by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jan 02, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 5, 2025
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -2, Patriots +2; Over/Under: 38 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -2, Patriots +2; Over/Under: 38.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -2.5, Patriots +2.5; Over/Under: 38 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 13-3 (1st place, AFC East)
New England Patriots: 3-13 (4th place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the New York Jets 40-14.
New England Patriots: lost their last game at home against the Los Angeles Chargers 40-7.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 13-3 record overall and they have a 5-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 8-0 in their home games, 5-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New York Jets 40-14. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 16/27 passes for 182 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 53 and 1 TD. Tyrell Shavers led the receivers with 69 receiving yards on 1 reception and 1 TD. Joe Andreessen led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while A.J. Epenesa, Ed Oliver, and Von Miller each led the defense in sacks with 1. Christian Benford and Jordan Phillips each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with a 3-13 record overall and they have a 1-4 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-6 in their home games, 2-6 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Los Angeles Chargers 40-7. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 12/22 passes for 117 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Antonio Gibson led the team in rushing yards with 63. Demario Douglas led the receivers with 46 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Kyle Dugger led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 2 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked terrible in their games this season with their 3-13 record overall which has them at the bottom of the AFC East with the worst record in the entire NFL. They are coming off a terrible 40-7 loss to the Chargers last week and they have the number 1 pick in the draft at the moment. As bad as they looked last week, they looked a lot better the week before when they played the Bills and this is a game they have a chance to win this time. Meanwhile, the Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 13-3 record overall which has them leading the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. The Bills are coming off a nice 40-14 win over the Jets last week, and that win locked up the number 2 seed in the AFC for them. The Bills have nothing to play for now in this final week of the season after winning last week and since they weren't able to get the number 1 seed in the AFC along with the bye week, they will likely rest players in this meaningless game for them. Now the Patriots are going to have home advantage here and they put up a really good fight in Buffalo 2 weeks ago. They have had a solid offense with Drake Maye over the last few weeks, and their bad defense should be able to hold up better against the Bills' backups. This is a good opportunity for the Patriots to end the regular season with a home win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 5, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 20 Bills 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 11-6 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 8-3 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 5-2 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 16-8 UNDER in road games. 12-6 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 12-5 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more.
New England Patriots: 18-29 ATS in all games. 6-15 ATS in home games. 7-13 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 5-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 15-7 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 8-4 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game. 8-4 UNDER after scoring 14 points or less last game.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: T. Grable (OT) Injured - NIR-Personal. S. Martin (P) Injured - Back. D. Smoot (DE) Injured - Wrist. M. Milano (LB) Injured - Biceps. J. Phillips (DT) Injured - Back. C. Samuel (WR) Questionable - Rib. R. Douglas (CB) Injured - Knee. J. Allen (QB) Injured - Elbow. C. Lewis (DB) Questionable - Shoulder. Q. Morris (TE) Injured - Shoulder. D. Hamlin (SAF) Questionable - Rib. T. Rapp (SAF) Questionable - Neck. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Elbow. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Knee. S. Brown (T) Injured - Neck. D. Carter (DT) Injured - Wrist.
New England Patriots: B. Brown (C) Out - Concussion. T. Leo (LB) Questionable - Ankle. S. Takitaki (LB) Questionable - Groin. A. Jennings (LB) Questionable - Knee. J. Peppers (SAF) Questionable - Hamstring. C. Jacobs (LB) Questionable - Concussion. J. Tavai (LB) Questionable - Groin. C. Wallace (T) Questionable - Ankle. M. Jones (CB) Out - Hip. K. Dugger (SAF) Questionable - Ankle. C. Strange (G) Questionable - Knee. J. Hasty (RB) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“I think Josh Allen continues to show why he should be the MVP. I’ve been around this league long enough to know to see MVP every year for many years. And what he has done on this team and this organization in this community — and no offense to anybody else — but I’ve got a hard time believing that someone’s done more.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Jets in their last game.
“We just didn’t play well enough in any phase of the game. No complementary football, and that’s what you get.” - Jerod Mayo after his team’s loss against the LA Chargers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
New England Patriots
WR Bourne, Kendrick
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Douglas, DeMario
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Stevenson, Rhamondre
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (3731)
Rushing: J. Cook (981)
Receiving: K. Shakir (821)
Touchdowns: J. Cook (17)
New England Patriots
Passing: D. Maye (2276)
Rushing: R. Stevenson (801)
Receiving: H. Henry (674)
Touchdowns: R. Stevenson (8)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (8th season)
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
