Buffalo Bulls vs Liberty Flames Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/04/2025

Game Time: 11:00 am ET, Saturday, January 4, 2024

Venue:  Thomas A Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Buffalo -2.5, Liberty +2.5; Over/Under:  51 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Buffalo -2.5, Liberty +2.5; Over/Under:  51 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Buffalo -2.5, Liberty +2.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Buffalo Bulls:  8-4 (6-2) (3rd place, MAC)

Liberty Flames:  8-3 (5-3) (4th place, Conference USA)

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Buffalo Bulls:  won their last game at home against the Kent State Golden Flashes 43-7.

Liberty Flames:  lost their last game on the road against the Sam Houston State Bearkats 20-18.

Buffalo is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Kent State 43-7. CJ Ogbonna was the starting QB and he completed 14/22 passes for 193 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Al-Jay Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 185 and 1 TD. Victor Snow led the receivers with 99 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Shaun Dolac led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while Dion Crawford led the defense in sacks with 2. Kobi Blackwell came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Liberty is entering this game with an 8-3 record overall and they have a 5-3 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Sam Houston State 20-18. Kaidon Salter was the starting QB and he completed 12/35 passes for 83 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Quinton Cooley led the team in rushing yards with 90. Reese Smith led the receivers with 26 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jayden Sweeney and Jerome Jolly Jr. each led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Joseph Carter and Donovan Dozier each led the defense in sacks with 1. Donovan Dozier came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Buffalo listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Buffalo has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall and their 6-2 conference record which has them right near the top of the MAC. They didn't do enough to go to the MAC Championship this year, but they improved a lot with their new head coach and are taking steps in the right direction. Meanwhile, Liberty has looked good in their games this season with their 8-3 record overall, but their 5-3 conference record has them in the middle of the C-USA. They were the defending champions of the conference, but they didn't have a great year and actually took steps back from their season last year. They were the best group of 5 team in the nation last season, but they failed to get back to their conference championship this year. Salter did not have a good season with a lot of sloppy play and Liberty also had a long period of rest during the regular season when one of their games got cancelled, but that really messed them up as a team. They couldn't find any rhythm in conference play after that so this long lay-off is not going to help them much. They also didn't really impress in a lot of their games as they had some bad losses in the conference and some really close calls too. Buffalo has been building a good new program with their 1st year head coach and they are trending in the right direction while Liberty is going the opposite way. The best way to place a bet here is on Buffalo to cover the spread in this game. 

Buffalo Liberty Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, January 4, 2024 (11:00 am ET start time) is Buffalo 31 Liberty 24.

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Buffalo Bulls: 5-10 1H ATS after playing a game at home. 1-5 1H ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 1-7 1H ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 5-1 UNDER after a win by 17 or more points. 5-1 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less last game. 

Liberty Flames: 5-1 ATS as an underdog. 9-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 6-2 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 250 or more passing yards/game. 5-1 UNDER as an underdog. 5-1 UNDER after a bye week. 8-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.

Buffalo Bulls:  N. Roy (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Ogg (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Simmons (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Brown (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Wolo (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Whitmer (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Oliver (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Mays (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Goins (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. McMillan (WR) Out - Knee.

Liberty Flames:  B. Hanshaw (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Burklow (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Henderson (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Bodnar (SAF) Out - Undisclosed. D. Copeland (WR) Out - Lower Body. J. Bradford (QB) Out - Undisclosed.

“We’ve got a great trip for these guys. We’ve got an opportunity for, not only our players, but our staff and all of the support staff, the managers, all of these players that contribute to helping this program stay up and running.” - Pete Lembo on playing in the Bahamas Bowl. 

“Our team is excited about playing and wants to finish this season the right way. There are obviously a lot of guys that are returning. This will be an opportunity for them to set the tone for next season. Anytime you can go into the offseason with a victory, I think that’s important. Our team’s excited about what it can do for this year’s group, the legacy they can leave, but also continue to grow the program going forward.” - Jamey Chadwell on playing in the Bahamas Bowl.

WR Jenkins, JJ 

WR Johnson, Taji 

WR Snow, Victor 

TE Orlando, Jake

QB Ogbonna, C.J.

RB Henderson, Al-Jay

WR Mobley, Tyson

WR Lee Jr., Donte

WR Sibley, Treon 

TE Hanshaw, Bentley 

QB Burger, Ryan 

RB Cooley, Quinton 

Passing: C. Ogbonna (2244)

Rushing: A. Henderson (959)

Receiving: V. Snow (610)

Touchdowns: A. Henderson (9)

Passing: K. Salter (1886)

Rushing: Q. Cooley (1254)

Receiving: T. Sibley (499)

Touchdowns: Q. Cooley (13)

Coaches:

Buffalo Bulls: Pete Lembo (1st season)

Liberty Flames: Jamey Chadwell (2nd season)