as their roster was absolutely gutted in the offseason after Kill announced his departure. Besides losing Pavia, the Aggies lost their top two running backs, their top wide receiver and tight end, two starting defensive linemen, and a linebacker in the portal window. Overall, the program lost their top three quarterbacks, their top two running backs, seven of their top eight receivers, their top six defensive linemen, and 11 of their top 13 defensive backs from last season. Sanchez hustled to bring in players — headlined by safety Nick Sessions from Oklahoma State, running back Seth McGowan from Oklahoma, running back Mike Washington from Buffalo, several defensive players from the junior college ranks, and all five of those quarterbacks — but those moves feel like one step forward after taking three steps back. And despite making the conference championship game, New Mexico State got outgained against fellow Conference USA opponents by -7 Yards-Per-Game. On the plus side, four starters return on the offensive line to help what could be a nice running back room. Sanchez needs a quarterback to emerge — and the defense to somehow find itself after replacing so many players. That is a lot to ask for a program that was still an Independent two seasons ago.
OREGON: The Ducks' only two losses last season were to Washington and both were by only three points. Their average margin of victory in their 12 wins was 33 points. Ten starters are back from that 12-2 team — and third-year head coach Dan Lanning added another 31 players to the roster. Lanning is recruited very well and he has 21 freshmen on the team. He also continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal by bringing in 11 new players from other programs. This approach could be risky since the influx of new players who expect to play could disrupt the chemistry of the program. Former Oklahoma (and Central Florida) quarterback Dillon Gabriel should be a replacement for Bo Nix in operating offensive coordinator Will Stein’s high-powered offense. Oregon was second in the nation by both scoring 44.2 Points-Per-Game and generating 531.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense made a big leap in Lanning’s second year with the program by ranking ninth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG and ranking 22nd by limiting these teams to 318.4 YPG. The former Georgia defensive coordinator’s defense allowed -10.9 fewer PPG and -61.2 YPG than in his second season as head coach. The biggest question is on the defensive line with that unit replacing four of the top five players from last season. Lanning brought in two transfers to bolster the depth, but it will be up to some of the 11 blue-chippers he has recruited in the last two seasons to step up and play key roles. On paper, the talent is there. But with the move to the Big Ten, the difference between competing for Pac-12 championships and competing for national championships will depend on the defensive line holding up against stout offensive lines against teams like Michigan and Ohio State.
SAM HOUSTON: After gaming the redshirt process prior to entering the FBS last season, the Bearkats still only posted a 3-9 record last year. K.C. Keeler returns 12 starters back from that team. Keeler brought in Central Michigan transfer Jase Bauer to compete with Grant Gunnell and Hunter Watson who won a national championship at the junior college level. The defense replaces eight of the 13 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last season. Keeler is trying to add heft on both sides of the line of scrimmage whether it be from weight-training or transfer players, but in their second year at the FBS level, size at the line may continue to be the biggest weakness of this team.
SOUTH ALABAMA: The Jaguars took some major hits in the offseason after finishing their season with a 59-10 victory against Eastern Michigan in the 68 Ventures Bowl to finish with a 7-6 record. Three-year head coach Kane Wommack made a surprise move by accepting the defensive coordinator job at Alabama — and he took defensive coordinator Corey Batoon and several defensive players with him. Linebackers coach Will Windham was promoted to be the next defensive coordinator with only three starters back from an outstanding group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 313.2 total Yards-Per-Game. In all, five projected starters on both sides of the ball departed in the transfer portal. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite was promoted to be the new head coach after overseeing a 15-10 record in a previous head coaching stint with Houston. His offense lost a two-time 1000-yard rusher in running back La’Damian Webb along with wide receiver Caullin Lacy who caught 91 balls last year. Applewhite does get back redshirt sophomore Gio Lopez who was MVP in the bowl game after throwing three touchdowns and adding another touchdown on the ground.
