by Al McMordie
Friday, Jul 12, 2024The Canadian Football League is unusual in that it has an odd number of teams. Although this hasn't always been the case, it has since the founding of the Ottawa Redblacks in 2014. And that expanded the number of teams from eight to nine. The upshot is that there will always be one team which is not in action in any given week.
For our system of the week, we are going to use the CFL schedule to our advantage. What we want to do is simply play against any unrested team when it is matched up against a rested opponent.
Since 2006, our rested teams have cashed 55.1% (134-109-7 ATS).
Let's break our system down further to see how it does in various categories:
Home: 87-82-4 ATS
Away: 47-27-3 ATS
Favorite: 80-74-6 ATS
Underdog: 53-34-1 ATS
PK: 1-1 ATS
Double-Digit Favorite: 10-9-2 ATS
Double-Digit Underdog: 6-3 ATS
With Revenge: 37-27-2 ATS
Into Revenge: 52-33-2 ATS
Off Win: 65-55-7 ATS
Off Loss: 67-54 ATS
Foe Off Win: 77-60-3 ATS
Foe Off Loss: 57-49-4 ATS
Off Back-to-Back Wins: 27-31-4 ATS
Off Back-to-Back Losses: 42-27 ATS
Foe Off Back-to-Back Wins: 41-32-1 ATS
Foe Off Back-to-Back Losses: 30-27-2 ATS
Conference Game: 73-61-5 ATS
Non-Conference Game: 61-48-2 ATS
Winning Team: 66-56-6 ATS
Non-Winning Team: 68-53-1 ATS
Foe Winning Team: 74-56-4 ATS
Foe Non-Winning Team: 60-53-3 ATS
This system does its best work when our rested team is NOT a home favorite. With those two criteria filtered out, our 134-109-7 ATS system moves to 70-46-4 ATS. Also, this system does well when we eliminate rested teams off back-to-back wins, and avoid going against unrested teams off back-to-back losses. With those two criteria filtered out, our system has gone 84-56-2 ATS since 2006 (including 50-30-1 ATS if home favorites are also eliminated).
This week, our rested team is Edmonton, which is a 3-point home favorite vs. Ottawa. The Elks do come into this game off back-to-back losses, while Ottawa is off a single loss. So, those don't serve as negative factors. But the Elks are a home favorite, and home favorites are a mediocre 64-63-3 ATS. Still, I would only look at Edmonton in this game because of the rest factor.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
For our system of the week, we are going to use the CFL schedule to our advantage. What we want to do is simply play against any unrested team when it is matched up against a rested opponent.
Since 2006, our rested teams have cashed 55.1% (134-109-7 ATS).
Let's break our system down further to see how it does in various categories:
Home: 87-82-4 ATS
Away: 47-27-3 ATS
Favorite: 80-74-6 ATS
Underdog: 53-34-1 ATS
PK: 1-1 ATS
Double-Digit Favorite: 10-9-2 ATS
Double-Digit Underdog: 6-3 ATS
With Revenge: 37-27-2 ATS
Into Revenge: 52-33-2 ATS
Off Win: 65-55-7 ATS
Off Loss: 67-54 ATS
Foe Off Win: 77-60-3 ATS
Foe Off Loss: 57-49-4 ATS
Off Back-to-Back Wins: 27-31-4 ATS
Off Back-to-Back Losses: 42-27 ATS
Foe Off Back-to-Back Wins: 41-32-1 ATS
Foe Off Back-to-Back Losses: 30-27-2 ATS
Conference Game: 73-61-5 ATS
Non-Conference Game: 61-48-2 ATS
Winning Team: 66-56-6 ATS
Non-Winning Team: 68-53-1 ATS
Foe Winning Team: 74-56-4 ATS
Foe Non-Winning Team: 60-53-3 ATS
This system does its best work when our rested team is NOT a home favorite. With those two criteria filtered out, our 134-109-7 ATS system moves to 70-46-4 ATS. Also, this system does well when we eliminate rested teams off back-to-back wins, and avoid going against unrested teams off back-to-back losses. With those two criteria filtered out, our system has gone 84-56-2 ATS since 2006 (including 50-30-1 ATS if home favorites are also eliminated).
This week, our rested team is Edmonton, which is a 3-point home favorite vs. Ottawa. The Elks do come into this game off back-to-back losses, while Ottawa is off a single loss. So, those don't serve as negative factors. But the Elks are a home favorite, and home favorites are a mediocre 64-63-3 ATS. Still, I would only look at Edmonton in this game because of the rest factor.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
