by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, October 6, 2024
Venue: Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Browns +3.5, Commanders -3.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Browns +3, Commanders -3; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Browns +3.5, Commanders -3.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Cleveland Browns: 1-3 (3rd place, AFC North)
Washington Commanders: 3-1 (1st place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
Cleveland Browns: lost their last game on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders 20-16.
Washington Commanders: won their last game on the road against the Arizona Cardinals 42-14.
Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders Preview and Analysis
The Browns are entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders 20-16. Deshaun Watson was the starting QB and he completed 24/32 passes for 176 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Jerome Ford led the team in rushing yards with 58. Jerry Jeudy led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Myles Garrett led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Commanders are entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Arizona Cardinals 42-14. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 26/30 passes for 233 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 101 and 1 TD. Olamide Zaccheaus led the receivers with 85 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Bobby Wagner led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Dorance Armstrong led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Browns vs Commanders Prediction
The current betting odds have the Commanders listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Commanders have looked really good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall. They lost their season opener to the Buccaneers, but they have won 3 games in a row since then. Jayden Daniels has been having a great rookie season to start his career and the offense has been rolling in every game. Meanwhile, the Browns haven't looked good in their games this season with their 1-3 record overall. They are coming off another loss in their last one, losing to the Raiders who were missing 2 of their best players in that game, and they have had the complete opposite of the Commanders with a terrible offense. Watson has struggled to get going in their games, and even the defense has taken a step back from the dominant Cleveland defense seen in previous years. The Commanders just pulled off 2 big upset wins on the road and now they are coming back home with a chance to beat up on a bad Browns team and stay in the lead for the NFC East. The best way to place a bet here is on the Commanders to cover the spread in this game.
Browns Commanders Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 6, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Commanders 31 Browns 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Cleveland Browns: 11-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses. 6-3 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 18-10 ATS in games played on a grass field. 7-4 UNDER in non-conference games. 6-2 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 5-1 UNDER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 130 rushing yards/game or more.
Washington Commanders: 5-11 ATS in home games. 2-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 4-7 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 7-3 UNDER as a favorite. 6-2 UNDER vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game. 7-3 UNDER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more.
Key Injuries
Cleveland Browns: M. Ford (CB) Injured - Knee. J. Bitonio (G) Injured - Knee. J. Hicks (LB) Questionable - Ribs. J. Hudson (T) Injured - Shoulder. J. Ford (RB) Injured - Knee. J. Cohen (G) Injured - Back. D. Tomlinson (DT) Injured - Thigh. P. Strong (RB) Out - Hamstring. D. Jones (T) Injured - Knee. M. Garrett (DE) Injured - Foot. D. Njoku (TE) Out - Ankle. D. Ward (CB) Injured - Shoulder. J. Conklin (T) Out - Hamstring. J. Jeudy (WR) Injured - Knee. J. Wills (T) Out - Knee. J. Owusu-Koramoah (LB) Injured - Hand. A. Wright (DE) Injured - Triceps.
Washington Commanders: J. Crowder (WR) Out - Calf. A. Ekeler (RB) Out - Concussion. S. Cosmi (G) Injured - Achillees. B. St-Juste (CB) Injured - Chest. J. Newton (DT) Injured - Foot. C. Ferrell (DE) Out - Knee. Q. Martin (DB) Injured - Elbow. E. Forbes (CB) Injured - Thumb. Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - Rest.
Notable Quotes
“We can play way better.” - Kevin Stefanski after his team’s loss against the Raiders in their last game.
“You would have never known there was a history here. Stayed steady all the way through." - Dan Quinn after his team’s win against the Cardinals in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Cleveland Browns
WR Cooper, Amari
WR Jeudy, Jerry
WR Moore, Elijah
TE Akins, Jordan
QB Watson, Deshaun
RB Ford, Jerome
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Brown, Dyami
WR McCaffrey, Luke
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Daniels, Jayden
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
Statistical Leaders
Cleveland Browns
Passing: D. Watson (727)
Rushing: J. Ford (203)
Receiving: J. Jeudy (197)
Touchdowns: A. Cooper (2)
Washington Commanders
Passing: J. Daniels (897)
Rushing: B. Robinson (307)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (191)
Touchdowns: J. Daniels (4)
Coaches:
Cleveland Browns: Kevin Stefanski (5th season)
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
