by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Aug 31, 2023For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Part One focused on the 14 FBS teams that competed in Week 0. Part Two continues with the FBS teams that debut on Thursday, August 31st, and Friday, September 1st.
KENT STATE: Just how much of a drop will the Golden Flashes endure with only four starters returning from a 5-7 team from last season? The offense has been completely gutted as they lost all 11 starters. The defense lost 10 of the top 16 in their rotation last year. While many Power-Five programs poach from the Mid-American Conference, they were hit the hardest with 18 players transferring away — and they lost their head coach Sean Lewis who decided the offensive coordinator job at Colorado was a better gig. First-year head coach Kenny Burns is trying his best to find players in the portal for a team that outgained their conference opponents by +18.0 net YPG last season (with a 4-4 record). Perhaps returning production numbers should be obsolete in the transfer portal era, but it sure seems ominous that the Golden Flashes return only 19% of their production on offense and 6% of their production on defense.
CENTRAL FLORIDA: Can the Knights stay competitive with the elite teams in the Big 12? Third-year head coach Gus Malzahn continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal for the Knights as they enter this Power-Five conference this season. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team that finished 9-5 after a 30-13 loss to Duke in the Military Bowl. They have a former Power-Five conference quarterback in John Rhys Plumlee (previously transferred from Ole Miss) who should be back to full health after battling with injuries last season for the Knights. But this team has also lost several important starters to the transfer portal as well, making the chemistry of this new group a question.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Will the Wolfpack pass the ball as much as the 2021 Virginia team that also had Brennan Armstrong at quarterback and Robert Onae as the offensive coordinator? Eleventh-year head coach Dave Doeren picked up Armstrong in the transfer portal from Virginia and reunited the Cavaliers three-year captain with his offensive coordinator in his freshman and sophomore seasons before Onae moved to Syracuse for one season last year. Two years ago, Virginia scored 34.6 PPG and generated 514 YPG. But Doeren has tended to prefer more balance on offense in the past to help complement the Wolfpack defense that has ranked 19th and 21st in Total Yardage in the last two seasons.
CONNECTICUT: Can head coach Jim Mora continue to defy expectations in his second year with the Huskies? At first glance, bettors will identify that four of their six victories came against weak opponents: Central Connecticut State, FIU, Boston College, and UMass. The Huskies got outgained by -77 YPG despite their 6-7 record — and they only gained more than 5.3 Yards-Per-Play in three of their 13 contests. But 17 starters return from this team that should improve in the former Atlanta Falcons’ coach's second season — and they added plenty of transfers so the talent base is better with another year of development.
NEBRASKA: Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers have a 3-16 record in the last three seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now first-year head coach Matt Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan.
MINNESOTA: P.J. Fleck has established a great culture with the Golden Gophers as he begins his seventh year as the head coach of the program — but does he have enough high-end talent that fits in with his vision? He has assembled a roster that can go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights regarding size — but the question remains regarding the overall athleticism of the team. They ranked 113th in the FBS in sacks last year — and they are thin at cornerback this season while banking on the transfer portal. The floor for pretty high for this group that has 13 starters back from their 9-4 team that beat Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl — but how high can the ceiling be?
FLORIDA: How far has the talent level fallen after second-year head coach Billy Napier tries to undo the damage in recruiting the program endured in the five seasons when Dan Mullen was running the program? The talent on defense has not been the same for years. Florida ranked 96th in the nation by allowing 411.0 total YPG — and they allowed 30 or more points in six of their losses. They lost their top five tacklers from last season as well. The Gators finished last season on a three-game losing streak. They lost several players to the NFL including quarterback Anthony Richardson. Napier brought in senior Graham Mertz from Wisconsin to be his starting quarterback. The reports were that he was shaky in the spring — and he is playing behind an offensive line that lost four starters to either the NFL or the transfer portal. The wide receiving unit lost three of their top four players from last season.
UTAH: Can sixth-year senior quarterback Cameron Rising regain his form after suffering a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl? He left the game with the score tied at 14-14 with Penn State — but the Nittany Lions outscored the Utes by a 21-7 margin the rest of the way for their 35-21 victory. The two-time reigning Pac-12 champions have a loaded roster once again with 16 starters back. The defense returns nine starters and the tenth most net production in the country from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by allowing only 21.4 Points-Per-Game and 334.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Utes have 12 of the 17 defensive players who logged-in at least 200 snaps last year. But to hang with the dynamic offenses of the top-tier Pac-12 opponents, this team probably needs Rising at full strength.
