by Hollywood Sports
Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
AKRON: Is the improvement in the second half of the season under first-year head coach Joe Moorhead sustainable heading into his second season? After generating only 4.9 Yards-Per-Play in their first nine games, the Zips averaged 5.7 YPP in their last three contests. On defense, Akron limited their final three opponents to 4.3 YPP after surrendering 6.6 YPP in their first nine games. Despite a 1-7 record in the Mid-American Conference, the Zips outgained their opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game — and they outgained their conference rivals by +109 YPG in their last three contests. Turnovers played a large role in holding them back as they ranked tied for third in the FBS with a -13 net turnover margin. They had a 1-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Moorehead has 15 starters back from that group.
ARIZONA STATE: The Herm Edwards era unceremoniously ended after a 1-2 start last year amidst being a target of NCAA investigations for recruiting violations. With a mass exodus of players in the transfer portal, the program has been sitting on a ticking time bomb that finally went off. After hitting rock bottom with a 3-9 record, Oregon co-offensive coordinator and former Arizona State graduate Kenny Dillingham takes over as the new head coach. The 33-year-old faces a massive rebuild despite 13 starters back from last season. There are at least 48 new players not the roster this season including 32 players coming in from the transfer portal.
ARMY: How successful will the Black Knights transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation? Head coach Jeff Monken is abandoning the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the recent change in the cut-blocking rules has hampered the effectiveness of the triple option scheme. Army’s scoring average fell from 32.8 Points-Per-Game to 28.6 PPG last season after that rule change. While the Black Knights finished the season with a 6-6 record, two of their victories were against FCS teams and two more of their wins were against the lowly Massachusetts and Connecticut.
BALL STATE: Was the Cardinals’Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season? Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since with an 11-14 record overall and a 7-9 conference mark in the last two years. Neu is on the hot seat with just the one winning season in his previous seven years as the Cardinals head coach. Fourteen starters are back from the group that finished 5-7 last year — but they lost some of their best players. Quarterback John Paddock transferred to Illinois while running back Carson Steele left for UCLA. They lost their top two receivers to graduation — and they are replacing three defensive backs who are now on NFL rosters.
BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat.
BOWLING GREEN: Will the Falcons continue to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation? Last year, they upset Marshall but got upset by Eastern Kentucky and beaten by Ohio by 24 points. They were also fortunate in an upset victory against a Toledo team using a backup quarterback looking ahead to the MAC Championship Game. How do we judge a team that was 5-2 in games decided by one scoring possession while pulling off four upset victories but getting upset twice themselves along the way? Head coach Scott Loeffler has 13 starters back from that group that finished 6-7 overall but 5-3 in the conference.
BUFFALO: Why did this program not bring in a single transfer from an FBS program while losing several players — is that a sign that third-year head coach Maurice Linguist is comfortable with the roster and culture he is building or is it a harbinger that this team is going to take a step back from their 7-6 campaign last year? I thought Linguist had been doing a great job using the transfer portal to bring in Power Five conference players to fill holes in the starting lineup on both sides of the ball — so the lack of activity was surprising. The Bulls bring back only ten starters from last year’s team that beat Georgia Southern by a 23-21 score in the Camellia Bowl.
COLORADO STATE: Can the Rams make another jump in head coach Jay Norvell’s second season as they did in the second half of last year? Norvell brought 11 players with him last season when he left Nevada after five seasons -- but he was down to only 59 scholarship players at one point last year after cleaning house. In their first six games, they only averaged 243.7 Yards-Per-Game. But the team eventually bought in to his expectations and the teaching of the coaching staff as the Rams outgained their last four opponents by +76 Yards-Per-Game despite a 3-9 overall record. The offense improved to 324.2 total YPG in their last six games while the defense held their Mountain West Conference opponents to 20 Points-Per-Game and just 325 YPG. Now after signing perhaps the best freshman class in program history, Norvell is back up to 85 scholarship players — and 15 starters return. BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat.
EASTERN MICHIGAN: Can the Eagles continue to overachieve under head coach Chris Creighton? Eastern Michigan got outgained in Mid-American Conference play by -9.0 Yards-Per-Game but still posted a 5-3 conference record. They pulled off five upset wins — and they had a 4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession which helped them finish 9-4 with their second bowl victory in program history in their 41-27 victory against San Jose State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Critics can continue to claim these are outlier results but the Eagles have pulled off 22 upset victories in the last six seasons. Entering his tenth year as head coach, Eastern Michigan has seen 53 of their last 73 games decided by one scoring possession.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC: Former Texas head coach Tom Herman takes over running the Owls as they move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. Eighteen starters return from last year’s group that finished 5-7. The defense ranked 106th in the nation by giving up 424.8 total Yards-Per-Game but 18 of the 19 players who were on the field for at least 250 snaps are back. Herman added another nine players in the transfer portal in an attempt to improve the talent base. He also used the portal to upgrade the quarterback room by bringing in Daniel Richardson from Central Michigan and Casey Thompson from Nebraska (and who played for Herman at Texas). FAU underperformed expectations last season — but the upgrade in conferences may be difficult for a program that has lost 27 games in a row against Power Five conference opponents.
