by Hollywood Sports
Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
COASTAL CAROLINA: With quarterback Grayson McCall transferring to North Carolina State after leading the Chanticleer offense for the last four seasons, this is a new era for this program in the second year under head coach Tim Beck. Coastal Carolina finished 8-5 last season with McCall missing six games. The conventional wisdom is that this team is poised to take a step back after catching lightning in a bottle with McCall and previous head coach Jamey Chadwell who moved on to Liberty last year. Maybe. Beck, the previous offensive coordinator at North Carolina State, has 66 new players on campus. Welcome to the transfer portal era. Hasty conclusions one way or another will likely be hasty.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC: The Owls were a disappointment last year under first-year head coach Tom Herman. After two straight 5-7 seasons that got Willie Targatt fired in his third year with the program, FAU was only 4-8 last year after dropping their final four games. Moving up to the American Athletic Conference from Conference USA proved difficult for this program which has lost 29 games in a row against Power Five competition. The offense took a step back under Herman as well with the Owls only scoring 23.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 87th in the nation, after scoring 29.8 PPG the year prior. A Week Three injury to starting quarterback Casey Thompson did not help matters as former Central Michigan quarterback Daniel Richardson was not ready to run the offense. Herman is trying to be patient and improve the team’s in-state recruiting — but he was more aggressive with the transfer portal in the offseason in an attempt to improve the talent level of the roster. Six transfers add depth to the defensive line. Six more transfers bolster a wide receiver room that does not return a starter — and their best offensive player, LaJohntay Wester, left for Colorado. The quarterback room lost three players in the offseason — but Herman hopes he found an answer in dual-threat Cam Fancher who was a two-year starter at Marshall.
FLORIDA STATE: My biggest question with this team in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 more in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. On the other hand, there are enough reasons to suspect Norvell is ahead of the curve as to where college football has been going. FLORIDA STATE: My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. in hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 more in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. But the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to the elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. On the other hand, there are enough reasons to suspect Norvell is ahead of the curve as to where college football has been going.
GEORGIA TECH: Any concern that the Yellow Jackets jumped the gun on giving Brent Kay the permanent head coaching job after a small sample size in 2022 when he went 4-4 down the stretch taking over for the fired Geoff Collins was put to rest last season. Georgia Tech upset Wake Forest, Miami (FL), and Virginia all on the road before beating Central Florida by a 30-17 score in the Gasparilla Bowl to secure a 7-6 record (and 5-3 in the ACC). For the first time in five seasons, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24.0 Points-Per-Game with sophomore quarterback Haynes King leading the way to a 31.1 PPG scoring average. The former four-star recruit from Texas A&M is poised for a breakout campaign in his junior season under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke. The dual-threat QB accounted for 35 total touchdowns — and he has seven starters back to join him. It is the other side of the ball that remains the work in progress. Georgia Tech ranks 120th in the nation by allowing 437.1 Yards-Per-Game. Five starters return — and Kay brought in nine transfers and hired Tyler Santucci as the new defensive coordinator after he oversaw a good Duke defense last year. The group needs more depth and playmakers — but improving on their run defense that ranked 128th in the FBS by allowing 221.3 YPG with opposing rushers generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Kay was able to retain several important players from the temptations of the transfer portal. He is building a culture focused on toughness and doing an admirable job bringing in talent despite the high academic standards in the Admissions Office. But a brutal schedule awaits with every opponent on the roster making the postseason last year.
