by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Sep 26, 2024For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARMY WEST POINT: My biggest offseason question for this team last year regarded how successful the Black Knights' transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation would be. Head coach Jeff Monken decided to abandon the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the NCAA implemented new rules restricting cut-blocking rules that were often deployed with the schemes. It took Monken on the eight games to conclude that this decision was ill-advised. He promoted quarterbacks coach and run-game coordinator Cody Worley to offensive coordinator at that point with the directive to get the quarterback back under center and run the ball more from their traditional flexbone option attack that his players were more familiar with. After averaging 16.6 pass attempts per game in their first eight contests, they dropped to 7.5 pass attempts per game in their final four games. Doing a better job of controlling the time of possession, the Army defense forced 11 turnovers in those final four games. The Black Knights won their final four games to push their record up to 6-6. Army has 11 starters returning for now their first season in the American Athletic Conference. Worley remains the offensive coordinator with the offense likely to continue to operate under center with their unique offense (although conference rivals have been facing Navy’s similar scheme for years). The defense only has three starters back with 10 of the 13 players who played at least 300 snaps no longer on the team. But fifth-year defensive coordinator Nate Woody consistently develops an overachieving defense — and this group is strong up the middle.
BYU: After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12.
DUKE: The Blue Devils were mostly dismissed as an afterthought in the offseason last year since only two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record and they benefited from a +16 net turnover margin. But I suspected that analysis was perhaps too simple and shortsighted for a rising star in the head coaching ranks, Mike Elko, and a potential future NFL quarterback, Riley Leonard. A year later, Elko is now the head coach at Texas A&M and Leonard is the starting quarterback for Notre Dame after Duke completed an 8-5 season with a 17-10 win against Troy in the Birmingham Bowl. The program stuck with a defensive-minded head coach by luring Manny Diaz away from Penn State where he has been their defensive coordinator the last two seasons to be their next head coach. Diaz had previously been the head coach at Miami (FL). The defense was very good under Elko last season — five starters return from the group that ranked 28th in the FBS in Yards-Per-Play allowed and tied for 16th by holding their opponents to 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The offense returns five starters with former five-star recruit Maalik Murphy leading the unit after getting two starts at quarterback late in the season. Duke did get outgained by -81 YPG against ACC opponents. Will Diaz be able to get this program to overachieve relative to expectations as they often did under former head coach David Cutcliffe and in the last two years under Elko?
KANSAS: Lance Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG.
MEMPHIS: The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis is a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era.
NAVY: The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program with their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again.
TEXAS STATE: Those optimistic that 34-year-old Incarnate Word head coach G.J. Kinne could turn around this program were immediately rewarded with the Bobcats’ first bowl game in school history along with their first winning record since 2014. Texas State finished with an 8-5 record in a season that culminated with a 45-21 victory against Rice in the First Responder Bowl. Kinne hit the transfer portal hard last year by bringing in more than 40 players — and he was very active once again in the transfer window. Nineteen players transferred to other programs including quarterback T.J. Finley who left for Western Kentucky. But Kinne may be winning the transfer portal game overall by bringing in at least 18 new players including several impactful players on both sides of the ball. Running backs Deon Hankins and Torrance Burgess, Jr. come in from UTEP to join All-American Ismail Mahdi who rushed for 1331 yards last season. Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud will be the new quarterback after passing for 3657 yards with 35 touchdown passes while leading James Madison to an 11-2 record. Kinne is an attractive head coach to play for after his up-tempo innovative offense ranks 15th in the nation by generating 457.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Nine starters return on that side of the ball -- and another nine starters return on defense that still needs work after ranking 112th by allowing 32.8 Points-Per-Game. Kinne brought in several players on that side of the ball to improve the talent level of that group. The Bobcats finished 4-4 in conference play — but they outgained their Sun Belt opponents by +50 YPG.
