by AAA Sports
Wednesday, Mar 22, 2023The Nascar season is five races in. Chevrolet has dominated the early season, winning 4 of the first 5 races. We’ve seen super speedways, intermediate tracks, and short tracks. Circuit of the Americas will be the first road course of the season. Austin, Texas will host the first of 5 road courses this season at the famed Texas Grand Prix, better known as Echo Park Grand Prix. COTA debuted on the Nascar circuit in May of 2021. The inaugural race was a rain-shortened race won by Chase Elliott. Because of Elliott’s leg injury, he will not be participating in the race on March 26th. Last year the Echo Park Grand Prix was won by Ross Chastain. His first ever Cup victory. The rules have changed a bit this season. Road course will have a new package allowing less downforce. Nascar also removed the cautions at the end of stages.
Circuit of the Americas is a 3.14-mile road course with 20 turns and elevation. This asphalt track is wide, which should help see more passing than we’ve seen in the previous races this season. This race is filled with big names including the 2009 Formula 1 World Champion Jenson Button. Button has signed on for three races this season. Another former F1 world champion participating in this race is Kimi Raikkonen. Raikkonen raced in Watkins Glen last season with little success. Jordan Taylor will be in the 9 car for injured Chase Elliott. Taylor is a two-time INSA champion. This race will be Taylor’s first in the Cup series. Indy car driver Conor Daly who raced in the Daytona 500 this season will make another appearance at COTA. We’ll also be seeing 7-time Cup champion Jimmie Johnson in this race. This will be Johnson’s second race of the season finishing P31 at the Daytona 500. These drivers may see success at COTA, but it will be a stretch to see them get the checkered flag.
We don’t see the usual drivers at the top of the board on this road course like Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano. Kyle Larson is the favorite this weekend. Larson has 4 road course victories in his Cup series career. His last road course win was last August at Watkins Glen. Over the past 2 seasons, Larson has a 9.8 average finish. In 6 road courses, he has 1 win with 2 top 5s. Larson has one DNF to go with that average. Kyle Larson always has a fast car and knows how to get around these types of tracks. +650 may not be the best price, but if he qualifies well on Saturday this line will move lower.
Michael McDowell is a dark horse. McDowell was a top 5 road course driver last season. He had a costly penalty here last season for cutting through the course. In the past two seasons, McDowell in 6 races at road courses has 1 top 5 to pair with 4 top 10s. McDowell is looking to improve this season with his road program. I certainly think that is attainable. A top 5 for McDowell is +425, so we’re getting plenty of value here. If you aren’t comfortable taking him for Top 5 he is getting a generous line at Top 10 price at +155.
Nascar betting is about finding value. Be sure to shop for the best number. Practice good bankroll management. Always bet responsibly.
Circuit of the Americas is a 3.14-mile road course with 20 turns and elevation. This asphalt track is wide, which should help see more passing than we’ve seen in the previous races this season. This race is filled with big names including the 2009 Formula 1 World Champion Jenson Button. Button has signed on for three races this season. Another former F1 world champion participating in this race is Kimi Raikkonen. Raikkonen raced in Watkins Glen last season with little success. Jordan Taylor will be in the 9 car for injured Chase Elliott. Taylor is a two-time INSA champion. This race will be Taylor’s first in the Cup series. Indy car driver Conor Daly who raced in the Daytona 500 this season will make another appearance at COTA. We’ll also be seeing 7-time Cup champion Jimmie Johnson in this race. This will be Johnson’s second race of the season finishing P31 at the Daytona 500. These drivers may see success at COTA, but it will be a stretch to see them get the checkered flag.
We don’t see the usual drivers at the top of the board on this road course like Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano. Kyle Larson is the favorite this weekend. Larson has 4 road course victories in his Cup series career. His last road course win was last August at Watkins Glen. Over the past 2 seasons, Larson has a 9.8 average finish. In 6 road courses, he has 1 win with 2 top 5s. Larson has one DNF to go with that average. Kyle Larson always has a fast car and knows how to get around these types of tracks. +650 may not be the best price, but if he qualifies well on Saturday this line will move lower.
Michael McDowell is a dark horse. McDowell was a top 5 road course driver last season. He had a costly penalty here last season for cutting through the course. In the past two seasons, McDowell in 6 races at road courses has 1 top 5 to pair with 4 top 10s. McDowell is looking to improve this season with his road program. I certainly think that is attainable. A top 5 for McDowell is +425, so we’re getting plenty of value here. If you aren’t comfortable taking him for Top 5 he is getting a generous line at Top 10 price at +155.
Nascar betting is about finding value. Be sure to shop for the best number. Practice good bankroll management. Always bet responsibly.
