The Champions League qualifiers have concluded and the groups have been set with the 1st round of the group stage kicking off on September 19. Last season Manchester City finally won the Champions League Title that has eluded them for so many years and they come into this season as the favorite to win it all, but this year it will be a lot more competitive with a lot of good teams in the competition. Now it is time to see who has the best chance at making a deep run and taking home the title this season.
To Win Outright
Manchester City +200: Man City is coming into this group stage as the favorites to win the whole tournament after winning the Champions League Title last season along with the Premier League and FA Cup. They are by far the best team in Europe but they did lose some of their depth in the transfer window and this is the competition where those losses will show as we get deeper in. Losing Mahrez and Gundoğan were both big losses to their depth and they did not really bring in any strong replacements as they still have a lot of talent. They have already been struggling in some of their matches to start the season as well and right now they are a weaker team than they were just a few months ago. Man City still has a very good team but considering their losses in the transfer window as well as some of the other teams in the competition, the value is not with them to win the UCL Title in B2B years.
Bayern Munich +550: Bayern is coming into this group stage as the next best team to win the Champions League Title according to the books. Bayern made some big moves last year that did not pan out well for them as they lost striker Robert Lewandowski and replaced him with an injury prone Sadio Mane who was not a proper replacement for Lewandowski. Now they have made a splash again in the summer transfer window by inking Harry Kane to a 4 year deal and he is a true replacement for the striker they lost a year ago. Bayern even struggled to win the Bundesliga Title last season but they have come out on fire this year with their new striker and now they have the tools to make a deep run in this tournament. Bayern has always had a problem on defense in recent years but their new coach Tuchel is a great defensive mind and they have the talent on defense to be good, they just need Tuchel to whip their defense into shape like he did with Chelsea years ago. Their defense will improve under Tuchel as the season goes on and now they have a more potent attack with a good flow to it unlike what they have had in previous years. Bayern is going to be a real threat in this competition and there is a lot of value at this price for them to win the whole competition.
Real Madrid +800: Real Madrid is coming into this season as the next team listed to win this tournament according to the books. Real Madrid was the Champions League champion as well as the La Liga champion just 2 years ago but last year was a very bad season by their standards as they came close in both of those competitions but came up short in the end. They have also retooled this season in the transfer window by saying goodbye to long time striker Karim Benzema and bringing in some fresh young talent to go along with their very experienced midfield. They still have most of their talent from last year but now they have added young superstar Jude Bellingham to inject some more youth into that attack while also replacing Benzema's presence with another veteran striker in Joselu. They have added a lot of depth and youth to keep up with the condensed schedule and they have a very dangerous team that will be focused on winning Champions League this year after coming up short last season. There is a lot of value with Real Madrid to win at this price.
Arsenal +1000: Arsenal is coming into this season as the next team listed to win the tournament according to the books. Arsenal was very good last season as they led the Premier League for most of the year but when things came down to the final few weeks of the season, they cracked under the pressure blowing their chance at the Premier League Title while also fizzling out of Europa League. They have added some talent this season with Declan Rice joining the team and he is sure to help out that spotty defense, but they are still lacking the depth they need to make a deep run in this tournament. Arsenal does have a better team this season but they have shown on the big stage that they cannot beat the big names in the Premier League and eventually they will run into a team here that will knock them out. Arsenal is not a Champions League contender this year.
Barcelona +1400: Barcelona is coming into this season as the next team listed to win this tournament according to the books. Barcelona made a lot of moves in the transfer window last season to improve their team and they brought in some big names like Robert Lewandowski as their new striker, but they also lost a lot of the talent they brought in since they overspent and were not able to pay all their players. They put themselves in a position where they could not do much in this summer transfer window. Barcelona absolutely dominated La Liga last year as they won the title and it was not even close, but they also fizzled out in the group stage of Champions League which was a big embarrassment. Their team is not that different from last year though and even though they dominate La Liga, La Liga is not Champions League. They will be more focused on winning UCL this year but they still do not have the talent or the depth and even if they make it out of the group stage this time, they will still fizzle out in the knockouts. Barcelona is not a Champions League contender this year.