SYRACUSE: The Orange won their opening four games last season but then crashed and burned by losing seven of their last nine contests while getting outgained in ACC play by -146 net Yards-Per-Game. After failing to win more than seven games for the fifth straight time, head coach Dino Babers was let go after eight seasons — and then Syracuse made an interesting hire by tapping Fran Brown despite his lack of head coaching or even coordinator experience. Brown was the co-defensive coordinator at Temple in 2019. He has spent his last two seasons as the defensive backs coach at Georgia. But the administration may have made a shrewd hire for two reasons. First, Brown is well-respected as a great recruiter which is something this program desperately needs. Second, Brown has worked closely with three very successful head coaches in his previous stops at Temple with Matt Rhule, at Rutgers with Greg Schiano, and at Georgia with Kirby Smart. Brown has immediately raised the bar when it comes to recruiting — and he has also significantly improved the talent base of the roster through the transfer portal. He brought in nine transfers on both sides of the ball — and his biggest catch was snagging former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord. The senior led the Buckeyes to an 11-1 record last season while completing 66% of his passes for 3170 yards with 24 touchdown passes and six interceptions. McCord’s biggest flaw last year was not winning the Michigan game against what was the best defense in the country. Buckeye nation needed a scapegoat. Perhaps Ohio State wanted a more mobile quarterback with Chip Kelly coming over to be their offensive coordinator — but McCord is a gunslinger. The offense has been held back by their offensive line the last few seasons — and Brown addressed that area by bringing in four transfers to compete with four returning starters. The defense returns six of the 13 players who logged in at least 300 snaps along with the nine transfers. He also hired Elijah Robinson as his defensive coordinator who oversaw several good defenses at Texas A&M and was the Aggies interim head coach after Jimbo Fisher was let go last season.
TROY: After posting a 23-5 record in his two seasons with the Trojans, previous head coach Jon Sumrall left for the Tulane job and took his defensive coordinator and many of his best players with him. Troy won two consecutive Sun Belt Conference Championship Games — but two dozen players entered the transfer portal to go elsewhere. And that does not even take into players like quarterback Gunnar Watson who passed for 3569 who graduated or running back Kimani Vidal who rushed for 1661 yards before entering the NFL draft. In comes Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parkeras the new head coach in a massive rebuild since only three starters return from a group that ranks 129th in the nation in returning production. The one returning starter at wide receiver was Chris Lewis who caught 10 touchdowns from 735 receiving yards but he will miss the season after being diagnosed with cancer. Parker was aggressive in the transfer portal to shore up the roster — but Troy is playing catch-up this season after all the losses and defections after two fantastic seasons.
UTAH: The Utes were ravaged by injuries last season — especially on the offensive side of the football. They only generated 348.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 23.2 Points-Per-Game which ranked 92nd and 98th in the FBS — and both those marks were the worst for the program since 2011. Tight end Brant Keith and running back Micah Bernard return — but the key is getting back quarterback Cameron Rising. In his last two seasons before tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago, he completed 64% of his passes for 5527 passing yards with 46 touchdown passes and just 13 interceptions. He ran for another 465 yards with six touchdowns in the 2022-23 season — and he has only been sacked 15 times in his last two seasons. He is a gamer who gives this offense some sorely needed swagger. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has been active in the transfer adding skill position talent on the offensive side of the ball. His defenses are consistently very good as he enters his 20th season running this program. Nine starters and 12 of the 17 players who played at least 300 snaps are back from a group that ranked 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to 307.2 total YPG. Utah did lose defensive end Jonah Elliss and safeties Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki to the NFL — and they are replacing four of their top five in the defensive backfield from last season. But the Utes are an immediate contender to win the Big 12 in their first season moving on from the Pac-12 — especially if Rising returns to his previous form.
UTEP: After the Miners lost 11 of their last 15 games, Dana Dimel was let go after six seasons as the head coach. In comes the 34-year-old high-energy Scotty Walden after four winning seasons as the head coach at Austin Peay. He pledges to rely less on junior college transfers to instead emphasize recruiting high school players in Texas. With only nine starters back from the UTEP team that finished 3-9 last year, Walden brought in 47 new players onto the team. He leaned heavily on his players at Austin Peay with 12 of those players transferring over including ten offensive players and five starters from last season’s Governors’ offense that generated 426.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 34.1 Points-Per-Game. While it is easy to be skeptical about how successful an offense reliant on FCS talent continuing to perform at a high level against FBS competition, this was the model that Greg Kinne effectively deployed last season at Texas State with many of his players from Incarnate Word. But the offensive line lost their top six players and the defense replaces nine of the 16 players who played at least 200 snaps last season.
