by Nelly's Sports
Saturday, Dec 30, 2023Monday’s CFP semifinal between Alabama and Michigan features a spread below a field goal and should be the one of the most watched games in college football history given the stakes and the controversy surrounding Alabama’s inclusion and Michigan’s many headlines this season. Here is a look at six player prop considerations for Monday’s Rose Bowl.
J.J. McCarthy UNDER 189.5 Passing Yards
McCarthy has not topped 148 yards in any of his past four games as the competition stiffened down the stretch. In the wins over Penn State and Ohio State, McCarthy completed a combined total of only 23 passes. After McCarthy allowed two interceptions to be returned for touchdowns in last season’s 51-45 loss to TCU in the CFP semifinal, Michigan is likely going to be cautious in the passing game unless they fall behind significantly. This is also statistically Alabama’s worst run defense per game and per carry since 2019 as Michigan’s game plan will start with the ground attack.
Jalen Milroe UNDER 198.5 Passing Yards
Milroe has averaged only 14 completions per game this season and only once had more than 17 completions in a game. He did top 200 passing yards seven times, but reached only 192 in the SEC Championship against Georgia and that included 57 yards on the 4th quarter touchdown drive that put Alabama up by 10 points with fewer than six minutes remaining. Michigan allowed just over 152 passing yards per game this season and allowing 271 yards to Kyle McCord in the Ohio State game was driven by the game state with Michigan up by double-digits in portions of that contest.
Blake Corum OVER 83.5 Rushing Yards
Alabama’s run defense was not quite at its typical elite level for the season, and while the Tide held Georgia to just 78 rushing yards in the SEC Championship, a 17-7 halftime lead changed Georgia’s approach. The Bulldogs also weren’t as strong in the ground game as the past two seasons. Corum barely reached 1,000 yards rushing this season compared to amassing over 1,400 rushing yards last season, but Michigan kept his carries in check early in the season. Down the stretch in his final three regular season games against quality competition Corum got the ball 76 times and posted 327 rushing yards for an average of 109 yards per game. He had only 52 yards in the Big Ten Championship game but given the shutout result, not much was needed from the offense.
Donovan Edwards UNDER 30.5 Rushing Yards
Edwards has been the change-of-pace back for Michigan and he had huge performances last season filling in against Ohio State, and in the Big Ten Championship against Purdue. He also had 119 yards in the CFP semifinal against TCU with Corum injured. Edwards averaged just 29 yards per game rushing this season and posted only 3.5 yards per carry despite often getting the ball in advantageous unconventional rushing situations. Edwards could have a role in the passing game but likely won’t have many designed runs in this contest.
Jalen Milroe UNDER 33.5 Rushing Yards
Milroe had two 100 yard rushing games this season in big spots against LSU and Auburn but he had just 29 rushing yards against Georgia. Since returning to the starting role Milroe was held below 30 rushing yards in six of 10 games. Sacks are likely to occur in this contest as even if Milroe has a few successful scrambles, his end-game total could be modest with this figure likely a bit elevated from where it should project as the OVER will be a popular look.
Jermaine Burton UNDER 50.5 Receiving Yards
Burton had the most receiving yards on the Alabama team this season at 777, but he had only 35 catches and was a boom-or-bust option. His 9-catch 197-yard game against Texas A&M was an extreme outlier that amount shifts his season figures dramatically as he didn’t have more than four catches in any other game. Burton is a big play threat, but Michigan has allowed just 153 passing yards per game this season and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Burton totaled only 28 yards vs. Georgia and only 29 yards vs. LSU in recent high-stakes games.
