by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 10, 2024
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, September 12, 2024
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills +2, Dolphins -2; Over/Under: 49 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills +2, Dolphins -2; Over/Under: 49 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills +2, Dolphins -2; Over/Under: 49 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 1-0 (3rd place, AFC East)
Miami Dolphins: 1-0 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the Arizona Cardinals 34-28.
Miami Dolphins: won their last game at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-17.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Arizona Cardinals 34-28. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 18/23 passes for 232 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 71. Keon Coleman led the receivers with 51 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Terrel Bernard led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Greg Rousseau led the defense in sacks with 3. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Dolphins are entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won
their last game against the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-17. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 23/37 passes for 338 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jeff Wilson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 26. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 130 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. David Long Jr. led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Calais Campbell, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Jaelan Phillips each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 2 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills looked good in their season opener, now with a 1-0 record overall to start the season. They beat the Cardinals 34-28 in a game where they needed some time to get going, but once they got rolling in the game they stormed their way back and didn't look back. Meanwhile, the Dolphins also won their season opener against the Jaguars and started the game really slowly just like the Bills. The Dolphins were down early and came back to win that game in the end, but the offense really struggled even when they did get going. Tua had over 300 passing yards but wasn't really accurate with his throws, and the Dolphins also had no run game in that one either. The Bills have had a really balanced offense over the last year with the emergence of a solid running back, James Cook, and Josh Allen has caused many problems for the Dolphins in recent years. The Bills won both games against the Dolphins last season, and they won the game that mattered the most in Miami at the end of the season with the AFC East on the line. Josh Allen and the Bills have owned the Dolphins over the years and even if the Dolphins edge them out here, it could be a really close win by just 1 or 2 points. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, September 12, 2024 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Bills 20 Dolphins 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 9-13 (-8.60 units) on the 1st quarter moneyline in their last 22 games. 8-12 (-7.75 units) on the 4th quarter moneyline in their last 20 games. 13-7 to the 2nd quarter over in their last 20 games.
Miami Dolphins: 9-1 ATS in the 3rd quarter of their last 10 home games. 8-2 (+8 units) on the 3rd quarter moneyline in their last 10 home games. 14-7 to the 1st half over in their last 21 games.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: D. Smoot (DE) Questionable - Toe. Q. Morris (TE) Injured - Shoulder. C. Samuel (WR) Injured - Toe. M. Trubisky (QB) Injured - Knee. C. Bishop (SAF) Injured - Shoulder. J. Solomon (DE) Out - Oblique.
Miami Dolphins: M. Washington (WR) Injured - Quadricep. J. Ramsey (CB) Injured - Hamstring. A. Walker (LB) Injured - Knee. J. Poyer (SAF) Injured - Thumb. A. Brewer (OL) Injured - Hand. J. Phillips (LB) Injured - Achilles. Q. Bell (LB) Injured - Thumb. J. Holland (SAF) Injured - Ankle. B. Jones (DT) Injured - Knee. T. Armstead (T) Injured - Rest. K. Fuller (CB) Injured - Rest. C. Campbell (DT) Injured - Rest. D. Long (LB) Injured - Rest.
Notable Quotes
“Second time, I knew it was Budda, and Budda’s a good player, and he’ll lay the boom on you. So I decided to go up and over. But probably can’t make a living doing that, but here we are.” - Josh Allen after their win against the Cardinals in their last game.
“The thing that really motivated me the most was when we come in during halftime, and this is like the first time I heard Tua’s Hawaiian accent. It’s crazy. He was turned up and animated in the locker room. I’m like, ’Ok, I’m liking this.'” - Tyreek Hill after their win against the Jags in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Berrios, Braxton
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Achane, De'Von
FB Ingold, Alec
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (232)
Rushing: J. Cook (71)
Receiving: K. Coleman (51)
Touchdowns: J. Allen (2)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (338)
Rushing: J. Wilson (26)
Receiving: T. Hill (130)
Touchdowns: T. Hill (1)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (8th season)
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