MIAMI (OH): Can fifth-year QB Brett Gabbert regain his form of 2021? He only started four games last year after suffering a broken collarbone to his non-throwing shoulder in the season opener. The RedHawks ranked 112th and 121st in the nation last year by scoring 20.2 PPG and averaging 305.6 YPG. They ranked 117th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. Two years ago, Gabbert passed for 2648 yards with 26 touchdown passes and just six interceptions with the RedHawks scoring 28.9 PPG and averaging 423.1 YPG. On the other side of the ball, this could be the best defense in head coach Chuck Martin’s ten years with the program. The RedHawks return nine starters, 11 of the 14 players with at least 300 snaps last year, and 17 of their top 20 tacklers from the group that allowed only 22.6 PPG, ranking 34th in the nation.
MIAMI (FL): Should second-year head coach Mario Cristobal be commended for hiring seven new assistant coaches including both a new offensive and defensive coordinator — or should he be criticized for the numerous hires last year that did not work out? Cristobal returned to the Hurricanes where he was a starting offensive lineman in the Jimmy Johnson/Dennis Erickson glory days to much fanfare last season after signing a ten-year, $80 million contract. But the team finished only 5-7 with a 3-5 record in the ACC with those conference opponents outgaining them by 68 YPG. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and defensive coordinator Kevin Steele had good reputations entering their jobs last year — now Cristobal is selling the narrative that they were the problem. Cristobal is recruiting well — but talent has not really been the problem for this program in the last decade or so (especially under head coach Mark Richt). The Hurricanes are 1-10 in bowl games since 2006 — and that cannot be blamed on last year’s assistant coaches.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Was their disappointing 4-8 season last year a fluke — or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program? This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters return on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense.
MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans thrived by using the transfer portal in their 11-2 season two years ago — but are they now losing in the transfer window? The concern about relying on transfer players as opposed to original recruits who are brought up in the system is that the short-term fix may sacrifice the value of culture. Fourth-year head coach Mel Tucker watched his starting quarterback Payton Thorne and his top wide receiver Keon Coleman transfer out of the program after spring practice. The culture that is being nurtured in East Lansing has to be questioned under the leadership of the guy who spurned Colorado in the February after his first season there — and who was able to coax the Michigan State administration to grant him a 10-year, $95 million contract after that 11-2 campaign in 2021. Tucker brought in another 15 transfers this season, but these may simply be retreads of players who failed to succeed at other programs. Tucker only has a 23-21 record as a head coach — take away the ’21 season (and striking gold with the Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III in the transfer portal) and his Spartans are just 7-12. And by the way, his team started a riot in the tunnel against Michigan players after their 29-7 loss last October. Culture …
LOUISVILLE: How close can the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense? Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returns to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He will install his version of an Air Raid attack — and he has brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaces NFL players on all three levels.
GEORGIA TECH: The Yellow Jackets had a 4-4 record after Brent Key took over as the interim head coach last season — Was this a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? The team seemed to play harder under Key while committing fewer mental mistakes. However, for a program that has always been challenged with keeping up with recruiting given the high academic standards of the university, is Key the right fit for the ever-evolving college football landscape dominated by NIL and the transfer portal? The fundamental problems for this program — that hiring Collins away from Temple was supposed to address as he moved away from the spread triple option that defined the successful 11-year Paul Johnson era — remain. The four victories with Key as the interim coach were by 14 combined points — and their four losses under Key were by a combined 76 points. The Yellow Jackets' 4-4 conference record was betrayed by them getting outgained by -62 YPG against those eight ACC opponents.
STANFORD: What are the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw? Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9.
Best of luck -- Frank.
To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Part One focused on the 14 FBS teams that competed in Week 0. Part Two continues with the FBS teams that debut on Thursday, August 31st, and Friday, September 1st.
KENT STATE: Just how much of a drop will the Golden Flashes endure with only four starters returning from a 5-7 team from last season? The offense has been completely gutted as they lost all 11 starters. The defense lost 10 of the top 16 in their rotation last year. While many Power-Five programs poach from the Mid-American Conference, they were hit the hardest with 18 players transferring away — and they lost their head coach Sean Lewis who decided the offensive coordinator job at Colorado was a better gig. First-year head coach Kenny Burns is trying his best to find players in the portal for a team that outgained their conference opponents by +18.0 net YPG last season (with a 4-4 record). Perhaps returning production numbers should be obsolete in the transfer portal era, but it sure seems ominous that the Golden Flashes return only 19% of their production on offense and 6% of their production on defense.