IOWA STATE: Does the Cyclones’ recent inability to win close games due for regression — or is it systemic a deeper problem inside head coach Matt Campbell’s program? Iowa State has lost 10 of their last 11 games decided by one scoring possession. They had a 1-6 record in one-score games last season. They finished the year with a 4-8 record despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game — and in Big 12 play, they had a 1-8 record despite ranking sixth in the conference by outgaining their opponents by +52 net YPG. Turnovers played a role in holding them back as did an inefficient offense inside the Red Zone. But the lack of athleticism on the roster may simply get exposed at key moments of the game. After seven years, perhaps Campbell and his coaching staff deserve credit for an overachieving roster — but without NFL talent like quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall (and David Montgomery before him), the talent simply isn’t there to execute against the better teams in the Big 12.
NORTH CAROLINA: The Tar Heels had a 9-1 record after ten games but lost their last four contests to end the season including a 39-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and then a 28-27 loss to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. Head coach Mach Brown has turned the program around that he returned to five years ago after hitting rock bottom in 2019 with a 2-9 record. Yet it still seems as if his teams are not meeting up to their expectations in the ACC. The nine victories last year were the most the Tar Heels have won in Brown’s second tenure with the program. I have questions about the underlying culture. Is Brown too dependent on the transfer portal? Players on the defensive side of the ball are not being developed to meet their recruiting rankings. North Carolina ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 436.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The offense scored only 20.1 Points-Per-Game in their last four games which was nearly half the 40.1 PPG they generated in their first ten games. Seventeen starters return led by ACC Player of the Year Drake May at quarterback. Yet will many be surprised if, once again, the defense disappoints and the team fails to beat the upper echelon of the ACC?
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Did the Huskies underachieve last season — or is inconsistency seemingly the consistent characteristic for this team under head coach Thomas Hammock? After a 5-7 season in his first year with the program, Northern Illinois was 0-6 in the COVID 2020 season. They responded by winning the Mid-American Conference championship in 2021 before taking a few steps back last year with a 3-9 record despite returning 18 starters. Hammock can point to the slew of injuries his team suffered. And despite a 2-6 record in conference play, they were only outgained by -2.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies got upset six times and lost four of their six games decided by one scoring possession. Fifteen starters return including seventh-year senior Rocky Lombardi who quarterbacked their title run two years ago.
NORTH TEXAS: Did the powers at be at North Texas push the panic button too soon when firing head coach Sean Littrell despite him leading the Mean Green to the Conference USA Championship Game? After their 48-27 loss on the road against UTSA in that contest, Littrell was let go with critics citing his 0-5 record in bowl games. But remember that he inherited a 1-11 team that had not played in a bowl game since 2014 — and he got them to six bowl games in his seven years with the program. Now as the team leaves Conference USA for the most difficult American Athletic Conference, they bring in a rookie head coach at the FBS level in Eric Morris. The Mike Leach disciple was the offensive coordinator at Washington State last season after a successful four-year run as the head coach at Incarnate Word. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team — and they brought in junior quarterback Chandler Rogers from UL-Monroe in the transfer portal. But what are the expectations in Denton for this football team — and are they reasonable?
OKLAHOMA: Brent Venables as an assistant coach for 29 seasons which included 13 years as the Sooners’ defensive coordinator under Bob Stoops. He returned to Norman as the head coach last season with high expectations while replacing Lincoln Riley who went out west to USC. Oklahoma had not lost for than two games in seven straight seasons. Along the way, Venables felt compelled to make his feelings known about Deion Sanders’ Colorado team and the negative impact on team culture was his aggressive use of the transfer portal. Yet a year later and after a 6-7 record where the Sooners failed to finish the season ranked in the national polls for the first time since 2014, guess who changed his tune on the transfer portal? Venables took full advantage of the transfer portal with 63 new players on the roster. And the head coach bemoaning the importance of continuity when it comes to culture had overseen 56 of the 71 players that suited up for the Cheez-It Bowl (a 35-32 loss to Florida State) leave the program in one way or another. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is one of seven starters to return on offense — but that unit lost several key player makers. On the other side of the ball, there remains the question of whether the talent exists — especially in the front seven — to operate the same schemes that Venables had so much success with recently with Clemson. After their first losing season since 1998, the question will also be raised that while Venables can talk the talk as a head coach, can he walk the walk with these new responsibilities in the twilight of his career?