UNLV: My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. They then lost to Kansas by a 49-36 score in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (their first bowl game since 2013) to finish the season with a 9-5 record. Odom is a professional football coach who had a successful four-year run as the head coach at Missouri before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. The Rebels have returning talent. Wide receiver Ricky White III is an All-American candidate. Linebacker Jackson Woodard and defensive end Jalen Dixon made the All-Mountain West Conference defensive team last year. And offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. Odom added size and athleticism to the defensive backs room by bringing in seven transfers to compete with three returning starters. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Marion oversaw an offense that scored 34.4 PPG which ranked 22nd in the FBS. With depth at the skill positions and an experienced offensive line, UNLV should flirt with that scoring number again. A second year under Odom and defensive coordinator Mike Scherer could see a significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball. But let’s also remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG.
Best of luck -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARMY WEST POINT: My biggest offseason question for this team last year regarded how successful the Black Knights' transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation would be. Head coach Jeff Monken decided to abandon the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the NCAA implemented new rules restricting cut-blocking rules that were often deployed with the schemes. It took Monken on the eight games to conclude that this decision was ill-advised. He promoted quarterbacks coach and run-game coordinator Cody Worley to offensive coordinator at that point with the directive to get the quarterback back under center and run the ball more from their traditional flexbone option attack that his players were more familiar with. After averaging 16.6 pass attempts per game in their first eight contests, they dropped to 7.5 pass attempts per game in their final four games. Doing a better job of controlling the time of possession, the Army defense forced 11 turnovers in those final four games. The Black Knights won their final four games to push their record up to 6-6. Army has 11 starters returning for now their first season in the American Athletic Conference. Worley remains the offensive coordinator with the offense likely to continue to operate under center with their unique offense (although conference rivals have been facing Navy’s similar scheme for years). The defense only has three starters back with 10 of the 13 players who played at least 300 snaps no longer on the team. But fifth-year defensive coordinator Nate Woody consistently develops an overachieving defense — and this group is strong up the middle.
BYU: After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12.
DUKE: The Blue Devils were mostly dismissed as an afterthought in the offseason last year since only two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record and they benefited from a +16 net turnover margin. But I suspected that analysis was perhaps too simple and shortsighted for a rising star in the head coaching ranks, Mike Elko, and a potential future NFL quarterback, Riley Leonard. A year later, Elko is now the head coach at Texas A&M and Leonard is the starting quarterback for Notre Dame after Duke completed an 8-5 season with a 17-10 win against Troy in the Birmingham Bowl. The program stuck with a defensive-minded head coach by luring Manny Diaz away from Penn State where he has been their defensive coordinator the last two seasons to be their next head coach. Diaz had previously been the head coach at Miami (FL). The defense was very good under Elko last season — five starters return from the group that ranked 28th in the FBS in Yards-Per-Play allowed and tied for 16th by holding their opponents to 19.0 Points-Per-Game. The offense returns five starters with former five-star recruit Maalik Murphy leading the unit after getting two starts at quarterback late in the season. Duke did get outgained by -81 YPG against ACC opponents. Will Diaz be able to get this program to overachieve relative to expectations as they often did under former head coach David Cutcliffe and in the last two years under Elko?
KANSAS: Lance Leipold has miraculously transformed the Jayhawks into a College Football Playoff contender with the expanded field coinciding with his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters return from the group that finished 9-4 after their 49-36 victory against UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. He now has a veteran roster with 30 seniors including up to 15 who will be starters. Three of their four losses were decided by just one scoring possession. But how far this team can go will likely be determined by the health of quarterback Jalon Daniels who only played in three games last season. The dual-threat junior ranked third in the nation in Total QBR in his nine games played two seasons ago which was good enough for him to be named to the second All-Big 12 squad. Last year, he completed 74.7% of his passes for 705 yards with five touchdowns and only one interception before going down with an injury. On the other side of the ball, Kansas gave up -9.0 fewer Points-Per-Game and -91.2 fewer Yards-Per-Game than their previous season with defensive coordinator Brian Borland more comfortable in varying his schemes given his talent base. The front seven remains small with only one player weighing over 300 pounds, but more improvement with this unit will make things easier for an explosive offense that ranked fourth and third in the nation by scoring 41.7 PPG and generating 507.0 YPG.