JACKSONVILLE STATE: Last year, I wondered if the Gamecocks could become the next debutante from the FCS to find immediate success at the FBS level. Not only did head coach Rich Rodriguez oversee a 9-4 record, they became the first former FCS program to win a bowl game in their first season (0-4 previously) when they survived giving up three defensive touchdowns in a 34-31 victory against UL-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl. No one will question Rodriguez’s offensive chops as one of the originators of zone reads and spread offenses. The surprising dynamic of last year’s team was just how good the defense is still despite the jump-up in competition to the FBS level and Conference USA. Jacksonville State held their opponents to 22.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Zac Alley did such a good job that he impressed Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables to poach him as the Sooners’ next defensive coordinator. Rodriguez tapped long-time defensive analyst at Tulsa, Luke Olson, to run the defense this season. Rodriguez must replace a starting quarterback, his top two running backs, and his two top wide receivers from last year — but that is not as large a hurdle as it appears. He always rotates his players on both sides of the ball so experienced players return. He played the hot hand at quarterback last season — and former Nebraska transfer Logan Smothers is back after accounting for 13 touchdowns last year. Rodriguez also brought in several transfers including former UConn starter Zion Turner. Don’t underestimate Rodriguez’s ability to find dual-threat QBs and speedy players at the skill positions that fit his unique offense. He continues to find these players at the lower division levels — but now he has added several FBS and Power Five conference talent to fill these roles. Last year’s team was still dominated by players recruited to play at the FCS level. Now Rodriguez has assembled a roster of players primarily recruited by FBS rivals.
MINNESOTA: There is a very good chance that the Golden Gophers will be better than their record as they draw a brutal schedule in the revamped Big Ten. After two straight 9-4 campaigns, Minnesota took a step back last year with a 6-7 record — although they did beat Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 30-24 score. The Golden Gophers could not pass the ball last season under sophomore quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. They ranked 123rd in the nation by averaging only 143.4 passing Yards-Per-Game. Kaliakmanis left for Rutgers as head coach P.J. Fleck brought in Max Brosmer who led the FCS in passing yards for New Hampshire last season. Brosmer grew into the job during spring practice and was named a team captain by his teammates. Fleck will still operate a run-first attack on offense with talented sophomore running back Darius Taylor who rushed for 808 yards in six games before getting injured. The offensive line is a strength with four starters returning. The defense took a step back last season after ranking eighth in total yards allowed in 2022 — they fell to 54th in the nation last season by giving up 368.4 total YPG. Eight starters return — but Fleck had to find a new defensive coordinator after Joe Rossi left to take the same job at Michigan State. Former James Madison defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman comes in after coaching linebackers at Rutgers last year. The ceiling for this program is not as high as several of their Big Ten opponents because Fleck is simply not able to recruit with those national powers at Minnesota — but the floor is pretty high under Fleck. If Brosmer offers a significant upgrade at quarterback and the defense improves from last year’s “floor,” the Golden Gophers will be a dangerous out.
NEVADA: This program hit rock bottom three years ago when head coach Mike Norvell bolted the program for Colorado State and took many key players with him. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno for the first season under former Oregon defensive coordinator Ken Wilson. After two straight 2-10 seasons, the program moved on from Wilson and brought in another defensive coach in Jeff Choate who had been the co-defensive coordinator at Texas for the last three seasons. On paper, the hire makes sense since Choate has been an assistant coach for Mountain West Conference programs — and he was the former head coach at Montana State before taking them to the FCS Semifinals in 2019. But it’s a Herculean assignment to revive a program that is one of the clear losers in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal. Wilson was not able to clean up the defense that ranked 123rd in the FBS last year by allowing 441.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The offense collapsed the last two years — they scored 18.8 Points-Per-Game in 2022 before falling to 17.3 PPG (T-124th) last year. The Wolf Pack will be the underdog in almost all their games — but they could be dangerous relative to point spread expectations. Losing in the transfer portal and NIL resigns programs to Last Chance Saloon status regarding players from other programs — but Nevada does have many blue-chip transfers come in from Power Five conferences looking to make a name for themselves in Reno. It could be worse, from a talent perspective.
NORTH CAROLINA: Another season under head coach Mack Brown, and another underwhelming record. In his five seasons back with the program, the Tar Heels have not won more than nine games. They have reached only one ACC Championship Game. Despite having the number three pick in the April NFL Draft at quarterback in Drake Maye, North Carolina finished with only an 8-5 record including a 4-4 mark in conference play. Once again, the defense failed to meet expectations of their blue-chip potential as the unit ranked 94th in the nation by giving up 404.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Eight opponents scored at least 30 points against them. Brown relieved Gene Chizik of his duties after the season and tapped Geoff Collins to be his third defensive coordinator in four years. Seven starters return along with nine of the 16 players who were on the field for at least 300 snaps last season. Brown continued to be aggressive in the transfer portal as he brought in senior quarterback Max Johnson from Texas A&M. He will compete with redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell for the starting quarterback job after playing five games last year including their bowl game. Either way, the quarterback position is taking a step back. The wide receiver room is stacked and running back Omarion Hampton is a tackle-breaking machine who ran for 1504 yards last year. But the offensive line replaces five of their top six players on the depth chart.