Best of luck for us -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL: Head coach Mike MacIntyre is probably on the hot seat after overseeing consecutive 4-8 seasons in his first two years as the Golden Panthers head coach. In his defense, he did inherit a team that had lost 18 of 19 games before he was hired. MacIntyre has a proven track record in turning losing programs around. He got Colorado to the Pac-12 Championship Game with ten victories in his fourth season as the Buffaloes head coach. He led San Jose State to an 11-2 record in his third season with the Spartans. FIU has 14 starters back from last year’s squad — and they are getting better and deeper on the offensive and defensive lines. But after -3 net close victories in games decided by one scoring possession last year, they have a 6-2 record in games decided by eight points or less in the MacIntyre era — so they may be worse than their two-four win seasons suggests. They got outgained by -144 yards against Conference USA opponents last season. They are also losing in the transfer portal, with players like wide receiver Keith Mitchell getting poached by Notre Dame after generating more than 1100 receiving yards last year. They have an intriguing talent at quarterback in sophomore Keyone Jenkins. The former Auburn commit threw for more than 2400 yards last year and added 324 non-sack rushing yards.
JAMES MADISON: The Dukes went 19-5 in their first two seasons as an FBS program — and they won their first bowl game appearance in program history with their 31-21 victory against the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. But this is a team that was almost completely overhauled after that triumph. Head coach Curt Cignetti took the head coaching job at Indiana. Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas State leaving a big hole at quarterback. The offense also lost their top three running backs, their top five targets in the passing game, and two All-Conference on the offensive line. The defense lost their top five defensive linemen, their three starting linebackers, and ten of their top ten defensive backs. Only one of their top nine tacklers are back and just four of the 18 players who played 300 or more snaps last season. Overall, James Madison lost 96% of their production either to graduation or the transfer portal. Bob Chesney is the new head coach after five seasons at Holy Cross.
KENNESAW STATE: After nine seasons as a football program at the FS level including four playoff appearances, the Owls make the jump to the FBS in Conference USA this season. They are more likely to struggle in the transition as Sam Houston did last season rather than find immediate success as Jacksonville State did. Brian Bohannon is their only head coach in program history and he was crafty about sandbagging some of his best players to only play four games last year to preserve another year of eligibility. So, with 16 starters back from last year’s team, this group is better than their 3-6 record. Kennesaw State will deploy a pistol offense that operates zone-read RPOs. Sophomore quarterback Davis Bryson was one of the players who was kept out of five games to preserve another season of eligibility. He will run the ball — but he only completed two passes last season which makes the entire passing game for this offense into question. Since 2015, this program has averaged 297.6 rushing Yards-Per-Game — so running the ball will likely remain their priority when they are on offense. The Owls' defense ranked ninth in the FCS by only allowing 17.9 Points-Per-Game — but they did not register a win against an FBS opponent. Depth on that side of the ball will be a challenge as they make the jump up to the FBS and Conference USA.
LIBERTY: The Flames dominated their Conference USA competition in their debut in that conference. They were 13-0 before getting exposed against Oregon in their 45-6 loss in the Fiesta Bowl. Second-year head coach Jamey Chadwell has 12 starters back from that team led by fifth-year quarterback Kaiden Salter. The former Tennessee recruit was a great fit in Chadwell’s high-octane spread triple-option attack. He is a legitimate NFL prospect given his dual-threat skills. He passed for 2876 yards and 32 touchdowns to just six interceptions last year — and he added another 1154 non-sack rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Liberty led the nation by generating 293.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The offensive line could be a concern with only two starters returning after that unit took a hit in the transfer portal. The defense is the bigger concern as Oregon demonstrated in the bowl game. The Flames must replace linebacker Tyren DuPree who was Conference USA’s Defensive Player of the Year. The defense also lost defensive backs Kobe Singleton and Preston Hodge in the transfer portal to Oregon State and Colorado. Chadwell was aggressive in the portal in adding talent on that side of the ball at all three levels including seven power conference transfers to add size to the defensive line. Led by Chadwell’s coaching acumen on offense and an NFL prospect at quarterback, the Flames will score plenty of points which will keep them competitive against conference opponents. Possibly qualifying for the College Football Playoff will depend on better play from their defense.
