Buy Low, Sell High In The NBA

Three NBA teams to back and three to fade as the season grinds into February: 

Miami Heat – One way or another, the Jimmy Butler Dilemma will be solved. The Heat (and really we’re talking President Pat Riley here) will not allow Butler to continue the Play-Sulk-Sit-Suspend business model much longer. And when Butler is no longer in uniform, the remaining players will breathe a sigh of relief and move on.  Miami enters the month of February at .500, but would have to be truly dreadful over the next few months to bad enough to enter the lottery. Besides, unlike 9 or 10 teams, they refuse to tank. They’ll at least play hard post-Butler.

Orlando Magic – This was supposed to be a breakout year for the young Magic, who last season were only a few good quarters away from finishing in third in the East. Then, injuries. After finishing 12 games over .500 last season, the Magic are now a break-even team. But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Sparkplug high-motor Jalen Suggs, who is the key to just about everything Orlando does on offense and defense, has returned to action after missing 10 games with a lower back issue. Franz Wagner is also playing once again. The Magic will move heaven and earth to avoid the Play-In Tournament, and it appears doable.

Denver Nuggets – Making up 9 games is the loss column in the Western Conference is obviously a bridge too far, but the Nuggets are now playing like the could make a real run at finishing second in the West, behind the Thunder. The O/U win total for Denver is 51.5, which would require only a 24-13 record the rest of the way. And to motivation, add the fact that Nikola Jokic is in the running for a fourth MVP Award and runningmate Jamal Murray has finally emerged from whatever funk he had been in since last summer’s Olympics, and the immediate future looks good.

New Orleans Pelicans – Any team that loses by 31 points to Charlotte has to think about starting over. The Pelicans’ defense is atrocious (they give up almost 118 a game), Zion Williamson is playing but not in NBA game shape, and there’s snow on Bourbon Street. What else could go wrong? It’s definitely tanking time in the Big Easy, and the thought of Williamson (if he stays) playing alongside Cooper Flagg next season might keep the fan base from a mass exit.

Philadelphia 76ers – Can things get any worse in Philly? The team bites, and the only way they can keep their first-round pick next season if they get worse this year (their first-rounder goes to Oklahoma City    if it’s not in the top 6). Now losing games is something the Sixers are actually pretty good at (See: Process). But if they lose intentionally to protect the future, the NBA suits will come down hard on them. It’s ok for small market teams to tank, but not descendants of Chamberlain, Erving and Iverson. Who knows what's going to happen with Philly.

Washington Wizards – Before the season, bettors could bet over or under on the Wiz winning 22.5 games. They are now on a pace to win all of 11 games, and if things don’t get better they could challenge the record for the worst mark (9-73) in NBA history, set by the 1972-73 Sixers. Teams this bad don’t have to tank. They can play hard and still lose. And lose they will. Washington is the worst defensive team in the league and loses by an average of nearly 15 points a game. They have given absolutely no indication that things will change much over the rest of the season.