OKLAHOMA: The Sooners rebounded from their first losing season since 1998 to go 10-3 last year in the second season under head coach Brent Venables. The former defensive coordinator in Norman under Bob Stoops before coordinating the defense at Clemson under Dabo Swinney pulled off his third straight top-ten recruiting class. But his teams have lost seven of their ten games decided by one scoring possession. Now with Oklahoma making their debut in the SEC, I have concerns that the roster that Venables has assembled is not ready for that level of competition week in and week out. Holes on both sides of the line can be covered up in Big 12 play — but that won’t fly in this conference. The interior defensive linemen averaged 291 pounds in the spring game. The offensive line is being completely rebuilt with all five starters gone from last season. Venables has done a complete 180 flip from his criticism of Deion Sanders’ use of the transfer portal — and he brought in five transfers on the offensive line who have 114 career starts. Talent and certainly cohesion remain questions with that group. Venables turns to former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold at quarterback after senior Dillon Gabriel chose to spend his last season in college playing for Oregon. The wide receiver room is loaded — and the Sooners have a talented running back room. But this style of play with four wide receivers on the field most of the time may not be conducive to success in the SEC. The pass-happy attack does no favors for the defense either. Eleven of the top 13 tacklers return — and the linebackers and defensive backs appear to be elite, on paper. But this group ranked only 77th in the nation by surrendering 389.4 Yards-Per-Game last year with that group getting exposed often in the second half of the year. This was the unit Venables was supposed to fix — and he did fire defensive coordinator Ted Roof in the offseason. Defensive backs coach Jay Valai got promoted to co-defensive coordinator along with former aide at Clemson Zac Alley who ran the defense at Jacksonville State last season. With perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, there is a lot of pressure on this program and Venables, in particular.
SMU: The Mustangs were very active in the transfer portal last offseason with head coach Rhett Lashlee poaching several players from Miami (FL) where he had previously been the offensive coordinator. He employed a similar strategy on defense by using Liberty as his minor league program where defensive coordinator Scott Symons had previously run the defense. It worked. SMU won the American Athletic Conference regular season and Conference Championship Game en route to an 11-3 record. Preston Stone developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the country — and the junior returns along with seven other starters on offense. But it was the play of the defense that transformed this program. After ranking 111th in the nation in 2022 by surrendering 431.2 total Yards-Per-Game, the Mustangs improved to 12th in the FBS by giving up only 304.1 YPG. Lashlee has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding the transfer portal — and he was very active once again this offseason. With only two starters returning on the offensive line, he brought in five transfers on the offensive line from Power Five conference programs. He added double-digit transfers on defense including eight linemen from Power Five conference teams. Lashlee certainly understands the challenge in SMU’s move to the ACC. While the Mustangs won all 11 of their games against Group of Five teams, all three of their losses last season were to Power Five conference foes — and they only averaged 14.0 Points-Per-Game in those games and never topped 17 points. They have lost nine of their last ten games against Power Five teams.