CENTRAL FLORIDA: Can the Knights stay competitive with the elite teams in the Big 12? Third-year head coach Gus Malzahn continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal for the Knights as they enter this Power-Five conference this season. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team that finished 9-5 after a 30-13 loss to Duke in the Military Bowl. They have a former Power-Five conference quarterback in John Rhys Plumlee (previously transferred from Ole Miss) who should be back to full health after battling with injuries last season for the Knights. But this team has also lost several important starters to the transfer portal as well, making the chemistry of this new group a question.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Will the Wolfpack pass the ball as much as the 2021 Virginia team that also had Brennan Armstrong at quarterback and Robert Onae as the offensive coordinator? Eleventh-year head coach Dave Doeren picked up Armstrong in the transfer portal from Virginia and reunited the Cavaliers three-year captain with his offensive coordinator in his freshman and sophomore seasons before Onae moved to Syracuse for one season last year. Two years ago, Virginia scored 34.6 PPG and generated 514 YPG. But Doeren has tended to prefer more balance on offense in the past to help complement the Wolfpack defense that has ranked 19th and 21st in Total Yardage in the last two seasons.
CONNECTICUT: Can head coach Jim Mora continue to defy expectations in his second year with the Huskies? At first glance, bettors will identify that four of their six victories came against weak opponents: Central Connecticut State, FIU, Boston College, and UMass. The Huskies got outgained by -77 YPG despite their 6-7 record — and they only gained more than 5.3 Yards-Per-Play in three of their 13 contests. But 17 starters return from this team that should improve in the former Atlanta Falcons’ coach's second season — and they added plenty of transfers so the talent base is better with another year of development.
NEBRASKA: Was Nebraska simply snakebit with bad luck under previous head coach Scott Frost — or was the continued descent of this proud program the product of the slow decline in talent on the roster? The Cornhuskers have a 3-16 record in the last three seasons in games decided by one scoring possession. Frost deserves much of the blame for that ineptitude to pull out close games — and his coaching staff did not do a good job in developing NFL talent. They got outgained by 73 YPG in the Big Ten last season. But now first-year head coach Matt Rhule is importing his culture from Temple and Baylor that did not succeed with the Carolina Panthers — and this is a program where legendary head coach Tom Osborne casts a long shadow. Recruiting is way down in Lincoln these days — and Rhule is attempting to win the transfer portal battles which was Frost’s strategy the last few seasons. Perhaps the NIL culture that Rhule is trying to establish with the alumni base is the appropriate response, but that is a long-term plan.
MINNESOTA: P.J. Fleck has established a great culture with the Golden Gophers as he begins his seventh year as the head coach of the program — but does he have enough high-end talent that fits in with his vision? He has assembled a roster that can go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights regarding size — but the question remains regarding the overall athleticism of the team. They ranked 113th in the FBS in sacks last year — and they are thin at cornerback this season while banking on the transfer portal. The floor for pretty high for this group that has 13 starters back from their 9-4 team that beat Syracuse in the Pinstripe Bowl — but how high can the ceiling be?
FLORIDA: How far has the talent level fallen after second-year head coach Billy Napier tries to undo the damage in recruiting the program endured in the five seasons when Dan Mullen was running the program? The talent on defense has not been the same for years. Florida ranked 96th in the nation by allowing 411.0 total YPG — and they allowed 30 or more points in six of their losses. They lost their top five tacklers from last season as well. The Gators finished last season on a three-game losing streak. They lost several players to the NFL including quarterback Anthony Richardson. Napier brought in senior Graham Mertz from Wisconsin to be his starting quarterback. The reports were that he was shaky in the spring — and he is playing behind an offensive line that lost four starters to either the NFL or the transfer portal. The wide receiving unit lost three of their top four players from last season.
UTAH: Can sixth-year senior quarterback Cameron Rising regain his form after suffering a torn ACL in the Rose Bowl? He left the game with the score tied at 14-14 with Penn State — but the Nittany Lions outscored the Utes by a 21-7 margin the rest of the way for their 35-21 victory. The two-time reigning Pac-12 champions have a loaded roster once again with 16 starters back. The defense returns nine starters and the tenth most net production in the country from a unit that ranked 26th in the nation by allowing only 21.4 Points-Per-Game and 334.1 total Yards-Per-Game. The Utes have 12 of the 17 defensive players who logged-in at least 200 snaps last year. But to hang with the dynamic offenses of the top-tier Pac-12 opponents, this team probably needs Rising at full strength.
