by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, May 31, 2022
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Where to watch: Bally Sports Ohio, NESN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: NL
BetMGM: NL
Caesars: Red Sox -145, Reds +125
Season record
Reds: 16-31
Red Sox: 23-26
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Reds - Red Sox preview and analysis
It’s the battle of the red teams where one is somehow finding ways to win while being absolute garbage, and the other is doing some good things as they were expected to do but still finds themselves digging out of one hell of a hole they dug themselves to begin the season.
But when it comes to comparing the situations between the Cincinnati Reds and Boston Red Sox, it isn’t just about understanding these two teams are underperforming, how one of them once had the worst record in baseball and how one is fourth place in the AL East. But they are both finding ways to be miserable in their own ways.
Take the Reds for example. Sure, a 16-31 record isn’t the greatest. But it wasn’t that long ago that the Reds were, in fact, at the basement of baseball but had since ripped off a winning streak that included two dominant wins over the San Francisco Giants over the weekend, but now they might not be as bad as we anticipated.
Sure, they lost 6-4 on Sunday at home to the Giants, but any time they can take a series against one of the considered best teams in the National League, that’s cause for a parade in downtown Cincinnati right now.
Tyler Mahle threw 6.2 scoreless innings before the Reds bullpen essentially gave it away toward the end. He didn’t even allow a hit until there were two outs in the top of the seventh. That’s how much Cincy’s struggling ace has been to this point.
"It is disappointing," Reds manager David Bell said. "You feel like you’re close and it gets away from you, but every team goes through it. We’ve been through it many times. The key is to bounce back, so I’m very confident we can do that."
But for a team that lost so much this past offseason and to find a way to win has been one of the more remarkable turnarounds this early into the season. This isn’t to say the Reds will find a way to dominate and get back in the NL Central race, but finding ways to win for even this group is cause for celebration given how the year started.
“The last 3-4 days, or whatever it was, were not good," Mahle said. "I threw a terrible bullpen and probably threw like 50 pitches and they were not good. I was working on my slider and I maybe threw one good one in the bullpen. Everything else was fine but it was pretty frustrating. Then to come out here, that was probably my best pitch today so that was kind of funny.”
But if you’re the Reds, you look at your opponent starting Tuesday and realize it could be a whole lot worse. The Red Sox lost three of five to the Baltimore Orioles at home last week in a stretch that included a doubleheader on Saturday. The series capped off a 10-0 loss on Monday in what the Orioles have proven to be a year where they aren’t a fluke despite being in last place.
“I think from the get-go fastball command wasn’t there and the breaking ball didn’t play today,” said Red Sox manager Alex Cora after starter Rich Hill went just four innings and gave up six earned runs.
The Red Sox have not been all that great this season, and Monday was just the latest of that with just four hits while their Baltimore counterparts gave up 10 runs on 14 hits and scoring every other inning.
Prediction
I don’t think the Red Sox are going to have too much trouble with the Reds this week, but I do find it concerning in the ways they lost to the Orioles, allowing double-digit runs twice with not a lot of response from them. If a confident Reds team can swing the bat well, the Red Sox might be in trouble. It’ll be up to Michael Wacha to make something happen, and I believe he will. Red Sox win 6-3
Betting trends
Reds are 30-50 against AL East teams since 1997.
Reds are 24-35 after a loss by two runs or less in the past three seasons.
Red Sox are 27-15 in inter-league games over the past three seasons.
Projected lineup
Reds:
Nick Senzel (R) CF
Tyler Naquin (L) RF
Tyler Stephenson (R) DH
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Brandon Drury (R) 2B
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
Albert Almora Jr. (R) LF
Aramis Garcia (R) C
SP - Luis Castillo
Red Sox:
nrique Hernandez (R) CF
Rafael Devers (L) 3B
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Alex Verdugo (L) LF
Trevor Story (R) 2B
Franchy Cordero (L) 1B
Christian Vazquez (R) C
Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) RF
SP - Michael Wacha
Statistical leaders
Reds:
Batting average: Kyle Farmer – .261
Hits: Kyle Farmer – 37
Home runs: Brandon Drury – 8
RBI: Brandon Drury – 26
Wins: Five tied – 2
Saves: Two tied – 3
ERA: Tyler Mahle – 5.53
Red Sox:
Batting average: J.D. Martinez – .369
Hits: Rafael Devers – 70
Home runs: Rafael Devers – 11
RBI: Trevor Story – 37
Wins: Nick Pivetta – 4
Saves: Two tied – 2
ERA: Nathan Eovaldi – 3.77
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