TEMPLE: The Matt Rhule era when the Owls won 20 games and an American Athletic Conference title in 2015-16 is now a distant memory. The program floundered under head coach Rod Carey — and they have gone just 10-33 in the last four seasons. Temple is on the shortlist for the biggest losers in the transfer portal/NIL era. Third-year head coach Stan Drayton inherited a nightmare from the aftershocks of the mass exodus at the end of Carey’s tenure. Now Drayton is trapped in the negative feedback loop with any good players developed then leaving the program for greener pastures. The Owls return only 10 starters with many of their best players entering the transfer portal. Quarterback E.J. Warner transferred to Rice, although I’m not sure that loss is as bad as advertised. Temple only scored 21.1 Points-Per-Game last year, ranking 107th in the FBS, under the son of the Hall of Famer’s leadership. Drayton has brought in 43 new players this season. The defense ranked 124th in the nation by surrendering 35.7 PPG. Five starters return — and Drayton added 20 transfer players. The problem is that Temple is on the wrong end of the talent transfer. Seven of those 20 transfers on defense are from junior college programs. And while diamonds in the rough can be found in the juco ranks, relying on these players is not the formula for success at the FBS level. Drayton seems to have improved the culture that sank under Carey. But after getting outgained by -67 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play in 2022, the Owls took a step back last year by getting outgained by -96 YPG.
WESTERN MICHIGAN: The Broncos fired head coach Tim Lester after a 5-7 record in 2022 which was the program’s first losing season since 2013. Lester oversaw a 37-32 record in Kalamazoo, but the administration may have been concerned about a stalling offense that scored 21 or fewer points in nine games. They tapped Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor as their new head coach banking on his resume that included stints in the NFL and Notre Dame as an assistant coach. Yet Western Michigan dropped to 4-8 last year with the offense scoring 17 or fewer points in five of their eight losses. Perhaps the Broncos were destined for an ugly rebuilding season with just ten starters returning last year. But now Taylor is replacing both his coordinators in his second season. Defensive coordinator Lou Esposito left the program after 11 seasons on staff to become the co-defensive coordinator at Memphis before eventually taking the defensive line coach job at Michigan. Offensive coordinator Billy Cosh left to become the head coach at Stony Brook. Did these coaches leave because these were better long-term opportunities? Or were they abandoning ship from a program in decline that lost seven games by 13 or more points and four by 24 or more points? Taylor has more experience this season with 17 returning starters including senior quarterback Hayden Wolff who completed 65.5% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and five interceptions. But after 22 previous starts at Old Dominion before transferring into the program onto a team that completed 49.9% of their passes, why wasn’t he given the keys to the offense before the last five games of the season? Taylor is trying to build a new identity for this team while taking his lumps in the transfer portal. What are the realistic expectations of this program in the world of NIL and the transfer portal?
WISCONSIN: The Badgers come off a disappointing 7-6 season last year under first-year head coach Luke Fickell did not seem to get better results than the previous year’s team that all finished 7-6 which led to Paul Chryst getting fired in early October of that year. The excuses were flying. Injuries impacted the offense. Fickell was disappointed with some of the assistant coaches (that he fired) — so he brought in four new assistant coaches in the offseason. There was a focus in the offseason to get faster, longer, and more athletic on defense which Fickell attempted to address in the transfer portal. But there were deeper issues last year which Fickell will be held to account. Team chemistry hit rock bottom after a mid-November 14-point loss to Northwestern. The hiring of offensive coordinator Phil Longo to install his up-tempo Air Raid system seemed like an odd fit for this program that has enjoyed years of success as a physical team with great offensive lines and tough defenses that thrive in colder weather. The players struggled to pick up the new schemes that did not appear to be a great fit for the talent available. The unit lost their identity (for example, they rarely had the quarterback under center, leading to poor execution in short-yardage situations when being in shotgun was disadvantageous). An offense that ranked 76th in the nation by scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game two years ago took another step back by scoring only 23.5 PPG last year, ranking 91st in the FBS. Perhaps another year of learning the system will help things click this season. And, once again, Fickell used the portal to add talent at quarterback by tapping Tyler Van Dyke from Miami (FL). But like Tanner Mordecai coming in from SMU last year, is Fickell simply finding retreads from other programs? Van Dyke got benched by the Hurricanes near the end of the season after a four-game stretch where he turned the ball over 11 times. To his credit, he did not throw an interception in his final two games of the season while throwing for 617 yards — but questions about his consistency remain. With a brutal schedule that features Alabama in non-conference along with USC, Oregon, and Penn State, things could unravel quickly if chemistry issues remain or the offense does not improve.
