by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Apr 16, 2022
Eastern Conference, First Round -- Game 1
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Where to watch: TNT
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bucks -10
BetMGM: Bucks -9.5
Caesars: Bucks -10
Season record
No. 6 Bulls: 46-36
No. 3 Bucks: 51-31
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Bulls - Bucks preview and analysis
If you were to ask a common basketball fan back in December or January what you would think about the prospects of the Chicago Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks facing off in the playoffs, the likely response you’d get would be, “oh, that’ll be a fun Eastern Conference Finals matchup.”
Because for the first few months this season, it looked like we would be on a collision course of that happening. The Bulls were playing as one of the top teams in the league with an MVP candidate in DeMar DeRozan, and it appeared the Bulls put together a team that could not only defend well, but score a ton of points.
Fast forward to now, and the Bulls did slide down the stretch. Yet DeRozan was still a great 1-2 punch with Zach LaVine but Lonzo Ball is out for the rest of the year with a knee injury and their best perimeter defender, who would’ve been a great matchup on Khris Middleton, is now out.
But it’s still DeMar against Giannis Antetokounmpo in this matchup as the 3-6 battle in the Eastern Conference, and that’s a fair first challenge for the reigning NBA champions in the hopes of defending their title.
This is also a tale of two different teams coming down the stretch. The Bulls closed the season losing four of five, while the Bucks won three of four with the lone loss coming with every starter on the bench.
The East is wide open to the point where you could legitimately make a case 1-6 on why those teams would win a championship. I think the Bulls have taken a major hit because of the injuries, but DeRozan has been incredible after a career-high 27.9 points this season. Playoff DeMar hasn’t been unlocked since his Toronto days. This could be fun.
"We have to maintain a high level of competitive fight. They're champions for a reason," coach Billy Donovan said. "They're battle-tested."
Personnel wise, however, this is going to be an interesting series from the standpoint that the Chicago front court is going to have its hands full with Giannis. Not that the combination of Patrick Williams and Nikola Vucevic won’t try their best, but we’re talking about the reigning Finals MVP that dropped a 50 piece to clinch a championship. They’re going to get that guy.
The Bulls will have a formidable replacement in Ball with Ayo Dosunmu, who is likely headed for the All-Rookie team. Dosunmu, who has come out of nowhere to be a great addition for the Bulls, dropped 26 points in 45 minutes in the season finale against the Timberwolves.
Dosunmu is going to be the one tasked with going against Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton, and that will be a matchup nightmare for the rookie unless he can deliver. This is the first time in seemingly forever that the Bucks are fully healthy with Brook Lopez back in the fold.
"It's great to have 82 games in the bank, and we have pretty good health," coach Mike Budenholzer said. "The guys know we have a special group and we have a special opportunity."
Prediction
The Bulls’ defense is going to be tested greatly. It wasn’t that long ago when the Bulls lost by 20 to the Bucks as the regular season ticked down. DeRozan is going to have to be great, but more importantly, that defense is going to need to be at its best. If Giannis gets rolling downhill, the Bulls don’t have a single soul on their roster to stop them. Milwaukee storms to an easy Game 1 win. Bucks by 14
Betting trends
Bulls are 12-21 ATS this season as an underdog, and 8-14 ATS as a road underdog.
Bulls are 51-30 ATS the past three seasons following a non-conference game.
Bucks are 34-30 ATS this season as a favorite.
Bucks are 28-14 ATS the past three seasons against division opponents.
Bucks are 6-16 ATS since 1996 in the first game of a playoff series.
Projected starting lineup
Bulls:
PG: Ayo Dosunmu
SG: Alex Caruso
SF: Zach LaVine
PF: DeMar DeRozan
C: Nikola Vucevic
Bucks:
PG: Jrue Holiday
SG: Wesley Matthews
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez
Key injuries
Bulls: Lonzo Ball (knee, out)
Bucks: None
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
