CFP Player Prop Considerations – Texas vs. Washington

Monday’s CFP semifinal between Texas and Washington is expected to be the much higher scoring contest of the two semifinals with a total in the 60s. Which players are likely to make the most of the opportunity? Below is a look at five player prop considerations for the Sugar Bowl to close Monday’s New Year’s Day bowl schedule. 

Michael Penix, Jr. UNDER 313.5 Passing Yards

Michael Penix, Jr. topped 400 yards in each of his three non-conference games to start the season but he averaged just 289 yards per game in Washington’s 10-0 run through the Pac-12. He did get to 319 in the Pac-12 Championship against Oregon but was held to 304 or fewer yards six times in Pac-12 play. Penix completed nearly 66 percent of his passes for the season but was held below 58 percent in four of his final six games despite Washington maintaining its perfect record. Texas allowed 241 passing yards per game but often playing with the lead in the Big XII contributed. Alabama had just 255 passing yards against Texas while Oklahoma had only 285 against Texas for the two best comparison games. 

Quinn Ewers OVER 288.5 Passing Yards

Washington ranked 121st nationally, allowing 263 passing yards per game this season as the Huskies can be described as a bend-but-don’t-break defense. Ewers posted 452 passing yards in the statement win in the Big XII Championship and averaged 287 yards per game, even with an outlier 131-yard performance against Wyoming early in the season. He had 349 yards vs. Alabama and 346 yards vs. Oklahoma as Texas was pass-heavy behind Ewers in the biggest games of the season. 

Dillon Johnson OVER 73.5 Rushing Yards

Sometimes overlooked in Washington’s success, the Huskies leaned on Johnson more and more late in the season. He didn’t have more than 20 carries in any of the team’s first seven games but had 21 or more in four of the final five games, including a 28 carry game for 152 rushing yards in the Pac-12 Championship. Johnson had only three runs longer than 30 yards all season as his total figures haven’t been skewed upward with a few big plays and he has reached 82 or more yards in eight of his past nine games. Texas has an elite run defense allowing just 2.9 yards per carry this season, but Washington will have opportunities to selectively run the ball in this game. Texas was outrushed in their two biggest games against Alabama and Oklahoma this season including allowing 201 rushing yards in the loss to the Sooners. 

Ja’Tavion Sanders UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards

The Texas tight end had eight catches for 105 yards in the Big XII Championship win but he has been held to 37 or fewer yards in six of the past nine games. He did have a big game in the win over Alabama but after having three catches of 44 or more yards in the first three games of the season, his long reception the rest of the way was only 26 yards. Sanders has also been held to two or fewer catches in six different games this season. His blocking will be needed in this game and while a few throws will certainly go his way, big play gains have been uncommon for Sanders in recent weeks. 

Rome Odunze OVER 97.5 Receiving Yards

The favorite target for Penix, Odunze had had at least five catches in 12 of 13 games this season and has had a catch of at least 30 yards in eight different games. He had 16 catches for 230 yards in the two wins over Oregon and has topped 100 yards nine times this season. While he will certainly have the attention of the Texas defense, he will also be the go-to option for Penix under duress as the tallest option in the receiving corps. Odunze will be targeted down the field often, having averaged 17.6 yards per reception this season. If a game state occurs where the underdog Huskies are trailing, Odunze will be the lead option in the hurry-up and could pad his yardage total in the 4th quarter.