Game Time: 7:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 29th, 2022

Venue: Galen Center, Los Angeles, California

Where to Watch:  Pac-12 Network

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  NL

Caesars:  Spread: NL

VegasInsider:  Spread: NL

WynnBet: Spread: NL

USC: 7-3 conf, 17-3 overall (Pac 12)

Cal: 2-7 conf, 9-11 overall (Pac 12)

The Pac 12 is a tough conference this college basketball season.  UCLA, Arizona, and USC look like not only tournament teams, but hard out… if not the potential winner in the bunch.  UCLA recently beat Arizona to retake #1 in the conference.  #3 USC lost to  #4 Stanford twice.  And everyone is beating the California Golden Bears.  The Bears are empty and getting trounced by everyone worth anything in the Pac-12.  This a battle between top notch infantry and simple cannon fodder.  The Trojans will win unless they suffer a disaster of injuries just before the game.  Cal will lose… no unless… Cal will lose.  The decision to be made here is whether or not USC is likely to cover the spread. Let’s look at the numbers.

The Cal Bears have lost six games in a row in conference.  Once again the Cal Bears are on a six-game losing streak.  Just in case you missed it, the California Golden Bears last won 7 games ago against the Arizona State Sun Devils on January 2nd.  Also USC has already beaten this team 77-63.  For Cal that loss was also a loss against the spread… that is why the spread is larger this time around… also all the losing.  The Golden Bears leading scorer is Guard Jordan Shepherd… he puts in 14.4 ppg and not much more.  Their best player may be Forward Jordan Kelly who pulls down 13.5 ppg and 8.6 rpg. If you are a team in the Pac-12 and the NBA draft will not come calling for either of your two best players… you may be the California Golden Bears.  Both guys are Seniors… So next year if the recruiting class isn’t top notch we may be looking at an unfixable situation for several years to come.

The USC Trojans spent last season showcasing and then sending the NBA PF/C Evan Mobley… That guy may be the NBA’s Rookie of the Year if Scottie Barnes doesn’t swipe it from him by year’s end.  This season the Trojans have Isaiah Mobley playing Center (Evan’s OLDER brother) and Isaiah is pulling down 14.4 ppg and 8.7 rpg. 1 steal, 1 block, and 3 apg.  Good numbers.  Isaiah is clearly the top guy… but he is not alone out there.  PG Boogie Ellis who transferred from Memphis is pouring in 12 points and 2.8 assists. Forward Chevez Goodwin is pouring in 12 points and 7 rebounds.  It’s a pure team effort and good team play.  They have everything they need to beat Cal yesterday, today , and tomorrow.  They just don’t have the type of roster that will tackle UCLA and Arizona.  

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Cal is 9-11 on the season, but 13-7 ATS.  They have logged 10 Overs and 10 Unders.  They are 0-5 in road games… they can’t win traveling!... They get spooked away from the house… yet, sometimes they cover.

USC is 17-3 on the season, but 11-9 ATS.  They have notched 9 Overs and 11 Unders.  They are 8-2 at home.  They can be beat at home, but not by hot garbage.

Cal is 316th in the nation in scoring with 64.6 ppg, 211th in rebounds with 32.1 per game, and 234th in AST/TO ratio with 1.0.  They shoot 205th in FG%, 203rd in 3PT%, and 152nd in FT%.  The one and only place they aren’t below average is defense where they rank 84th while only allowing 65.3 ppg from opponents.  However don’t be fooled a lot of little programs were sacrificed to get the defensive numbers that low… and still the offense stinks.

USC is 111th in 74.3 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 38.8 per game, and 48th in AST/To ratio with 1.3. They rank 42nd in FG%, 76th in 3PT%, and dig a deep hole at FT% by ranking 350th… I don’t care who you are, you will lose close games if you are only shooting 62.8% from the charity stripe.  Fortunately this won’t be a close game for them.  They are ranked 41st on defense with 63.1 ppg from opponents.

Our prediction for Saturday, January 29th is…  USC 81 - Cal 59

This is a runaway in the making… The last time USC won by 14 and covered a simple -5.5 point spread in the process.  This time Cal will enter already beaten and USC will drill them to the floorboards… I will try to get my book to give me better odds if they push the spread back… That is how certain I am Cal will lose by 14+

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Cal: F Monty Bowser (ankle) Out indefinitely

USC: F Joshua Morgan (knee) Quest

Cal: Joel Brown, Andre Kelly, Sam Alajiki, Jordan Shepherd, Jalen Celestine

USC: Boogie Ellis, Chevez Goodwin, Isaiah Mobley, Drew Peterson, Max Agbonkpolo

Cal

Points: Jordan Shepherd 14.4

Assists: Joel Brown 3.2

Rebounds: Andre Kelly 8.6

Steals: Jordan Shepherd 1.1

Blocks: Andre Kelly 0.6

USC

Points: Isaiah Mobley 14.4

Assists: Isaiah Mobley 3.4

Rebounds: Isaiah Mobley 8.7

Steals: Isaiah Mobley 0.9

Blocks: Isaiah Mobley 1.1

Cal:  Mark Fox.  Coach Fox has had the head coaching gig at Cal since 2019.  Prior to this he was the head coach at Georgia for 9 seasons.  His head coaching record (including 5 seasons at Nevada) is 308-213.  He has hit a ceiling and should bail for greener pastures in wins even if it means a slight step down in salary.  Losing this much is where coaches throw away reputation… All of a sudden winning could mean the difference between coaching 4 more years or 15 more years.

USC: Andy Enfield.  Coach Enfield has had the Trojan gig since 2013 when he came over from Florida Gulf Coast.  He has had to build something here and has done well.  A career mark of 214-140 is pretty good. Of course if Lincoln Riley had a brother who coached basketball at any level Andy would be tossed out in a heartbeat.  This is a football school after all.