SOUTH FLORIDA: Is the challenge for this program too big for rookie head coach Alex Goresh? The Bulls have won only four games in the last three seasons after their 1-11 campaign last season. They have a 1-33 record against FBS programs since 2019. Not only were they winless in their eight games against American Athletic Conference foes last season, but they got outgained by -116 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Goresh comes in from Tennessee after serving as the offensive coordinator the last two seasons (albeit with the Volunteers’ head coach Josh Huepel calling the plays). Thirteen starters return from last year’s team but only four on the offensive side of the ball in a unit that was hit hard in the transfer market. The defense has nine starters back plus another 11 transfers in an attempt to upgrade the talent to a unit that ranked 130th in the nation by allowing 516.6 YPG.
TCU: The Horned Frogs were a great story last year as they took on the role of Cinderella to reach the National Championship Game under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes — before harsh reality set in when facing the reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. Dykes was masterful in using the transfer portal last season — but is it simply too much to ask for him to pull off that trick again given all the losses this team has experienced since that 65-7 loss to Georgia? The Horned Frogs return only 10 starters after losing eight players to the NFL draft and another three players to the NFL as undrafted free agents. The team also lost their brilliant offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to the same job at Clemson. Dykes is recruiting the State of Texas well — and he seems to be winning with the transfer portal. But the losses may be simply overwhelming for a team whose magical run included a 6-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession.
TEXAS: Head coach Steve Sarkisian continues to bring in great recruiting classes — but the results on the field have only produced a 13-12 record in his first two seasons in Austin. Sixteen starters are back from the team that finished 8-5 last year after a 27-20 loss to Washington in the Alamo Bowl. The Longhorns lost five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession last year. The talent level remains very high for this Texas roster — but the issue remains the results on the field. Is redshirt sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers really the guy? His best performances were against unranked opponents — and he only completed 29 of 74 passes (39.2%) of his passes of more than 15 air yards, ranking 80th in the FBS last season, Five-star freshman Arch Manning breathes down his neck to take his job if he slips up.
TEXAS A&M: After five losses in the SEC by six points or less, the culture that head coach Jimbo Fisher needs to be questioned. Despite consistent top-10 recruiting classes and signing a 10-year, $95 million extension in 2021, this program seems to be moving in the wrong direction after their 9-1 campaign in 2020-21. The Aggies did upset an Alabama team ranked number one in the nation at the time the next season, but that team finished 8-4. Last year’s team posted a 5-7 record with only two victories in their eight SEC games is an unacceptable result given all the talent recruited and bought to play at College Station. In hindsight, perhaps Fisher’s aggressiveness in attracting recruits with NIL money contributed to the problem he now has. His solution for this crucial year was to bring into controversial new coordinators. Former Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin runs the defense as his career moves forward after one of his players died from heat stroke during his time with the Terrapins. It was later reported that the atmosphere in that program was rife with intimidation and abuse. Durkin’s rap sheet is mild when compared to that of Bobby Petrino in his various tenures at the University of Arkansas and Louisville as well as his brief stint in the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons. Fisher has given up the play-calling to accommodate Petrino. With this powder keg of a coaching situation in this environment, what could go wrong? The Aggies' offense remains plagued by ineffective offensive lines. They ranked 100th in the nation by scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game. After ranking no worse than 32nd in the nation in total defense while giving up no more than 348.4 YPG in the first four years under Phillips, Texas A&M surrendered 365.1 YPG which ranked 51st in the nation. Perhaps the All-Star collection of college football minds can reverse these trends. Or, perhaps Fisher does not survive the season if the losses continue to pile up.
TEXAS STATE: Former Incarnate Word head coach G.J. Kinne takes over a program that has not had a winning season since 2014. In the previous four seasons under head coach Jake Spavital, the Bobcats were just 13-31. Kinne led Incarnate Word to the FCS semifinals with a high-powered offense that generated 51.5 Points-Per-Game and 581 Yards-Per-Game. The former Tulsa quarterback and then later the co-offensive coordinator at Central Florida wants to dictate tempo on offense by embracing fast and slow tempo depending on the game situation. He relied on over 40 transfers in the portal (including seven from Incarnate Word) to join a team returning 11 starters. Texas State finished 4-8 last year but they lost six of their eight games in Sun Belt play while getting outgained by -88 YPG which ranked 12th in the conference.
TOLEDO: Will the Rockets’ Mid-American Conference championship last year open the doors for them to begin consistently dominating the conference? Granted, that was the second MAC title in head coach Jason Candle’s seven seasons with the program — but there has been a sentiment that he has underachieved relative to the quality of his recruiting classes during his tenure that have usually been the top of the league. Toledo reached the MAC Championship Game to then beat Ohio by a 17-7 score despite four of their losses being by seven points or less — with three of those losses in conference play. Critics of Candle will point to four upset losses as continuing evidence that his teams too often fall flat.