MIAMI (OH): Can fifth-year QB Brett Gabbert regain his form of 2021? He only started four games last year after suffering a broken collarbone to his non-throwing shoulder in the season opener. The RedHawks ranked 112th and 121st in the nation last year by scoring 20.2 PPG and averaging 305.6 YPG. They ranked 117th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. Two years ago, Gabbert passed for 2648 yards with 26 touchdown passes and just six interceptions with the RedHawks scoring 28.9 PPG and averaging 423.1 YPG. On the other side of the ball, this could be the best defense in head coach Chuck Martin’s ten years with the program. The RedHawks return nine starters, 11 of the 14 players with at least 300 snaps last year, and 17 of their top 20 tacklers from the group that allowed only 22.6 PPG, ranking 34th in the nation.
MIAMI (FL): Should second-year head coach Mario Cristobal be commended for hiring seven new assistant coaches including both a new offensive and defensive coordinator — or should he be criticized for the numerous hires last year that did not work out? Cristobal returned to the Hurricanes where he was a starting offensive lineman in the Jimmy Johnson/Dennis Erickson glory days to much fanfare last season after signing a ten-year, $80 million contract. But the team finished only 5-7 with a 3-5 record in the ACC with those conference opponents outgaining them by 68 YPG. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis and defensive coordinator Kevin Steele had good reputations entering their jobs last year — now Cristobal is selling the narrative that they were the problem. Cristobal is recruiting well — but talent has not really been the problem for this program in the last decade or so (especially under head coach Mark Richt). The Hurricanes are 1-10 in bowl games since 2006 — and that cannot be blamed on last year’s assistant coaches.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Was their disappointing 4-8 season last year a fluke — or a harbinger of a slide in the Chippewas program? This team finished 9-4 in 2021 — and they had a 26-13 record in the first three seasons under head coach Jim McElwain before the dip last year. The Chippewas were only outgained by -7.1 YPG but suffered three upset losses while ranking second in the FBS with a -18 net turnover margin. Nine starters return on defense from a group whose 11 of 18 players who were on the field for 150 or more snaps were freshmen or sophomores. But McElwain has questions at quarterback and seems to lack playmakers on offense.
MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans thrived by using the transfer portal in their 11-2 season two years ago — but are they now losing in the transfer window? The concern about relying on transfer players as opposed to original recruits who are brought up in the system is that the short-term fix may sacrifice the value of culture. Fourth-year head coach Mel Tucker watched his starting quarterback Payton Thorne and his top wide receiver Keon Coleman transfer out of the program after spring practice. The culture that is being nurtured in East Lansing has to be questioned under the leadership of the guy who spurned Colorado in the February after his first season there — and who was able to coax the Michigan State administration to grant him a 10-year, $95 million contract after that 11-2 campaign in 2021. Tucker brought in another 15 transfers this season, but these may simply be retreads of players who failed to succeed at other programs. Tucker only has a 23-21 record as a head coach — take away the ’21 season (and striking gold with the Wake Forest running back Kenneth Walker III in the transfer portal) and his Spartans are just 7-12. And by the way, his team started a riot in the tunnel against Michigan players after their 29-7 loss last October. Culture …
LOUISVILLE: How close can the Cardinals come to replicating the recent success of the Purdue offense? Former quarterback Jeff Brohm returns to his alma mater after serving as the head coach of the Boilermakers for five seasons and leading them to the Big Ten Championship Game last season. He will install his version of an Air Raid attack — and he has brought in his former QB Jack Plummer to operate the offense after passing for 6500 yards in his career which includes four years at Purdue. But the senior graduate transfer left the Purdue program a year ago for California because he lost the starting QB job to Aidan O’Connell — and the Cardinals lost three of their top four receivers from last season. Plummer had 19 Big Time throws for the Golden Bears last season — but he also had 18 turnover-worthy plays. Brohm has worked the transfer portal by bringing in over 25 new players — but most of these players come from non-Power Five conference programs. The defense replaces NFL players on all three levels.
GEORGIA TECH: The Yellow Jackets had a 4-4 record after Brent Key took over as the interim head coach last season — Was this a product of a genuine turnaround of the program or just the proverbial dead cat bounce after the end of the Geoff Collins four-era era with the program? The team seemed to play harder under Key while committing fewer mental mistakes. However, for a program that has always been challenged with keeping up with recruiting given the high academic standards of the university, is Key the right fit for the ever-evolving college football landscape dominated by NIL and the transfer portal? The fundamental problems for this program — that hiring Collins away from Temple was supposed to address as he moved away from the spread triple option that defined the successful 11-year Paul Johnson era — remain. The four victories with Key as the interim coach were by 14 combined points — and their four losses under Key were by a combined 76 points. The Yellow Jackets' 4-4 conference record was betrayed by them getting outgained by -62 YPG against those eight ACC opponents.
STANFORD: What are the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw? Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9.
Best of luck -- Frank.