LOUISIANA TECH: The Bulldogs have endured three straight 3-9 seasons which likely places head coach Sonny Cumbie on the hot seat in the third year with the program. Only ten starters return this season with more quality players leaving the program from the transfer portal than Cumbie is bringing in. The former TCU and Texas Tech offensive coordinator oversaw a mediocre offense that ranked 76th and 66th in the nation by scoring 25.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 384.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Junior Jack Turner looks to be the starting quarterback this season after the perennially underachieving Hank Bachmeier transferred again (this time to Wake Forest). Turner played in eight games last season with four starts but completed only 56.8% of his passes for 1017 passing yards with five touchdown passes but five interceptions. The wide receiver room is unproven with no returning starters and seven transfers joining the team. But the defense is the bigger problem after that unit ranked 114th and 117th by giving up 33.4 PPG and 418.2 YPG. Just five players are back from that group. This is a program that does not have many reliable playmakers on either side of the football.
LOUISVILLE: The Cardinals were a success last year in the first season under head coach Jeff Brohm as they reached the ACC Championship Game and finished with a 10-4 record. However, they did lose their last three games including to Florida State in the ACC title game and then to USC in the Holiday Bowl by a 42-28 score. Brohm brought in 25 players from the transfer portal last season and he hit the transfer window hard again this year by adding 28 new players from other programs to complement 15 returning starters. Quarterback Jack Plummer has run out of eligibility after Brohm brought him in from California after originally recruiting him and coaching him for four years at Purdue. Brohm turned to Texas Tech this time around to bring in seventh-year senior quarterback Tyler Shough who has a strong arm but has only played 22 games in the last four years due to injuries. The defense added 14 transfer players to the seven returning starters to bolster a group that ranked 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 317.1 total Yards-Per-Game. Most of the incoming transfers are seniors which makes the long-term culture-building at Louisville an issue. Brohm is a great coach — but perpetually adding 25 or so new players with expectations to play immediately may be unsustainable.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE: After 18 seasons under Rick Stockstill, the Blue Raiders have a new head coach this season with former Vanderbilt skipper Derek Mason taking over this program. He inherits only seven starters back from a group that finished 4-8 last year. Junior Nicholas Vattiato returns after the dual-threat quarterback passed for 3092 yards and added another 397 yards on the ground. Experience returns at running back but this offense ranked just 84th in the nation Rush Success Rate last season. The offensive line lost four of their top five starters and Vattiato lost five of his top six targets from the passing game. The roster lost several starters from last season including two from the offensive line and another four starters on defense including three on the defensive line and a starting linebacker. Only three starters are back on that side of the ball. Mason has a good reputation as a defensive coach, but he has a significant rebuild on his hands after the Blue Raiders ranked 86th in the nation by surrendering 395.6 total Yards-Per-Game.
NEW MEXICO STATE: The Aggies come off a historic season for this program where they won ten games and played in the Conference USA Championship Game in its inaugural season with the conference. The team won 16 of their last 22 games under head coach Jerry Kill who consistently gets the most out of his talent. But his ongoing health issues along with some conflicts with his administration led to him leaving the program to take the job of chief consultant to the head coach and senior offensive advisor at Vanderbilt. Conference USA Player of the Year Diego Pavia joined Kill in the move to Nashville leaving this team with a massive hole at quarterback. Former UNLV head coach and the wide receivers coach the last two seasons in Las Cruces takes over as the head coach — and he brought in three transfers from FBS programs and another two junior college transfers to compete to be the new starting quarterback. New Mexico State may have become the poster child representing the downside of the transfer portal as their roster was absolutely gutted in the offseason after Kill announced his departure. Besides losing Pavia, the Aggies lost their top two running backs, their top wide receiver and tight end, two starting defensive linemen, and a linebacker in the portal window. Overall, the program lost their top three quarterbacks, their top two running backs, seven of their top eight receivers, their top six defensive linemen, and 11 of their top 13 defensive backs from last season. Sanchez hustled to bring in players — headlined by safety Nick Sessions from Oklahoma State, running back Seth McGowan from Oklahoma, running back Mike Washington from Buffalo, several defensive players from the junior college ranks, and all five of those quarterbacks — but those moves feel like one step forward after taking three steps back. And despite making the conference championship game, New Mexico State got outgained against fellow Conference USA opponents by -7 Yards-Per-Game. On the plus side, four starters return on the offensive line to help what could be a nice running back room. Sanchez needs a quarterback to emerge — and the defense to somehow find itself after replacing so many players. That is a lot to ask for a program that was still an Independent two seasons ago.