TROY: Is regression all but inevitable for the Trojans after a 12-2 campaign where they beat Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game before an 18-12 victory against UTSA in the Cure Bowl? Under first-year head coach Jon Sumrall, Troy posted a 6-1 record in games decided by one possession or less — and they pulled off four upset wins. Only 12 starters return from that team with the defense replacing five of their top eight tacklers along with defensive coordinator Shiel Wood who took the same job at Tulane. But nine of the 16 players who took at least 300 snaps are back this season — and the offense will once again be led by senior quarterback Gunnar Watson and All-Sun Belt Conference running back Kimani Vidal.
UL-LAFAYETTE: Was their 6-7 campaign under first-year head coach Mike Desmormeaux a blip on the radar a blip or a sign of things to come after their previous head coach Billy Napier left to take the Florida job? The Ragin’ Cajuns did outgain their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +36 Yards-Per-Game despite a 4-4 mark in conference play. They lost all four of their games decided by one scoring possession including a 23-16 loss to Houston in the Independence Bowl. However, the roster is bleeding players away in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball — including two starters on defense after spring practice.
UTSA: How will the Roadrunners adjust to the upgrade in competition in their move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference? They come off a Conference USA title after completing their perfect 8-0 conference record with a 48-27 victory against North Texas in the conference championship game. UTSA has won 20 of their last 23 games against Conference USA opponents — but they are just 11-7 in their last 18 games against teams outside that conference. They have lost ten games in a row against ranked opponents. Sixteen starters return this season including their quarterback Frank Harris who will be playing in his seventh year with the program. He leads an offense that ranked 12th in the nation last year by generating 476.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense has eight starters and 11 players back that logged in 300 or more snaps last season.
VIRGINIA: Is the jury out already on second-year head coach Tony Elliott? The longtime Clemson offensive coordinator struggled in his first season with the Cavaliers with a 3-7 record — and now he is dealing with a host of challenges on and off the field. Elliott lacked a professional demeanor by ripping his assistant coaches in post-game press conferences as the team lost six of their final seven games. Certainly, the decision to cut their season short after the gun shooting tragedy on campus that directly impacted the team then complicated matters. Virginia seems to be losing in the transfer portal market. Senior quarterback Brennan Armstrong left for North Carolina State — and Elliott brought in Tony Muskett from Monmouth as his replacement. Replacing a veteran QB who has led the nation since 2019 by averaging 436.1 total Yards-Per-Game against FBS opponents with a QB from the FCS level seems to be a downgrade. Given all this, can Elliott learn from his mistakes and regroup to lead this inexperienced team?
WAKE FOREST: Is the Demon Deacons’ seven-game bowl streak in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson? Only 11 starters return from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Six starters are back from a defensive unit whose numbers look better due to holding Army and VMI to ten points apiece. The Demon Deacons still ranked 81st in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game — and they ranked 92nd in the FBS by giving up 406.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They allowed 30 or more points seven times.
WESTERN MICHIGAN: How steep a climb does first-year head coach Lance Taylor face with the Broncos firing head coach Tim Lester after the program’s first losing season since 2013? Last year’s team finished 5-7 overall with a 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference but got outgained by -28 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. It was the decline of the production on offense that may have done Lester in despite his 37-32 record in his six seasons with the program. The Broncos ranked 124th in the nation by averaging only 301.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They also ranked 118th in the FBS by scoring 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and they scored 21 points or less in nine of their 12 games. Taylor was Louisville’s offensive coordinator last year but he may need some time to rebuild this offense since the quarterback room again features second-year freshman Treyson Bourguet and redshirt sophomore Jack Salopek. The offense completed only 49.9% of their passes last year. The coaching change led to an exodus of players leaving the program in the transfer portal including 1000-yard running back Sean Tyler and leading receiver Corey Crooms who both joined former Western Michigan head coach P.J. Fleck at Minnesota. Linebacker Ryan Selig also left for Minnesota -- leaving the defense with only two returning starters and just three of the 12 players that logged in 250 or more snaps last year.
WISCONSIN: Luke Fickell takes over as head coach after posting a 57-17 record at Cincinnati which included an appearance in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator has eight starters back on defense from a group that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game. That side of the ball should remain excellent. The concern is on the other side of the line of scrimmage after the Badgers only generated 363.8 total YPG, ranking 90th in the FBS. Wisconsin has a talented running back returning in junior Braelon Allen who rushed for 1242 yards last year. But quarterback play was lacking in previous head coach Paul Chryst’s tenure. Fickell addressed that issue by bringing in sixth-year senior Tanner Mordecai from SMU. With 24 career starts under his belt, Mordecai has passed for 7152 yards with 72 touchdown passes in the last two seasons. Fickell also tapped former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the offense — but I have questions if installing his up-tempo Air Raid is a good fit. The Badgers’ culture has emphasized physicality and defense in the past. Trying to replicate a Big 12 offense in the chilly Madison, Wisconsin weather may have drawbacks. And Mordecai is not nearly as mobile as someone like Drake Maye who was the last quarterback Longo coached two years ago.
