by Hollywood Sports
Saturday, Aug 31, 2024For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARIZONA STATE: The Sun Devils suffered through their second-straight 3-9 campaign, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. The former Oregon offensive coordinator also saw his team pull off upsets against Washington State and UCLA. The 34-year-old is working hard on the recruiting trail while being very active in the transfer portal to improve the depth of the roster. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. The defense was reported to have played much better in spring practice. But both sides of the ball have a long way to go still — and cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing with so many new players. The Sun Devils should be much better — but that does not necessarily mean they will win (or cover the point spread) in more games this season.
BOSTON COLLEGE: Former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien returns to the college ranks as a head coach where he previously was the head coach at Penn State for two seasons after the Joe Paterno controversy. He has also served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban and most recently was the offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick for the New England Patriots last season. But after agreeing to take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State, he then took this job at Boston College on February 9th to give him a late start on this new challenge. What does it say that previous head coach Jeff Hafley concluded that the defensive coordinator job for the Green Bay Packers was a better gig? Are the pressures of coaching in college with the transfer portal and NIL too demanding? Or did Hafley see the writing on the wall given the roster next season after years of him living-and-dying using the transfer portal? The Eagles return 17 starters from the team that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 victory against SMU in the Fenway Bowl. They had a 5-2 record in games decided by seven points or less which covered up for them getting outgained by -3.9 Yards-Per-Game. It was the first time in five seasons that they won more than six games. The defense has continued to slide as they ranked 83rd in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game and they ranked 70th in the country by surrendering 385.1 YPG. Even worse, the Eagles ranked 117th in the nation by giving up 6.1 Yards-Per-Play. The last time Boston College ranked in the top 40 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings was in 2017. O’Brien brought in three transfers to bolster the talent and depth in the defensive backfield, but the front seven may be the bigger concern. The Eagles ranked 118th in the nation by giving up 181.4 rushing YPG and their mere 13 sacks ranked last in the country in Sacks Per Game.
LSU: The Tigers are destined to take a step or two back on the offensive side of the ball after leading the nation by scoring 45.5 Points-Per-Game and generating 543.5 Yards-Per-Game. That’s what happens when you lose quarterback Jayden Daniels along with wide receivers Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas who were all dragged in the first round. The offense should still be very good with junior Garrett Nussmeier taking over under center behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. LSU remains loaded at the skill positions — but Nussmeier is a classic pocket passer who lacks the mobility X-factor that Daniels enjoyed. But the Tigers have to improve their defense after ranking 105th in the nation by surrendering 416.6 YPG. LSU gave up at least 30 points eight times — and they have up 45.3 PPG against ranked opponents. Six starters are back on defense and head coach Brian Kelly once again hit the transfer portal to bring four players. The biggest change with new defensive coordinator Blake Baker who did a nice job the last two seasons running the Missouri defense. Baker’s defenses are aggressive — but he first needs to address the chronic tackling issues from last season. Linebacker Harold Perkins is one of the best defensive players in the nation. However, this program is not churning out elite cornerbacks or defensive linemen like they used to do.
MICHIGAN STATE: Previous head coach Mel Tucker lived by the transfer portal — highlighted by finding a gem in Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker who blossomed into a star while leading the Spartans to a magical 11-2 season in 2021. Tucker was able to squeeze the MSU administration into inking him to a 10-year $95 million deal — but perhaps those bureaucrats should have given more weight to the fact that Sparty got outgained in yardage by -60 Yards-Per-Game in Big Ten play that year while benefitting from a +5 net close win margin. Tucker soon became a loser in the transfer window with more players like wide receiver Keon Coleman (drafted 33rd by Buffalo last April) leaving the program than the talent that was coming. The culture continued to wane before it rock bottom last September when Tucker was dismissed amidst a sexual harassment lawsuit (and three losing seasons in four years). The Spartans finished the year 4-8 while getting outgained by -133 YPG. It is important to consider that outlier 2021 campaign since that is the team’s only winning season in the last five years — and the only time they won more than seven games since 2017. The slide this program has taken from its peak seasons under head coach Mark Dantonio is on defense. Sparty was a top-ten statistical defense in 2017 and 2018 while ranking tied for 18th in YPG Allowed in 2019 in Dantonio’s last season. Yet despite Tucker being a Nick Sagan protege who had defensive coordinating experience in the NFL and at Georgia, the defense collapsed in his tenure at East Lansing. Michigan State ranked 54th in total defense in his first season with the team before falling to 111th and 100th in his final two full seasons with the team. All of this is to say that the rebuilding project for the new head coach, Jonathan Smith, is enormous. Twelve players entered the transfer portal last April, leaving an already depleted roster from years of high school recruiting neglect by Tucker even worse off. Only seven of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps returned. Smith brought in 15 transfers to bolster that side of the ball. The back seven should be capable enough, but the defensive line is a big question mark. Another significant problem is the offensive line with only two returning starters being joined by just three transfers. The unit has a mere 31 starts at the FBS level to start the season. Smith did bring former four-star dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles with him from Oregon State — but he takes over an offense that ranked 128th and 125th in the nation by scoring 15.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 289.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Smith’s reputation at Oregon State was that he could do more with less — and the Beavers had an 18-8 record in the last two seasons. But the cupboard is close to bare when it comes to high-end talent in now what is a super league Big Ten. Rebuilding a healthy culture takes time — and the “more with less” dogma grew stale under Dantonio less than a decade ago with the Spartans falling further and further behind their conference rivals when it came to elite talent particularly at quarterback and the skill positions on offense.
