by Team Del Genio
Friday, Jun 30, 2023The Texas Rangers had big expectations this season for Jacob DeGrom, who was their big offseason splash in the free-agent market. Yet the Rangers only got six starts and 30 1/3 innings of work from the 35-year-old before an injury that requires Tommy John surgery that will keep him for at least the rest of the 2023 season.
Dane Dunning took his place in the Texas starting rotation when DeGrom first got injured earlier in the year. He had a 4-8 record in his 29 starts last year while posting a 4.46 era and a 1.43 whip in 153 1/3 innings. With the Rangers acquiring Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney in addition to DeGrom in the offseason, Dunning was initially the odd man out. Yet after the DeGrom injury, Dunning took full advantage of his opportunity.
The 28-year-old right-hander went into his most recent start on Wednesday, June 28th, with a 6-1 record with a 2.76 era and a 1.17 whip in seventeen appearances as a starter or out of the bullpen this season. Despite those impressive numbers, his expected era was almost double his current era at 5.09. He had been pretty fortunate to have a 77.9% strand rate for runners left on base, above the MLB average in the 72% range. The league batting average for balls put into play is in the .290 range yet Dunning had a babip of .267. He had only struck out 14.0% of the batters he had faced, and he had walked 7.3% of opposing hitters. Pitchers that keep their era below 3.00 with strikeout and walk rates like that usually coax ground balls over 50% of the time for the batted balls they allow into play. Dunning’s ground ball rate was 46.7% which is a three-year low.
Dunning continued to defy expectations with a dominant performance against the Detroit Tigers in that game. He came one out shy of a complete game while only giving up only four hits and two runs in those 8 2/3 innings of work. He begins July as one of the bigger surprises in MLB with a 7-1 record that accompanies a 2.69 era and a 1.10 whip.
Yet how much should be read into that performance against a Tigers team that went into the last day of the month having scored more than three runs just twice in their last six games? Detroit was averaging only 3.8 runs per game this season with a .229 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and a slugging percentage of .363 going into their Friday night game in Colorado.
Dunning still has an above-average strand rate of 77.9% of runners left on base when he finishes an inning. His batting average of the balls put into play against him is now. 258. Neither of those numbers is likely to remain as favorable. Despite striking out ten batters on Wednesday, his strikeout remains 15.8% of all the batters he has faced. He is averaging only 5.71 strikeouts per nine innings.
Perhaps he can keep up a fantastic era, yet he is only inducing ground balls in 48.6% of the batted balls being put into play against him. At this point, Dunning is being priced in as one of the most effective starting pitchers in the American League by the oddsmakers. With those additional numbers providing context, buyer beware for the bettor when it comes to backing Dunning for the second half of the MLB regular season.
Good luck - TDG.
Dane Dunning took his place in the Texas starting rotation when DeGrom first got injured earlier in the year. He had a 4-8 record in his 29 starts last year while posting a 4.46 era and a 1.43 whip in 153 1/3 innings. With the Rangers acquiring Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney in addition to DeGrom in the offseason, Dunning was initially the odd man out. Yet after the DeGrom injury, Dunning took full advantage of his opportunity.
The 28-year-old right-hander went into his most recent start on Wednesday, June 28th, with a 6-1 record with a 2.76 era and a 1.17 whip in seventeen appearances as a starter or out of the bullpen this season. Despite those impressive numbers, his expected era was almost double his current era at 5.09. He had been pretty fortunate to have a 77.9% strand rate for runners left on base, above the MLB average in the 72% range. The league batting average for balls put into play is in the .290 range yet Dunning had a babip of .267. He had only struck out 14.0% of the batters he had faced, and he had walked 7.3% of opposing hitters. Pitchers that keep their era below 3.00 with strikeout and walk rates like that usually coax ground balls over 50% of the time for the batted balls they allow into play. Dunning’s ground ball rate was 46.7% which is a three-year low.
Dunning continued to defy expectations with a dominant performance against the Detroit Tigers in that game. He came one out shy of a complete game while only giving up only four hits and two runs in those 8 2/3 innings of work. He begins July as one of the bigger surprises in MLB with a 7-1 record that accompanies a 2.69 era and a 1.10 whip.
Yet how much should be read into that performance against a Tigers team that went into the last day of the month having scored more than three runs just twice in their last six games? Detroit was averaging only 3.8 runs per game this season with a .229 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and a slugging percentage of .363 going into their Friday night game in Colorado.
Dunning still has an above-average strand rate of 77.9% of runners left on base when he finishes an inning. His batting average of the balls put into play against him is now. 258. Neither of those numbers is likely to remain as favorable. Despite striking out ten batters on Wednesday, his strikeout remains 15.8% of all the batters he has faced. He is averaging only 5.71 strikeouts per nine innings.
Perhaps he can keep up a fantastic era, yet he is only inducing ground balls in 48.6% of the batted balls being put into play against him. At this point, Dunning is being priced in as one of the most effective starting pitchers in the American League by the oddsmakers. With those additional numbers providing context, buyer beware for the bettor when it comes to backing Dunning for the second half of the MLB regular season.
Good luck - TDG.