MEMPHIS: The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis is a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era.
NAVY: The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program with their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again.
TEXAS STATE: Those optimistic that 34-year-old Incarnate Word head coach G.J. Kinne could turn around this program were immediately rewarded with the Bobcats’ first bowl game in school history along with their first winning record since 2014. Texas State finished with an 8-5 record in a season that culminated with a 45-21 victory against Rice in the First Responder Bowl. Kinne hit the transfer portal hard last year by bringing in more than 40 players — and he was very active once again in the transfer window. Nineteen players transferred to other programs including quarterback T.J. Finley who left for Western Kentucky. But Kinne may be winning the transfer portal game overall by bringing in at least 18 new players including several impactful players on both sides of the ball. Running backs Deon Hankins and Torrance Burgess, Jr. come in from UTEP to join All-American Ismail Mahdi who rushed for 1331 yards last season. Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud will be the new quarterback after passing for 3657 yards with 35 touchdown passes while leading James Madison to an 11-2 record. Kinne is an attractive head coach to play for after his up-tempo innovative offense ranks 15th in the nation by generating 457.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Nine starters return on that side of the ball -- and another nine starters return on defense that still needs work after ranking 112th by allowing 32.8 Points-Per-Game. Kinne brought in several players on that side of the ball to improve the talent level of that group. The Bobcats finished 4-4 in conference play — but they outgained their Sun Belt opponents by +50 YPG.
UNLV: My fundamental question regarding the Rebels last season was whether first-year head coach Barry Odom could instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas. The answer was a resounding “Yes!” UNLV won nine of their first 11 games with their two losses being to eventual National Champion Michigan (in Ann Arbor) and at Fresno State. They reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game where they lost at Boise State by a 44-20 score. They then lost to Kansas by a 49-36 score in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (their first bowl game since 2013) to finish the season with a 9-5 record. Odom is a professional football coach who had a successful four-year run as the head coach at Missouri before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas. Eleven starters return — and Odom is doing a nice job of using the transfer portal to poach offensive skill position talent from the FCS level and former blue-chip defensive backs who are looking for second chances after struggling at Power Four schools. The Rebels have returning talent. Wide receiver Ricky White III is an All-American candidate. Linebacker Jackson Woodard and defensive end Jalen Dixon made the All-Mountain West Conference defensive team last year. And offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is a rising star with his “Go-Go” up-tempo run-first offense that is heavy on pre-snap motion and flexible formations. The front seven was solid — UNLV ranked 33rd in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 42nd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. But the Rebels ranked 103rd in the nation by allowing 415.5 total Yards-Per-Game because of their pass defense that ranked 111st by surrendering 253.7 passing YPG. Odom added size and athleticism to the defensive backs room by bringing in seven transfers to compete with three returning starters. The biggest loss in the offseason was sophomore quarterback Jayden Maiava transferring to USC after being named the MWC Freshman of the Year. Odom dipped into the FCS ranks to bring in two transfer quarterbacks with dual-threat skills — and Patriot League Player of the Year Matthew Sluka seized the starting job in the fall. Marion oversaw an offense that scored 34.4 PPG which ranked 22nd in the FBS. With depth at the skill positions and an experienced offensive line, UNLV should flirt with that scoring number again. A second year under Odom and defensive coordinator Mike Scherer could see a significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball. But let’s also remember that the Rebels lost their last three games of the season and only beat two of the seven teams who played in bowl games last year. They were 6-2 in conference play — but they only outgained MWC opponents by just 31 YPG.
Best of luck -- Frank.