NOTRE DAME: Excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction.
STANFORD: Last year was destined to be a trying season for first-year head coach Troy Taylor taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. A 3-9 campaign ensued with Stanford getting outgained by -128 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play. But there were bright spots. The Cardinal pulled off upsets against Colorado and Washington State. Dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels showed flashes with 11 touchdown passes. Sophomore wide receiver Elic Ayomanorcaught 62 balls for 1013 receiving yards in Taylor’s fast-paced stretch Air Raid offense. With four starters back, Stanford may have the most improved offensive line in the country. But the defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG. Fifteen of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return with the hope that a second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April will lead to a significant growth spurt. Taylor has improved recruiting — they ranked 31st and 27th respectively by 247 Sports and Rivals for their 2024 class. He is not attempting to take shortcuts in the transfer portal (which simply may not be an option for a school like Stanford) so things remain a long-term project. The Cardinal will be better — the question is how many steps can they Take in Year Two under Taylor.
TCU: The Regression Gods were expected to make their presence felt on this program that won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession en route to their appearance in the National Championship Game (before Georgia threw cold water on the entire project in their 65-7 victory). Head coach Sonny Dykes gambled on the transfer portal again after enjoying the surprising success in 2022-23 — but this time TCU finished just 5-7 while losing all four games decided by one score. The Horned Frogs return 16 starters from last year — and Dykes once again was aggressive in the transfer portal by bringing in 20 new players in the window, the most ever yet in his three years. This is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. No one expected TCU to reach the College Football Playoff two years ago. But culture cannot be taken for granted — and the turnstile mentality can quickly turn things sour in that environment. What has been consistent under Dykes going back to his three seasons at SMU is an underwhelming defense. The Horned Frogs ranked 94th in the FBS in the championship game run by allowing 408.2 Yards-Per-Game (they outlasted Michigan 51-45 in the Playoff Semifinals benefiting from two pick-sixes). Last year, allowed 408.3 YPG which dropped them to 100th in the nation (despite their remarkable consistency of ineptitude). Dykes hired former Boise State head coach and Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos to run the defense this year. Nine starters return along with 12 new transfer players with Avalos moving from the Gary Patterson staple 3-3-5 defense for this program the last 25 or so years to a 4-2-5 scheme. But this unit is no longer producing NFL players on that side of the ball as they were when Patterson ran the program. The wide receiver room is loaded — but the offensive line is rebuilt and the quarterback situation remained unsettled after fall practice. After ranking ninth by scoring 38.8 Points-Per-Game two years ago, they fell to 31.3 PPG last year — and that touchdown difference was the difference between winning six of seven close games and losing all four of their close games given that defense. Stands to reason that if TCU cannot increase their scoring average from last year, this will remain basically a .500 team, which is what they may have been in their title game run, except for several blessings from the (fickle) Football Gods.
TEXAS A&M: Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. He inherits a roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group.