Paris Saint-Germain +1600: PSG is coming into this season as the next team listed to win this tournament according to the books. PSG won the Ligue 1 Title last year but they disappointed in Champions League once again. Now they have a very different team with no Messi and now Mbappe has been reunited with his French National teammate Ousmane Dembele. They also picked up the Portuguese wonderkid Gonçalo Ramos who was very impressive at the World Cup. They started off slow in Ligue 1 this season but now they have been gaining steam as their pieces start to click. This new look PSG team has the talent and the depth to make a deep run in this competition. There are better teams in the competition than PSG but with the right path they have the potential to be a very dangerous team and this new look PSG is definitely not a team to sleep on. PSG is not the best option but they do have some value as a dark horse to win this competition.
Manchester United +2000: Man Utd is coming into this season as the next team listed to win this competition according to the books. Man Utd had a much improved season in the Premier League last year but they still only finished in 3rd place and were unable to keep up with some of the better teams in the league. They have made some moves in the transfer window to improve even more this year and they do have a great team as their starters are very good, but their bench is not great and they lack the depth they need to make a deep run in this tournament late in the year. They have also been awful to start the season as they are clearly in disarray and until they start to put everything together playing in better form, there are a lot of teams who could knock them out of this tournament. Man Utd is not a Champions League contender this year.
Newcastle +2500: Newcastle is coming into this game as the next team listed to win this tournament according to the books. Newcastle had a very good season in the Premier League last year as their new influx of cash has instantly made them competitive, finishing last season in 4th place. They have a lot of good quality players in the midfield as well as on defense but their attack can be very streaky at times. They also have some solid starters but they lack a lot of bench depth which they will need as they finished last season in 4th but played in no European competitions. Now they have an extra competition to focus on as well as extra matches to play and it will wear down on this team as the season goes on. Newcastle is not a Champions League contender this year.
Napoli +2500: Napoli is coming into this season as the next team listed to win this tournament according to the books. Napoli had a very good year last season as they won the Serie A Title for the 1st time in over 30 years and they dominated the league as the title race was not even close. They were also very good in Champions League as they made a deep run into the quarter finals before getting eliminated by AC Milan. Napoli did not do much in the transfer window as they were more focused on keeping their talent and once again they have a very good team this year. They are also going to be more focused on Champions League this season since they already won the league last year and they showed they have the team to go deep. Napoli has a lot of value here to win this tournament as a dark horse.
Inter Milan +2500: Inter Milan is coming into this season as the next team listed to win this tournament according to the books. Inter Milan was very good in Serie A last season but they fell short of the title. They also made it all the way to the finals of Champions League which they lost in a close game against Man City. They have a very good defense that can carry them far but they also lost a lot of talent in the transfer window and have a much different team this year. They do not have as much depth now so juggling both competitions will be hard for them late in the year, especially since they are going to be focused on winning the Serie A Title after letting it get out of hand last year. Inter Milan may have made it to the finals last year but they are not going back this season as they are not a Champions League contender this year.
Atletico Madrid +2500: Atletico Madrid is coming into this season as the next team listed to win this tournament according to the books. Atletico Madrid is off to a good start this season in La Liga and they have been dominant since the end of last season when they switched their focus from defense to a more attacking mindset. They have a lot of talent on their team and they have a good attack that can score goals now, but recently their defense has been the issue. They still have a very good defense but they usually allow goals in their matches now which will get them into trouble when they play a much stronger team. Atletico has not had a lot of success in Champions League in recent years either and they are not going to be much of a threat here compared to some of the other teams in the tournament. Atletico Madrid is not a Champions League contender this year.
AC Milan +3300: AC Milan is coming into this season as the next team listed to win this tournament according to the books. AC Milan is a team that lost some talent in the summer transfer window with the departure of key players like Sandro Tonali as well as Brahim Diaz. They did make some moves to replace those players as they brought in Pulisic who has fit in well with AC Milan coming out guns blazing this season. AC Milan seems more focused than ever after going deep into Champions League last year but losing in the semi finals to rival Inter Milan. They are going to be focused on another deep run this year and with the team they have put together this year, they look like one of the more dangerous teams in Italy by far. AC Milan has a lot of value in them to make a deep run and win this tournament this season.
Recommendations
It is going to be a very competitive Champions League season with many teams looking like they have a real shot at winning. With the odds as they are right now, Bayern Munich at +550 and Real Madrid at +800 are the best options for an outright winner with a slight lean to Real Madrid since there is more value considering their recent success in the competition. As for dark horses, PSG at +1600, Napoli at +2500, and AC Milan at +3300 have the most value to be surprises this year with a slight lean to Napoli considering how they went to the quarter finals last year and won the Serie A Title so Champions League will be more of a focus for them this season.