Best of luck — Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.
AKRON: Is the improvement in the second half of the season under first-year head coach Joe Moorhead sustainable heading into his second season? After generating only 4.9 Yards-Per-Play in their first nine games, the Zips averaged 5.7 YPP in their last three contests. On defense, Akron limited their final three opponents to 4.3 YPP after surrendering 6.6 YPP in their first nine games. Despite a 1-7 record in the Mid-American Conference, the Zips outgained their opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game — and they outgained their conference rivals by +109 YPG in their last three contests. Turnovers played a large role in holding them back as they ranked tied for third in the FBS with a -13 net turnover margin. They had a 1-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Moorehead has 15 starters back from that group.
ARIZONA STATE: The Herm Edwards era unceremoniously ended after a 1-2 start last year amidst being a target of NCAA investigations for recruiting violations. With a mass exodus of players in the transfer portal, the program has been sitting on a ticking time bomb that finally went off. After hitting rock bottom with a 3-9 record, Oregon co-offensive coordinator and former Arizona State graduate Kenny Dillingham takes over as the new head coach. The 33-year-old faces a massive rebuild despite 13 starters back from last season. There are at least 48 new players not the roster this season including 32 players coming in from the transfer portal.
ARMY: How successful will the Black Knights transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation? Head coach Jeff Monken is abandoning the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the recent change in the cut-blocking rules has hampered the effectiveness of the triple option scheme. Army’s scoring average fell from 32.8 Points-Per-Game to 28.6 PPG last season after that rule change. While the Black Knights finished the season with a 6-6 record, two of their victories were against FCS teams and two more of their wins were against the lowly Massachusetts and Connecticut.
BALL STATE: Was the Cardinals’Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season? Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since with an 11-14 record overall and a 7-9 conference mark in the last two years. Neu is on the hot seat with just the one winning season in his previous seven years as the Cardinals head coach. Fourteen starters are back from the group that finished 5-7 last year — but they lost some of their best players. Quarterback John Paddock transferred to Illinois while running back Carson Steele left for UCLA. They lost their top two receivers to graduation — and they are replacing three defensive backs who are now on NFL rosters.
BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat.
BOWLING GREEN: Will the Falcons continue to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation? Last year, they upset Marshall but got upset by Eastern Kentucky and beaten by Ohio by 24 points. They were also fortunate in an upset victory against a Toledo team using a backup quarterback looking ahead to the MAC Championship Game. How do we judge a team that was 5-2 in games decided by one scoring possession while pulling off four upset victories but getting upset twice themselves along the way? Head coach Scott Loeffler has 13 starters back from that group that finished 6-7 overall but 5-3 in the conference.
BUFFALO: Why did this program not bring in a single transfer from an FBS program while losing several players — is that a sign that third-year head coach Maurice Linguist is comfortable with the roster and culture he is building or is it a harbinger that this team is going to take a step back from their 7-6 campaign last year? I thought Linguist had been doing a great job using the transfer portal to bring in Power Five conference players to fill holes in the starting lineup on both sides of the ball — so the lack of activity was surprising. The Bulls bring back only ten starters from last year’s team that beat Georgia Southern by a 23-21 score in the Camellia Bowl.
COLORADO STATE: Can the Rams make another jump in head coach Jay Norvell’s second season as they did in the second half of last year? Norvell brought 11 players with him last season when he left Nevada after five seasons -- but he was down to only 59 scholarship players at one point last year after cleaning house. In their first six games, they only averaged 243.7 Yards-Per-Game. But the team eventually bought in to his expectations and the teaching of the coaching staff as the Rams outgained their last four opponents by +76 Yards-Per-Game despite a 3-9 overall record. The offense improved to 324.2 total YPG in their last six games while the defense held their Mountain West Conference opponents to 20 Points-Per-Game and just 325 YPG. Now after signing perhaps the best freshman class in program history, Norvell is back up to 85 scholarship players — and 15 starters return. BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat.
EASTERN MICHIGAN: Can the Eagles continue to overachieve under head coach Chris Creighton? Eastern Michigan got outgained in Mid-American Conference play by -9.0 Yards-Per-Game but still posted a 5-3 conference record. They pulled off five upset wins — and they had a 4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession which helped them finish 9-4 with their second bowl victory in program history in their 41-27 victory against San Jose State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Critics can continue to claim these are outlier results but the Eagles have pulled off 22 upset victories in the last six seasons. Entering his tenth year as head coach, Eastern Michigan has seen 53 of their last 73 games decided by one scoring possession.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC: Former Texas head coach Tom Herman takes over running the Owls as they move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. Eighteen starters return from last year’s group that finished 5-7. The defense ranked 106th in the nation by giving up 424.8 total Yards-Per-Game but 18 of the 19 players who were on the field for at least 250 snaps are back. Herman added another nine players in the transfer portal in an attempt to improve the talent base. He also used the portal to upgrade the quarterback room by bringing in Daniel Richardson from Central Michigan and Casey Thompson from Nebraska (and who played for Herman at Texas). FAU underperformed expectations last season — but the upgrade in conferences may be difficult for a program that has lost 27 games in a row against Power Five conference opponents.
