by Rod Pearson
Friday, Jan 05, 2024
Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Sunday, January 7, 2024
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -2.5, Dolphins +2.5; Over/Under: 48 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -2.5, Dolphins +2.5; Over/Under: 48.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -3, Dolphins +3; Over/Under: 48.5 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 10-6 (2nd place, AFC East)
Miami Dolphins: 11-5 (1st place, AFC East)
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Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the New England Patriots 27-21.
Miami Dolphins: lost their last game on the road against the Baltimore Ravens 56-19.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 10-6 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-1 in their home games, 3-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New England Patriots 27-21. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 15/30 passes for 169 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 48. Dalton Kincaid led the receivers with 87 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Terrel Bernard and Jordan Poyer each led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Terrel Bernard led the defense in sacks with 2. Rasul Douglas came away with 2 interceptions for them while Ed Oliver also came away with 1 interception in that game.
The Dolphins are entering this game with an 11-5 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 7-1 in their home games, 4-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 56-19. Tua Tagovailoa was the starting QB and he completed 22/38 passes for 237 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. De’Von Achane led the team in rushing yards with 107. Tyreek Hill led the receivers with 76 receiving yards on 6 receptions. DeShon Elliott led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Zach Sieler led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked good in their games this season with their 10-6 record overall but they still haven't clinched a playoff spot just yet. They had a really rough start to the season and have been rolling in their games lately, but they still need to win this game to secure their spot as a loss puts them at risk of missing out on the playoffs altogether. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have looked great in their games this season with their 11-5 record overall which has already secured them a Wild Card spot if they don't win the AFC east with a win in this game. They have looked a lot better in their home games all season with their 7-1 home record, but the Dolphins also enter this game banged up with a lot of injuries and as much as they would like to win the division here, it might be more important for them to escape this game healthy and get ready for the playoffs. The Bills will win the division with a win here and they still need the win as there is a scenario where the Bills miss the playoffs this year. The Bills will be the hungrier team in this game as the Dolphins are stumbling to the finish line with all of their injuries and the Bills have looked a lot more dangerous in their games lately too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Dolphins Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 7, 2024 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Bills 31 Dolphins 27.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 4-12 ATS off a division game. 17-38 ATS off a home win against a division rival. 11-26 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins. 10-1 UNDER as a road favorite of 7 points or less. 11-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 6-3 UNDER off 2 or more consecutive overs.
Miami Dolphins: 16-9 ATS in home games. 10-3 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 13-5 ATS versus division opponents. 10-5 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 15-7 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs. 12-5 UNDER after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: M. Hyde (S) Prob Sun - Neck. J. Shorter (WR) I-R - Hamstring. J. Allen (QB) Prob Sun - Stinger. K. Elam (CB) Ques Sun - Ankle. D. Hamlin (S) Ques Sun - Shoulder. J. Phillips (DT) Out indefinitely - Wrist. D. Harris (RB) Out indefinitely - Neck. M. Milano (LB) I-R - Leg. T. White (CB) I-R - Achilles. T. Doyle (OT) I-R - Knee. Z. Davidson (TE) I-R - Knee. N. Hines (RB) I-R - Knee.
Miami Dolphins: M. White (QB) Prob Sun - Shoulder. Z. Sieler (DT) Prob Sun - Illness. J. Ramsey (CB) Prob Sun - Knee. D. Riley (LB) Ques Sun - Ankle. D. Long Jr. (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. A. Jackson (OL) Ques Sun - Oblique. J. Holland (S) Ques Sun - Knee. L. Eichenberg (OL) Ques Sun - Calf. L. Cotton Sr. (G) Ques Sun - Hip. T. Armstead (OT) Ques Sun - Knee. T. Hill (WR) Ques Sun - Ankle. J. Baker (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. D. Achane (RB) Ques Sun - Toe. X. Howard (CB) Doub Sun - Foot. R. Hunt (OL) Ques Sun - Hamstring. J. Waddle (WR) Ques Sun - Ankle. R. Mostert (RB) Ques Sun - Ankle. T. Tagovailoa (QB) Prob Sun - Shoulder. B. Chubb (LB) out for season - Knee. C. Williams (OL) I-R - Knee. J. Phillips (LB) I-R - Achilles. S. Ahmed (RB) Out indefinitely - Foot. I. Wynn (OL) Out indefinitely - Quadricep. E. Ezukanma (WR) Out indefinitely - Neck. K. Crossen (DB) I-R - Undisclosed. Z. Vandenburgh (LB) I-R - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“Three possessions down there in the first quarter, and we only scored one touchdown, so that’s not good enough. We lucked out and our defense played a heck of a game. Just trying to find a way to win.” - Josh Allen after their win against the Patriots in their last game.
“There’s times like this one where I would like a time machine for sure.” - Mike McDaniel after his team’s loss against the Ravens in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Diggs, Stefon
WR Davis, Gabe
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Miami Dolphins
WR Waddle, Jaylen
WR Hill, Tyreek
WR Wilson Jr., Cedrick
TE Smythe, Durham
QB Tagovailoa, Tua
RB Mostert, Raheem
FB Ingold, Alec
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (3947)
Rushing: J. Cook (1086)
Receiving: S. Diggs (1096)
Touchdowns: J. Allen (15)
Miami Dolphins
Passing: T. Tagovailoa (4451)
Rushing: R. Mostert (1012)
Receiving: T. Hill (1717)
Touchdowns: R. Mostert (21)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (7th season)
Miami Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