Best of luck for us — Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
COASTAL CAROLINA: With quarterback Grayson McCall transferring to North Carolina State after leading the Chanticleer offense for the last four seasons, this is a new era for this program in the second year under head coach Tim Beck. Coastal Carolina finished 8-5 last season with McCall missing six games. The conventional wisdom is that this team is poised to take a step back after catching lightning in a bottle with McCall and previous head coach Jamey Chadwell who moved on to Liberty last year. Maybe. Beck, the previous offensive coordinator at North Carolina State, has 66 new players on campus. Welcome to the transfer portal era. Hasty conclusions one way or another will likely be hasty.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC: The Owls were a disappointment last year under first-year head coach Tom Herman. After two straight 5-7 seasons that got Willie Targatt fired in his third year with the program, FAU was only 4-8 last year after dropping their final four games. Moving up to the American Athletic Conference from Conference USA proved difficult for this program which has lost 29 games in a row against Power Five competition. The offense took a step back under Herman as well with the Owls only scoring 23.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 87th in the nation, after scoring 29.8 PPG the year prior. A Week Three injury to starting quarterback Casey Thompson did not help matters as former Central Michigan quarterback Daniel Richardson was not ready to run the offense. Herman is trying to be patient and improve the team’s in-state recruiting — but he was more aggressive with the transfer portal in the offseason in an attempt to improve the talent level of the roster. Six transfers add depth to the defensive line. Six more transfers bolster a wide receiver room that does not return a starter — and their best offensive player, LaJohntay Wester, left for Colorado. The quarterback room lost three players in the offseason — but Herman hopes he found an answer in dual-threat Cam Fancher who was a two-year starter at Marshall.
FLORIDA STATE: My biggest question with this team in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 more in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. On the other hand, there are enough reasons to suspect Norvell is ahead of the curve as to where college football has been going. FLORIDA STATE: My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. in hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 more in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. But the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to the elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. On the other hand, there are enough reasons to suspect Norvell is ahead of the curve as to where college football has been going.
GEORGIA TECH: Any concern that the Yellow Jackets jumped the gun on giving Brent Kay the permanent head coaching job after a small sample size in 2022 when he went 4-4 down the stretch taking over for the fired Geoff Collins was put to rest last season. Georgia Tech upset Wake Forest, Miami (FL), and Virginia all on the road before beating Central Florida by a 30-17 score in the Gasparilla Bowl to secure a 7-6 record (and 5-3 in the ACC). For the first time in five seasons, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24.0 Points-Per-Game with sophomore quarterback Haynes King leading the way to a 31.1 PPG scoring average. The former four-star recruit from Texas A&M is poised for a breakout campaign in his junior season under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke. The dual-threat QB accounted for 35 total touchdowns — and he has seven starters back to join him. It is the other side of the ball that remains the work in progress. Georgia Tech ranks 120th in the nation by allowing 437.1 Yards-Per-Game. Five starters return — and Kay brought in nine transfers and hired Tyler Santucci as the new defensive coordinator after he oversaw a good Duke defense last year. The group needs more depth and playmakers — but improving on their run defense that ranked 128th in the FBS by allowing 221.3 YPG with opposing rushers generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Kay was able to retain several important players from the temptations of the transfer portal. He is building a culture focused on toughness and doing an admirable job bringing in talent despite the high academic standards in the Admissions Office. But a brutal schedule awaits with every opponent on the roster making the postseason last year.