IOWA STATE: Does the Cyclones’ recent inability to win close games due for regression — or is it systemic a deeper problem inside head coach Matt Campbell’s program? Iowa State has lost 10 of their last 11 games decided by one scoring possession. They had a 1-6 record in one-score games last season. They finished the year with a 4-8 record despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game — and in Big 12 play, they had a 1-8 record despite ranking sixth in the conference by outgaining their opponents by +52 net YPG. Turnovers played a role in holding them back as did an inefficient offense inside the Red Zone. But the lack of athleticism on the roster may simply get exposed at key moments of the game. After seven years, perhaps Campbell and his coaching staff deserve credit for an overachieving roster — but without NFL talent like quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall (and David Montgomery before him), the talent simply isn’t there to execute against the better teams in the Big 12.
NORTH CAROLINA: The Tar Heels had a 9-1 record after ten games but lost their last four contests to end the season including a 39-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and then a 28-27 loss to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. Head coach Mach Brown has turned the program around that he returned to five years ago after hitting rock bottom in 2019 with a 2-9 record. Yet it still seems as if his teams are not meeting up to their expectations in the ACC. The nine victories last year were the most the Tar Heels have won in Brown’s second tenure with the program. I have questions about the underlying culture. Is Brown too dependent on the transfer portal? Players on the defensive side of the ball are not being developed to meet their recruiting rankings. North Carolina ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 436.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The offense scored only 20.1 Points-Per-Game in their last four games which was nearly half the 40.1 PPG they generated in their first ten games. Seventeen starters return led by ACC Player of the Year Drake May at quarterback. Yet will many be surprised if, once again, the defense disappoints and the team fails to beat the upper echelon of the ACC?
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Did the Huskies underachieve last season — or is inconsistency seemingly the consistent characteristic for this team under head coach Thomas Hammock? After a 5-7 season in his first year with the program, Northern Illinois was 0-6 in the COVID 2020 season. They responded by winning the Mid-American Conference championship in 2021 before taking a few steps back last year with a 3-9 record despite returning 18 starters. Hammock can point to the slew of injuries his team suffered. And despite a 2-6 record in conference play, they were only outgained by -2.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies got upset six times and lost four of their six games decided by one scoring possession. Fifteen starters return including seventh-year senior Rocky Lombardi who quarterbacked their title run two years ago.
NORTH TEXAS: Did the powers at be at North Texas push the panic button too soon when firing head coach Sean Littrell despite him leading the Mean Green to the Conference USA Championship Game? After their 48-27 loss on the road against UTSA in that contest, Littrell was let go with critics citing his 0-5 record in bowl games. But remember that he inherited a 1-11 team that had not played in a bowl game since 2014 — and he got them to six bowl games in his seven years with the program. Now as the team leaves Conference USA for the most difficult American Athletic Conference, they bring in a rookie head coach at the FBS level in Eric Morris. The Mike Leach disciple was the offensive coordinator at Washington State last season after a successful four-year run as the head coach at Incarnate Word. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team — and they brought in junior quarterback Chandler Rogers from UL-Monroe in the transfer portal. But what are the expectations in Denton for this football team — and are they reasonable?
OKLAHOMA: Brent Venables as an assistant coach for 29 seasons which included 13 years as the Sooners’ defensive coordinator under Bob Stoops. He returned to Norman as the head coach last season with high expectations while replacing Lincoln Riley who went out west to USC. Oklahoma had not lost for than two games in seven straight seasons. Along the way, Venables felt compelled to make his feelings known about Deion Sanders’ Colorado team and the negative impact on team culture was his aggressive use of the transfer portal. Yet a year later and after a 6-7 record where the Sooners failed to finish the season ranked in the national polls for the first time since 2014, guess who changed his tune on the transfer portal? Venables took full advantage of the transfer portal with 63 new players on the roster. And the head coach bemoaning the importance of continuity when it comes to culture had overseen 56 of the 71 players that suited up for the Cheez-It Bowl (a 35-32 loss to Florida State) leave the program in one way or another. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is one of seven starters to return on offense — but that unit lost several key player makers. On the other side of the ball, there remains the question of whether the talent exists — especially in the front seven — to operate the same schemes that Venables had so much success with recently with Clemson. After their first losing season since 1998, the question will also be raised that while Venables can talk the talk as a head coach, can he walk the walk with these new responsibilities in the twilight of his career?