USC: The Trojans move on from quarterback Caleb Williams — but head coach Lincoln Riley is the Quarterback Whisperer whose offenses have all ranked no worse than seventh in the nation going back to his tenure at Oklahoma. We don’t know yet if Miller Moss, who won the quarterback job in fall camp, will develop into Riley’s fourth Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. The redshirt junior demonstrated he is capable by passing for 372 yards and six touchdown passes against Louisville in the Holiday Bowl last season. As always for a Riley-coached team, the issue will be the USC defense. The Trojans allowed another five opponents to score at least 41 points against them last season — and that makes it 23 times in his seven years as a head coach despite being at two blue-blood programs at USC and Oklahoma. As usual, Riley was aggressive in the transfer portal adding new talent — the new defensive players have 111 career starts under their belts. But the hope of the transfer portal has always been the preseason rationalization regarding why the Trojans' defense will improve since Riley arrived. Perhaps the dismissal of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and the overhaul of the coaching staff on that side of the ball will finally make the difference. Riley made a great hire by poaching D’Anton Lynn from UCLA. As the Bruins' defensive coordinator last year, he inherited a defense that allowed 29 Points-Per-Game and 403 Yards-Per-Game (ranking 87th in the nation). His defense improved on those numbers by giving up only 18 PPG and 302 YPG (ranking 11th in the nation). Ultimately, for USC to contend in the new Big Ten against elite programs like Ohio State and Michigan, they have to get better on both lines of scrimmage. The defensive line is bigger — but is their future NFL talent like there always is for the Buckeyes and Wolverines? Offensive line play has been suspect since Riley moved to USC as well — and it remains unclear if that unit has improved after making life very difficult for Williams last year.
WYOMING: It is the beginning of a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired in the offseason to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. The team may have peaked last season after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Wyoming has finished .500 or better in seven of the last eight years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. They also have reached a bowl game in six of their last seven (non-pandemic shortened) seasons. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel takes over as the head coach and is not likely to change the core identity of this team. But the offense is not likely to be as conservative as in the past under former Michigan State offensive coordinator Jay Johnson. He will likely bring more spread and tempo concepts to an offense that will still want to impose their will in the ground game. The Cowboys’ running back room has depth and the offensive line returns four starters. Wyoming fans hope that Evan Svoboda wearing #17 will evoke memories of Josh Allen. The junior quarterback has a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He started the game at Texas — and it was 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns pulled away — and orchestrated the two winning drives in their bowl game. The defense returns 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. The Cowboys ranked 36th in the nation by holding their opponents to 22.6 Points-Per-Game.
Best of luck -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
ARIZONA STATE: The Sun Devils suffered through their second-straight 3-9 campaign, but there are finally reasons to optimism again in Tempe for this program. The NCAA investigations and sanctions from the Herm Edwards era are finished and resolved. And while the team got outgained by -99 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play, the players consistently played hard for rookie head coach Kenny Dillingham. The former Oregon offensive coordinator also saw his team pull off upsets against Washington State and UCLA. The 34-year-old is working hard on the recruiting trail while being very active in the transfer portal to improve the depth of the roster. After bringing in 31 transfers last year, Dillingham brought in another 29 new players in the transfer portal in the offseason to add to the ten returning starters. Injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line played a role in Arizona State only scoring 17.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 121st in the nation. The defense was reported to have played much better in spring practice. But both sides of the ball have a long way to go still — and cohesion and chemistry are always a concern when dealing with so many new players. The Sun Devils should be much better — but that does not necessarily mean they will win (or cover the point spread) in more games this season.
BOSTON COLLEGE: Former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien returns to the college ranks as a head coach where he previously was the head coach at Penn State for two seasons after the Joe Paterno controversy. He has also served as the offensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban and most recently was the offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick for the New England Patriots last season. But after agreeing to take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State, he then took this job at Boston College on February 9th to give him a late start on this new challenge. What does it say that previous head coach Jeff Hafley concluded that the defensive coordinator job for the Green Bay Packers was a better gig? Are the pressures of coaching in college with the transfer portal and NIL too demanding? Or did Hafley see the writing on the wall given the roster next season after years of him living-and-dying using the transfer portal? The Eagles return 17 starters from the team that finished 7-6 after their 23-14 victory against SMU in the Fenway Bowl. They had a 5-2 record in games decided by seven points or less which covered up for them getting outgained by -3.9 Yards-Per-Game. It was the first time in five seasons that they won more than six games. The defense has continued to slide as they ranked 83rd in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game and they ranked 70th in the country by surrendering 385.1 YPG. Even worse, the Eagles ranked 117th in the nation by giving up 6.1 Yards-Per-Play. The last time Boston College ranked in the top 40 in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive rankings was in 2017. O’Brien brought in three transfers to bolster the talent and depth in the defensive backfield, but the front seven may be the bigger concern. The Eagles ranked 118th in the nation by giving up 181.4 rushing YPG and their mere 13 sacks ranked last in the country in Sacks Per Game.