JACKSONVILLE STATE: Last year, I wondered if the Gamecocks could become the next debutante from the FCS to find immediate success at the FBS level. Not only did head coach Rich Rodriguez oversee a 9-4 record, they became the first former FCS program to win a bowl game in their first season (0-4 previously) when they survived giving up three defensive touchdowns in a 34-31 victory against UL-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl. No one will question Rodriguez’s offensive chops as one of the originators of zone reads and spread offenses. The surprising dynamic of last year’s team was just how good the defense is still despite the jump-up in competition to the FBS level and Conference USA. Jacksonville State held their opponents to 22.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Zac Alley did such a good job that he impressed Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables to poach him as the Sooners’ next defensive coordinator. Rodriguez tapped long-time defensive analyst at Tulsa, Luke Olson, to run the defense this season. Rodriguez must replace a starting quarterback, his top two running backs, and his two top wide receivers from last year — but that is not as large a hurdle as it appears. He always rotates his players on both sides of the ball so experienced players return. He played the hot hand at quarterback last season — and former Nebraska transfer Logan Smothers is back after accounting for 13 touchdowns last year. Rodriguez also brought in several transfers including former UConn starter Zion Turner. Don’t underestimate Rodriguez’s ability to find dual-threat QBs and speedy players at the skill positions that fit his unique offense. He continues to find these players at the lower division levels — but now he has added several FBS and Power Five conference talent to fill these roles. Last year’s team was still dominated by players recruited to play at the FCS level. Now Rodriguez has assembled a roster of players primarily recruited by FBS rivals.
MINNESOTA: There is a very good chance that the Golden Gophers will be better than their record as they draw a brutal schedule in the revamped Big Ten. After two straight 9-4 campaigns, Minnesota took a step back last year with a 6-7 record — although they did beat Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 30-24 score. The Golden Gophers could not pass the ball last season under sophomore quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. They ranked 123rd in the nation by averaging only 143.4 passing Yards-Per-Game. Kaliakmanis left for Rutgers as head coach P.J. Fleck brought in Max Brosmer who led the FCS in passing yards for New Hampshire last season. Brosmer grew into the job during spring practice and was named a team captain by his teammates. Fleck will still operate a run-first attack on offense with talented sophomore running back Darius Taylor who rushed for 808 yards in six games before getting injured. The offensive line is a strength with four starters returning. The defense took a step back last season after ranking eighth in total yards allowed in 2022 — they fell to 54th in the nation last season by giving up 368.4 total YPG. Eight starters return — but Fleck had to find a new defensive coordinator after Joe Rossi left to take the same job at Michigan State. Former James Madison defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman comes in after coaching linebackers at Rutgers last year. The ceiling for this program is not as high as several of their Big Ten opponents because Fleck is simply not able to recruit with those national powers at Minnesota — but the floor is pretty high under Fleck. If Brosmer offers a significant upgrade at quarterback and the defense improves from last year’s “floor,” the Golden Gophers will be a dangerous out.
NEVADA: This program hit rock bottom three years ago when head coach Mike Norvell bolted the program for Colorado State and took many key players with him. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno for the first season under former Oregon defensive coordinator Ken Wilson. After two straight 2-10 seasons, the program moved on from Wilson and brought in another defensive coach in Jeff Choate who had been the co-defensive coordinator at Texas for the last three seasons. On paper, the hire makes sense since Choate has been an assistant coach for Mountain West Conference programs — and he was the former head coach at Montana State before taking them to the FCS Semifinals in 2019. But it’s a Herculean assignment to revive a program that is one of the clear losers in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal. Wilson was not able to clean up the defense that ranked 123rd in the FBS last year by allowing 441.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The offense collapsed the last two years — they scored 18.8 Points-Per-Game in 2022 before falling to 17.3 PPG (T-124th) last year. The Wolf Pack will be the underdog in almost all their games — but they could be dangerous relative to point spread expectations. Losing in the transfer portal and NIL resigns programs to Last Chance Saloon status regarding players from other programs — but Nevada does have many blue-chip transfers come in from Power Five conferences looking to make a name for themselves in Reno. It could be worse, from a talent perspective.
NORTH CAROLINA: Another season under head coach Mack Brown, and another underwhelming record. In his five seasons back with the program, the Tar Heels have not won more than nine games. They have reached only one ACC Championship Game. Despite having the number three pick in the April NFL Draft at quarterback in Drake Maye, North Carolina finished with only an 8-5 record including a 4-4 mark in conference play. Once again, the defense failed to meet expectations of their blue-chip potential as the unit ranked 94th in the nation by giving up 404.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Eight opponents scored at least 30 points against them. Brown relieved Gene Chizik of his duties after the season and tapped Geoff Collins to be his third defensive coordinator in four years. Seven starters return along with nine of the 16 players who were on the field for at least 300 snaps last season. Brown continued to be aggressive in the transfer portal as he brought in senior quarterback Max Johnson from Texas A&M. He will compete with redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell for the starting quarterback job after playing five games last year including their bowl game. Either way, the quarterback position is taking a step back. The wide receiver room is stacked and running back Omarion Hampton is a tackle-breaking machine who ran for 1504 yards last year. But the offensive line replaces five of their top six players on the depth chart.