SOUTH FLORIDA: Is the challenge for this program too big for rookie head coach Alex Goresh? The Bulls have won only four games in the last three seasons after their 1-11 campaign last season. They have a 1-33 record against FBS programs since 2019. Not only were they winless in their eight games against American Athletic Conference foes last season, but they got outgained by -116 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Goresh comes in from Tennessee after serving as the offensive coordinator the last two seasons (albeit with the Volunteers’ head coach Josh Huepel calling the plays). Thirteen starters return from last year’s team but only four on the offensive side of the ball in a unit that was hit hard in the transfer market. The defense has nine starters back plus another 11 transfers in an attempt to upgrade the talent to a unit that ranked 130th in the nation by allowing 516.6 YPG.
TCU: The Horned Frogs were a great story last year as they took on the role of Cinderella to reach the National Championship Game under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes — before harsh reality set in when facing the reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. Dykes was masterful in using the transfer portal last season — but is it simply too much to ask for him to pull off that trick again given all the losses this team has experienced since that 65-7 loss to Georgia? The Horned Frogs return only 10 starters after losing eight players to the NFL draft and another three players to the NFL as undrafted free agents. The team also lost their brilliant offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to the same job at Clemson. Dykes is recruiting the State of Texas well — and he seems to be winning with the transfer portal. But the losses may be simply overwhelming for a team whose magical run included a 6-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession.
TEXAS: Head coach Steve Sarkisian continues to bring in great recruiting classes — but the results on the field have only produced a 13-12 record in his first two seasons in Austin. Sixteen starters are back from the team that finished 8-5 last year after a 27-20 loss to Washington in the Alamo Bowl. The Longhorns lost five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession last year. The talent level remains very high for this Texas roster — but the issue remains the results on the field. Is redshirt sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers really the guy? His best performances were against unranked opponents — and he only completed 29 of 74 passes (39.2%) of his passes of more than 15 air yards, ranking 80th in the FBS last season, Five-star freshman Arch Manning breathes down his neck to take his job if he slips up.
TEXAS A&M: After five losses in the SEC by six points or less, the culture that head coach Jimbo Fisher needs to be questioned. Despite consistent top-10 recruiting classes and signing a 10-year, $95 million extension in 2021, this program seems to be moving in the wrong direction after their 9-1 campaign in 2020-21. The Aggies did upset an Alabama team ranked number one in the nation at the time the next season, but that team finished 8-4. Last year’s team posted a 5-7 record with only two victories in their eight SEC games is an unacceptable result given all the talent recruited and bought to play at College Station. In hindsight, perhaps Fisher’s aggressiveness in attracting recruits with NIL money contributed to the problem he now has. His solution for this crucial year was to bring into controversial new coordinators. Former Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin runs the defense as his career moves forward after one of his players died from heat stroke during his time with the Terrapins. It was later reported that the atmosphere in that program was rife with intimidation and abuse. Durkin’s rap sheet is mild when compared to that of Bobby Petrino in his various tenures at the University of Arkansas and Louisville as well as his brief stint in the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons. Fisher has given up the play-calling to accommodate Petrino. With this powder keg of a coaching situation in this environment, what could go wrong? The Aggies' offense remains plagued by ineffective offensive lines. They ranked 100th in the nation by scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game. After ranking no worse than 32nd in the nation in total defense while giving up no more than 348.4 YPG in the first four years under Phillips, Texas A&M surrendered 365.1 YPG which ranked 51st in the nation. Perhaps the All-Star collection of college football minds can reverse these trends. Or, perhaps Fisher does not survive the season if the losses continue to pile up.
TEXAS STATE: Former Incarnate Word head coach G.J. Kinne takes over a program that has not had a winning season since 2014. In the previous four seasons under head coach Jake Spavital, the Bobcats were just 13-31. Kinne led Incarnate Word to the FCS semifinals with a high-powered offense that generated 51.5 Points-Per-Game and 581 Yards-Per-Game. The former Tulsa quarterback and then later the co-offensive coordinator at Central Florida wants to dictate tempo on offense by embracing fast and slow tempo depending on the game situation. He relied on over 40 transfers in the portal (including seven from Incarnate Word) to join a team returning 11 starters. Texas State finished 4-8 last year but they lost six of their eight games in Sun Belt play while getting outgained by -88 YPG which ranked 12th in the conference.
TOLEDO: Will the Rockets’ Mid-American Conference championship last year open the doors for them to begin consistently dominating the conference? Granted, that was the second MAC title in head coach Jason Candle’s seven seasons with the program — but there has been a sentiment that he has underachieved relative to the quality of his recruiting classes during his tenure that have usually been the top of the league. Toledo reached the MAC Championship Game to then beat Ohio by a 17-7 score despite four of their losses being by seven points or less — with three of those losses in conference play. Critics of Candle will point to four upset losses as continuing evidence that his teams too often fall flat.