LSU: The Tigers are destined to take a step or two back on the offensive side of the ball after leading the nation by scoring 45.5 Points-Per-Game and generating 543.5 Yards-Per-Game. That’s what happens when you lose quarterback Jayden Daniels along with wide receivers Malik Nabors and Brian Thomas who were all dragged in the first round. The offense should still be very good with junior Garrett Nussmeier taking over under center behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. LSU remains loaded at the skill positions — but Nussmeier is a classic pocket passer who lacks the mobility X-factor that Daniels enjoyed. But the Tigers have to improve their defense after ranking 105th in the nation by surrendering 416.6 YPG. LSU gave up at least 30 points eight times — and they have up 45.3 PPG against ranked opponents. Six starters are back on defense and head coach Brian Kelly once again hit the transfer portal to bring four players. The biggest change with new defensive coordinator Blake Baker who did a nice job the last two seasons running the Missouri defense. Baker’s defenses are aggressive — but he first needs to address the chronic tackling issues from last season. Linebacker Harold Perkins is one of the best defensive players in the nation. However, this program is not churning out elite cornerbacks or defensive linemen like they used to do.
MICHIGAN STATE: Previous head coach Mel Tucker lived by the transfer portal — highlighted by finding a gem in Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker who blossomed into a star while leading the Spartans to a magical 11-2 season in 2021. Tucker was able to squeeze the MSU administration into inking him to a 10-year $95 million deal — but perhaps those bureaucrats should have given more weight to the fact that Sparty got outgained in yardage by -60 Yards-Per-Game in Big Ten play that year while benefitting from a +5 net close win margin. Tucker soon became a loser in the transfer window with more players like wide receiver Keon Coleman (drafted 33rd by Buffalo last April) leaving the program than the talent that was coming. The culture continued to wane before it rock bottom last September when Tucker was dismissed amidst a sexual harassment lawsuit (and three losing seasons in four years). The Spartans finished the year 4-8 while getting outgained by -133 YPG. It is important to consider that outlier 2021 campaign since that is the team’s only winning season in the last five years — and the only time they won more than seven games since 2017. The slide this program has taken from its peak seasons under head coach Mark Dantonio is on defense. Sparty was a top-ten statistical defense in 2017 and 2018 while ranking tied for 18th in YPG Allowed in 2019 in Dantonio’s last season. Yet despite Tucker being a Nick Sagan protege who had defensive coordinating experience in the NFL and at Georgia, the defense collapsed in his tenure at East Lansing. Michigan State ranked 54th in total defense in his first season with the team before falling to 111th and 100th in his final two full seasons with the team. All of this is to say that the rebuilding project for the new head coach, Jonathan Smith, is enormous. Twelve players entered the transfer portal last April, leaving an already depleted roster from years of high school recruiting neglect by Tucker even worse off. Only seven of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps returned. Smith brought in 15 transfers to bolster that side of the ball. The back seven should be capable enough, but the defensive line is a big question mark. Another significant problem is the offensive line with only two returning starters being joined by just three transfers. The unit has a mere 31 starts at the FBS level to start the season. Smith did bring former four-star dual-threat quarterback Aidan Chiles with him from Oregon State — but he takes over an offense that ranked 128th and 125th in the nation by scoring 15.9 Points-Per-Game and generating 289.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Smith’s reputation at Oregon State was that he could do more with less — and the Beavers had an 18-8 record in the last two seasons. But the cupboard is close to bare when it comes to high-end talent in now what is a super league Big Ten. Rebuilding a healthy culture takes time — and the “more with less” dogma grew stale under Dantonio less than a decade ago with the Spartans falling further and further behind their conference rivals when it came to elite talent particularly at quarterback and the skill positions on offense.
NOTRE DAME: Excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction.
STANFORD: Last year was destined to be a trying season for first-year head coach Troy Taylor taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. A 3-9 campaign ensued with Stanford getting outgained by -128 Yards-Per-Game in Pac-12 play. But there were bright spots. The Cardinal pulled off upsets against Colorado and Washington State. Dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels showed flashes with 11 touchdown passes. Sophomore wide receiver Elic Ayomanorcaught 62 balls for 1013 receiving yards in Taylor’s fast-paced stretch Air Raid offense. With four starters back, Stanford may have the most improved offensive line in the country. But the defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG. Fifteen of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps return with the hope that a second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April will lead to a significant growth spurt. Taylor has improved recruiting — they ranked 31st and 27th respectively by 247 Sports and Rivals for their 2024 class. He is not attempting to take shortcuts in the transfer portal (which simply may not be an option for a school like Stanford) so things remain a long-term project. The Cardinal will be better — the question is how many steps can they Take in Year Two under Taylor.