OKLAHOMA: The Sooners rebounded from their first losing season since 1998 to go 10-3 last year in the second season under head coach Brent Venables. The former defensive coordinator in Norman under Bob Stoops before coordinating the defense at Clemson under Dabo Swinney pulled off his third straight top-ten recruiting class. But his teams have lost seven of their ten games decided by one scoring possession. Now with Oklahoma making their debut in the SEC, I have concerns that the roster that Venables has assembled is not ready for that level of competition week in and week out. Holes on both sides of the line can be covered up in Big 12 play — but that won’t fly in this conference. The interior defensive linemen averaged 291 pounds in the spring game. The offensive line is being completely rebuilt with all five starters gone from last season. Venables has done a complete 180 flip from his criticism of Deion Sanders’ use of the transfer portal — and he brought in five transfers on the offensive line who have 114 career starts. Talent and certainly cohesion remain questions with that group. Venables turns to former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold at quarterback after senior Dillon Gabriel chose to spend his last season in college playing for Oregon. The wide receiver room is loaded — and the Sooners have a talented running back room. But this style of play with four wide receivers on the field most of the time may not be conducive to success in the SEC. The pass-happy attack does no favors for the defense either. Eleven of the top 13 tacklers return — and the linebackers and defensive backs appear to be elite, on paper. But this group ranked only 77th in the nation by surrendering 389.4 Yards-Per-Game last year with that group getting exposed often in the second half of the year. This was the unit Venables was supposed to fix — and he did fire defensive coordinator Ted Roof in the offseason. Defensive backs coach Jay Valai got promoted to co-defensive coordinator along with former aide at Clemson Zac Alley who ran the defense at Jacksonville State last season. With perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, there is a lot of pressure on this program and Venables, in particular.
SMU: The Mustangs were very active in the transfer portal last offseason with head coach Rhett Lashlee poaching several players from Miami (FL) where he had previously been the offensive coordinator. He employed a similar strategy on defense by using Liberty as his minor league program where defensive coordinator Scott Symons had previously run the defense. It worked. SMU won the American Athletic Conference regular season and Conference Championship Game en route to an 11-3 record. Preston Stone developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the country — and the junior returns along with seven other starters on offense. But it was the play of the defense that transformed this program. After ranking 111th in the nation in 2022 by surrendering 431.2 total Yards-Per-Game, the Mustangs improved to 12th in the FBS by giving up only 304.1 YPG. Lashlee has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding the transfer portal — and he was very active once again this offseason. With only two starters returning on the offensive line, he brought in five transfers on the offensive line from Power Five conference programs. He added double-digit transfers on defense including eight linemen from Power Five conference teams. Lashlee certainly understands the challenge in SMU’s move to the ACC. While the Mustangs won all 11 of their games against Group of Five teams, all three of their losses last season were to Power Five conference foes — and they only averaged 14.0 Points-Per-Game in those games and never topped 17 points. They have lost nine of their last ten games against Power Five teams.