OREGON: The Ducks' only two losses last season were to Washington and both were by only three points. Their average margin of victory in their 12 wins was 33 points. Ten starters are back from that 12-2 team — and third-year head coach Dan Lanning added another 31 players to the roster. Lanning is recruited very well and he has 21 freshmen on the team. He also continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal by bringing in 11 new players from other programs. This approach could be risky since the influx of new players who expect to play could disrupt the chemistry of the program. Former Oklahoma (and Central Florida) quarterback Dillon Gabriel should be a replacement for Bo Nix in operating offensive coordinator Will Stein’s high-powered offense. Oregon was second in the nation by both scoring 44.2 Points-Per-Game and generating 531.4 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense made a big leap in Lanning’s second year with the program by ranking ninth in the FBS by holding their opponents to 16.5 PPG and ranking 22nd by limiting these teams to 318.4 YPG. The former Georgia defensive coordinator’s defense allowed -10.9 fewer PPG and -61.2 YPG than in his second season as head coach. The biggest question is on the defensive line with that unit replacing four of the top five players from last season. Lanning brought in two transfers to bolster the depth, but it will be up to some of the 11 blue-chippers he has recruited in the last two seasons to step up and play key roles. On paper, the talent is there. But with the move to the Big Ten, the difference between competing for Pac-12 championships and competing for national championships will depend on the defensive line holding up against stout offensive lines against teams like Michigan and Ohio State.
SAM HOUSTON: After gaming the redshirt process prior to entering the FBS last season, the Bearkats still only posted a 3-9 record last year. K.C. Keeler returns 12 starters back from that team. Keeler brought in Central Michigan transfer Jase Bauer to compete with Grant Gunnell and Hunter Watson who won a national championship at the junior college level. The defense replaces eight of the 13 players who logged in at least 200 snaps last season. Keeler is trying to add heft on both sides of the line of scrimmage whether it be from weight-training or transfer players, but in their second year at the FBS level, size at the line may continue to be the biggest weakness of this team.
SOUTH ALABAMA: The Jaguars took some major hits in the offseason after finishing their season with a 59-10 victory against Eastern Michigan in the 68 Ventures Bowl to finish with a 7-6 record. Three-year head coach Kane Wommack made a surprise move by accepting the defensive coordinator job at Alabama — and he took defensive coordinator Corey Batoon and several defensive players with him. Linebackers coach Will Windham was promoted to be the next defensive coordinator with only three starters back from an outstanding group that ranked 15th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 313.2 total Yards-Per-Game. In all, five projected starters on both sides of the ball departed in the transfer portal. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite was promoted to be the new head coach after overseeing a 15-10 record in a previous head coaching stint with Houston. His offense lost a two-time 1000-yard rusher in running back La’Damian Webb along with wide receiver Caullin Lacy who caught 91 balls last year. Applewhite does get back redshirt sophomore Gio Lopez who was MVP in the bowl game after throwing three touchdowns and adding another touchdown on the ground.