TCU: The Regression Gods were expected to make their presence felt on this program that won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession en route to their appearance in the National Championship Game (before Georgia threw cold water on the entire project in their 65-7 victory). Head coach Sonny Dykes gambled on the transfer portal again after enjoying the surprising success in 2022-23 — but this time TCU finished just 5-7 while losing all four games decided by one score. The Horned Frogs return 16 starters from last year — and Dykes once again was aggressive in the transfer portal by bringing in 20 new players in the window, the most ever yet in his three years. This is a high-risk, high-reward strategy. No one expected TCU to reach the College Football Playoff two years ago. But culture cannot be taken for granted — and the turnstile mentality can quickly turn things sour in that environment. What has been consistent under Dykes going back to his three seasons at SMU is an underwhelming defense. The Horned Frogs ranked 94th in the FBS in the championship game run by allowing 408.2 Yards-Per-Game (they outlasted Michigan 51-45 in the Playoff Semifinals benefiting from two pick-sixes). Last year, allowed 408.3 YPG which dropped them to 100th in the nation (despite their remarkable consistency of ineptitude). Dykes hired former Boise State head coach and Oregon defensive coordinator Andy Avalos to run the defense this year. Nine starters return along with 12 new transfer players with Avalos moving from the Gary Patterson staple 3-3-5 defense for this program the last 25 or so years to a 4-2-5 scheme. But this unit is no longer producing NFL players on that side of the ball as they were when Patterson ran the program. The wide receiver room is loaded — but the offensive line is rebuilt and the quarterback situation remained unsettled after fall practice. After ranking ninth by scoring 38.8 Points-Per-Game two years ago, they fell to 31.3 PPG last year — and that touchdown difference was the difference between winning six of seven close games and losing all four of their close games given that defense. Stands to reason that if TCU cannot increase their scoring average from last year, this will remain basically a .500 team, which is what they may have been in their title game run, except for several blessings from the (fickle) Football Gods.
TEXAS A&M: Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. He inherits a roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group.
USC: The Trojans move on from quarterback Caleb Williams — but head coach Lincoln Riley is the Quarterback Whisperer whose offenses have all ranked no worse than seventh in the nation going back to his tenure at Oklahoma. We don’t know yet if Miller Moss, who won the quarterback job in fall camp, will develop into Riley’s fourth Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. The redshirt junior demonstrated he is capable by passing for 372 yards and six touchdown passes against Louisville in the Holiday Bowl last season. As always for a Riley-coached team, the issue will be the USC defense. The Trojans allowed another five opponents to score at least 41 points against them last season — and that makes it 23 times in his seven years as a head coach despite being at two blue-blood programs at USC and Oklahoma. As usual, Riley was aggressive in the transfer portal adding new talent — the new defensive players have 111 career starts under their belts. But the hope of the transfer portal has always been the preseason rationalization regarding why the Trojans' defense will improve since Riley arrived. Perhaps the dismissal of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch and the overhaul of the coaching staff on that side of the ball will finally make the difference. Riley made a great hire by poaching D’Anton Lynn from UCLA. As the Bruins' defensive coordinator last year, he inherited a defense that allowed 29 Points-Per-Game and 403 Yards-Per-Game (ranking 87th in the nation). His defense improved on those numbers by giving up only 18 PPG and 302 YPG (ranking 11th in the nation). Ultimately, for USC to contend in the new Big Ten against elite programs like Ohio State and Michigan, they have to get better on both lines of scrimmage. The defensive line is bigger — but is their future NFL talent like there always is for the Buckeyes and Wolverines? Offensive line play has been suspect since Riley moved to USC as well — and it remains unclear if that unit has improved after making life very difficult for Williams last year.
WYOMING: It is the beginning of a new era in Laramie after Craig Bohl retired in the offseason to end his ten-year run as the Cowboys’ head coach. He built a very consistent program focused on good defenses and special teams while being complemented by a physical rushing attack. The team may have peaked last season after finishing with a 9-4 record after beating Toledo in the Arizona Bowl by a 16-15 score. Wyoming has finished .500 or better in seven of the last eight years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. They also have reached a bowl game in six of their last seven (non-pandemic shortened) seasons. Defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel takes over as the head coach and is not likely to change the core identity of this team. But the offense is not likely to be as conservative as in the past under former Michigan State offensive coordinator Jay Johnson. He will likely bring more spread and tempo concepts to an offense that will still want to impose their will in the ground game. The Cowboys’ running back room has depth and the offensive line returns four starters. Wyoming fans hope that Evan Svoboda wearing #17 will evoke memories of Josh Allen. The junior quarterback has a similar frame at 6’5, 245 lbs. He started the game at Texas — and it was 10-10 in the fourth quarter before the Longhorns pulled away — and orchestrated the two winning drives in their bowl game. The defense returns 19 of the 22 in the two-deep including nine of the 14 players who played in at least 200 snaps. The Cowboys ranked 36th in the nation by holding their opponents to 22.6 Points-Per-Game.
Best of luck -- Frank.