TEMPLE: The Matt Rhule era when the Owls won 20 games and an American Athletic Conference title in 2015-16 is now a distant memory. The program floundered under head coach Rod Carey — and they have gone just 10-33 in the last four seasons. Temple is on the shortlist for the biggest losers in the transfer portal/NIL era. Third-year head coach Stan Drayton inherited a nightmare from the aftershocks of the mass exodus at the end of Carey’s tenure. Now Drayton is trapped in the negative feedback loop with any good players developed then leaving the program for greener pastures. The Owls return only 10 starters with many of their best players entering the transfer portal. Quarterback E.J. Warner transferred to Rice, although I’m not sure that loss is as bad as advertised. Temple only scored 21.1 Points-Per-Game last year, ranking 107th in the FBS, under the son of the Hall of Famer’s leadership. Drayton has brought in 43 new players this season. The defense ranked 124th in the nation by surrendering 35.7 PPG. Five starters return — and Drayton added 20 transfer players. The problem is that Temple is on the wrong end of the talent transfer. Seven of those 20 transfers on defense are from junior college programs. And while diamonds in the rough can be found in the juco ranks, relying on these players is not the formula for success at the FBS level. Drayton seems to have improved the culture that sank under Carey. But after getting outgained by -67 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play in 2022, the Owls took a step back last year by getting outgained by -96 YPG.
WESTERN MICHIGAN: The Broncos fired head coach Tim Lester after a 5-7 record in 2022 which was the program’s first losing season since 2013. Lester oversaw a 37-32 record in Kalamazoo, but the administration may have been concerned about a stalling offense that scored 21 or fewer points in nine games. They tapped Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor as their new head coach banking on his resume that included stints in the NFL and Notre Dame as an assistant coach. Yet Western Michigan dropped to 4-8 last year with the offense scoring 17 or fewer points in five of their eight losses. Perhaps the Broncos were destined for an ugly rebuilding season with just ten starters returning last year. But now Taylor is replacing both his coordinators in his second season. Defensive coordinator Lou Esposito left the program after 11 seasons on staff to become the co-defensive coordinator at Memphis before eventually taking the defensive line coach job at Michigan. Offensive coordinator Billy Cosh left to become the head coach at Stony Brook. Did these coaches leave because these were better long-term opportunities? Or were they abandoning ship from a program in decline that lost seven games by 13 or more points and four by 24 or more points? Taylor has more experience this season with 17 returning starters including senior quarterback Hayden Wolff who completed 65.5% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and five interceptions. But after 22 previous starts at Old Dominion before transferring into the program onto a team that completed 49.9% of their passes, why wasn’t he given the keys to the offense before the last five games of the season? Taylor is trying to build a new identity for this team while taking his lumps in the transfer portal. What are the realistic expectations of this program in the world of NIL and the transfer portal?
WISCONSIN: The Badgers come off a disappointing 7-6 season last year under first-year head coach Luke Fickell did not seem to get better results than the previous year’s team that all finished 7-6 which led to Paul Chryst getting fired in early October of that year. The excuses were flying. Injuries impacted the offense. Fickell was disappointed with some of the assistant coaches (that he fired) — so he brought in four new assistant coaches in the offseason. There was a focus in the offseason to get faster, longer, and more athletic on defense which Fickell attempted to address in the transfer portal. But there were deeper issues last year which Fickell will be held to account. Team chemistry hit rock bottom after a mid-November 14-point loss to Northwestern. The hiring of offensive coordinator Phil Longo to install his up-tempo Air Raid system seemed like an odd fit for this program that has enjoyed years of success as a physical team with great offensive lines and tough defenses that thrive in colder weather. The players struggled to pick up the new schemes that did not appear to be a great fit for the talent available. The unit lost their identity (for example, they rarely had the quarterback under center, leading to poor execution in short-yardage situations when being in shotgun was disadvantageous). An offense that ranked 76th in the nation by scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game two years ago took another step back by scoring only 23.5 PPG last year, ranking 91st in the FBS. Perhaps another year of learning the system will help things click this season. And, once again, Fickell used the portal to add talent at quarterback by tapping Tyler Van Dyke from Miami (FL). But like Tanner Mordecai coming in from SMU last year, is Fickell simply finding retreads from other programs? Van Dyke got benched by the Hurricanes near the end of the season after a four-game stretch where he turned the ball over 11 times. To his credit, he did not throw an interception in his final two games of the season while throwing for 617 yards — but questions about his consistency remain. With a brutal schedule that features Alabama in non-conference along with USC, Oregon, and Penn State, things could unravel quickly if chemistry issues remain or the offense does not improve.
Best of luck for us — Frank.