SYRACUSE: The Orange won their opening four games last season but then crashed and burned by losing seven of their last nine contests while getting outgained in ACC play by -146 net Yards-Per-Game. After failing to win more than seven games for the fifth straight time, head coach Dino Babers was let go after eight seasons — and then Syracuse made an interesting hire by tapping Fran Brown despite his lack of head coaching or even coordinator experience. Brown was the co-defensive coordinator at Temple in 2019. He has spent his last two seasons as the defensive backs coach at Georgia. But the administration may have made a shrewd hire for two reasons. First, Brown is well-respected as a great recruiter which is something this program desperately needs. Second, Brown has worked closely with three very successful head coaches in his previous stops at Temple with Matt Rhule, at Rutgers with Greg Schiano, and at Georgia with Kirby Smart. Brown has immediately raised the bar when it comes to recruiting — and he has also significantly improved the talent base of the roster through the transfer portal. He brought in nine transfers on both sides of the ball — and his biggest catch was snagging former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord. The senior led the Buckeyes to an 11-1 record last season while completing 66% of his passes for 3170 yards with 24 touchdown passes and six interceptions. McCord’s biggest flaw last year was not winning the Michigan game against what was the best defense in the country. Buckeye nation needed a scapegoat. Perhaps Ohio State wanted a more mobile quarterback with Chip Kelly coming over to be their offensive coordinator — but McCord is a gunslinger. The offense has been held back by their offensive line the last few seasons — and Brown addressed that area by bringing in four transfers to compete with four returning starters. The defense returns six of the 13 players who logged in at least 300 snaps along with the nine transfers. He also hired Elijah Robinson as his defensive coordinator who oversaw several good defenses at Texas A&M and was the Aggies interim head coach after Jimbo Fisher was let go last season.
TROY: After posting a 23-5 record in his two seasons with the Trojans, previous head coach Jon Sumrall left for the Tulane job and took his defensive coordinator and many of his best players with him. Troy won two consecutive Sun Belt Conference Championship Games — but two dozen players entered the transfer portal to go elsewhere. And that does not even take into players like quarterback Gunnar Watson who passed for 3569 who graduated or running back Kimani Vidal who rushed for 1661 yards before entering the NFL draft. In comes Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parkeras the new head coach in a massive rebuild since only three starters return from a group that ranks 129th in the nation in returning production. The one returning starter at wide receiver was Chris Lewis who caught 10 touchdowns from 735 receiving yards but he will miss the season after being diagnosed with cancer. Parker was aggressive in the transfer portal to shore up the roster — but Troy is playing catch-up this season after all the losses and defections after two fantastic seasons.
UTAH: The Utes were ravaged by injuries last season — especially on the offensive side of the football. They only generated 348.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 23.2 Points-Per-Game which ranked 92nd and 98th in the FBS — and both those marks were the worst for the program since 2011. Tight end Brant Keith and running back Micah Bernard return — but the key is getting back quarterback Cameron Rising. In his last two seasons before tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago, he completed 64% of his passes for 5527 passing yards with 46 touchdown passes and just 13 interceptions. He ran for another 465 yards with six touchdowns in the 2022-23 season — and he has only been sacked 15 times in his last two seasons. He is a gamer who gives this offense some sorely needed swagger. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has been active in the transfer adding skill position talent on the offensive side of the ball. His defenses are consistently very good as he enters his 20th season running this program. Nine starters and 12 of the 17 players who played at least 300 snaps are back from a group that ranked 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to 307.2 total YPG. Utah did lose defensive end Jonah Elliss and safeties Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki to the NFL — and they are replacing four of their top five in the defensive backfield from last season. But the Utes are an immediate contender to win the Big 12 in their first season moving on from the Pac-12 — especially if Rising returns to his previous form.
UTEP: After the Miners lost 11 of their last 15 games, Dana Dimel was let go after six seasons as the head coach. In comes the 34-year-old high-energy Scotty Walden after four winning seasons as the head coach at Austin Peay. He pledges to rely less on junior college transfers to instead emphasize recruiting high school players in Texas. With only nine starters back from the UTEP team that finished 3-9 last year, Walden brought in 47 new players onto the team. He leaned heavily on his players at Austin Peay with 12 of those players transferring over including ten offensive players and five starters from last season’s Governors’ offense that generated 426.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 34.1 Points-Per-Game. While it is easy to be skeptical about how successful an offense reliant on FCS talent continuing to perform at a high level against FBS competition, this was the model that Greg Kinne effectively deployed last season at Texas State with many of his players from Incarnate Word. But the offensive line lost their top six players and the defense replaces nine of the 16 players who played at least 200 snaps last season.
Best of luck for us -- Frank.