TROY: Is regression all but inevitable for the Trojans after a 12-2 campaign where they beat Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game before an 18-12 victory against UTSA in the Cure Bowl? Under first-year head coach Jon Sumrall, Troy posted a 6-1 record in games decided by one possession or less — and they pulled off four upset wins. Only 12 starters return from that team with the defense replacing five of their top eight tacklers along with defensive coordinator Shiel Wood who took the same job at Tulane. But nine of the 16 players who took at least 300 snaps are back this season — and the offense will once again be led by senior quarterback Gunnar Watson and All-Sun Belt Conference running back Kimani Vidal.
UL-LAFAYETTE: Was their 6-7 campaign under first-year head coach Mike Desmormeaux a blip on the radar a blip or a sign of things to come after their previous head coach Billy Napier left to take the Florida job? The Ragin’ Cajuns did outgain their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +36 Yards-Per-Game despite a 4-4 mark in conference play. They lost all four of their games decided by one scoring possession including a 23-16 loss to Houston in the Independence Bowl. However, the roster is bleeding players away in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball — including two starters on defense after spring practice.
UTSA: How will the Roadrunners adjust to the upgrade in competition in their move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference? They come off a Conference USA title after completing their perfect 8-0 conference record with a 48-27 victory against North Texas in the conference championship game. UTSA has won 20 of their last 23 games against Conference USA opponents — but they are just 11-7 in their last 18 games against teams outside that conference. They have lost ten games in a row against ranked opponents. Sixteen starters return this season including their quarterback Frank Harris who will be playing in his seventh year with the program. He leads an offense that ranked 12th in the nation last year by generating 476.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense has eight starters and 11 players back that logged in 300 or more snaps last season.
VIRGINIA: Is the jury out already on second-year head coach Tony Elliott? The longtime Clemson offensive coordinator struggled in his first season with the Cavaliers with a 3-7 record — and now he is dealing with a host of challenges on and off the field. Elliott lacked a professional demeanor by ripping his assistant coaches in post-game press conferences as the team lost six of their final seven games. Certainly, the decision to cut their season short after the gun shooting tragedy on campus that directly impacted the team then complicated matters. Virginia seems to be losing in the transfer portal market. Senior quarterback Brennan Armstrong left for North Carolina State — and Elliott brought in Tony Muskett from Monmouth as his replacement. Replacing a veteran QB who has led the nation since 2019 by averaging 436.1 total Yards-Per-Game against FBS opponents with a QB from the FCS level seems to be a downgrade. Given all this, can Elliott learn from his mistakes and regroup to lead this inexperienced team?
WAKE FOREST: Is the Demon Deacons’ seven-game bowl streak in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson? Only 11 starters return from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Six starters are back from a defensive unit whose numbers look better due to holding Army and VMI to ten points apiece. The Demon Deacons still ranked 81st in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game — and they ranked 92nd in the FBS by giving up 406.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They allowed 30 or more points seven times.
WESTERN MICHIGAN: How steep a climb does first-year head coach Lance Taylor face with the Broncos firing head coach Tim Lester after the program’s first losing season since 2013? Last year’s team finished 5-7 overall with a 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference but got outgained by -28 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. It was the decline of the production on offense that may have done Lester in despite his 37-32 record in his six seasons with the program. The Broncos ranked 124th in the nation by averaging only 301.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They also ranked 118th in the FBS by scoring 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and they scored 21 points or less in nine of their 12 games. Taylor was Louisville’s offensive coordinator last year but he may need some time to rebuild this offense since the quarterback room again features second-year freshman Treyson Bourguet and redshirt sophomore Jack Salopek. The offense completed only 49.9% of their passes last year. The coaching change led to an exodus of players leaving the program in the transfer portal including 1000-yard running back Sean Tyler and leading receiver Corey Crooms who both joined former Western Michigan head coach P.J. Fleck at Minnesota. Linebacker Ryan Selig also left for Minnesota -- leaving the defense with only two returning starters and just three of the 12 players that logged in 250 or more snaps last year.
WISCONSIN: Luke Fickell takes over as head coach after posting a 57-17 record at Cincinnati which included an appearance in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator has eight starters back on defense from a group that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game. That side of the ball should remain excellent. The concern is on the other side of the line of scrimmage after the Badgers only generated 363.8 total YPG, ranking 90th in the FBS. Wisconsin has a talented running back returning in junior Braelon Allen who rushed for 1242 yards last year. But quarterback play was lacking in previous head coach Paul Chryst’s tenure. Fickell addressed that issue by bringing in sixth-year senior Tanner Mordecai from SMU. With 24 career starts under his belt, Mordecai has passed for 7152 yards with 72 touchdown passes in the last two seasons. Fickell also tapped former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the offense — but I have questions if installing his up-tempo Air Raid is a good fit. The Badgers’ culture has emphasized physicality and defense in the past. Trying to replicate a Big 12 offense in the chilly Madison, Wisconsin weather may have drawbacks. And Mordecai is not nearly as mobile as someone like Drake Maye who was the last quarterback Longo coached two years ago.
Best of luck — Frank.
