Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction, Preview and Odds - 01/26/2025

Game Time: 6:30 pm ET, Sunday, January 26, 2025

Venue:  GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO 

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Bills +1.5, Chiefs -1.5; Over/Under:  47.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Bills +2, Chiefs -2; Over/Under:  48 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Bills +2, Chiefs -2; Over/Under:  48 points

Buffalo Bills:  13-4 (1st place, AFC East)

Kansas City Chiefs:  15-2 (1st place, AFC West)

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Buffalo Bills:  won their last game at home against the Baltimore Ravens 27-25.

Kansas City Chiefs:  won their last game at home against the Houston Texans 23-14.

The Bills finished the NFL regular season with a 13-4 record overall and they were 5-1 in their divisional games. They were 8-0 in their home games, 5-4 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 27-25. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 16/22 passes for 127 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 67. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 67 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Damar Hamlin led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Damar Hamlin and Greg Rousseau each led the defense in sacks with 1. Taylor Rapp came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

The Chiefs finished the NFL regular season with a 15-2 record overall and they were 5-1 in their divisional games. They were 8-0 in their home games, 7-2 in their road games, and they were also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Houston Texans 23-14. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 16/25 passes for 177 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing yards with 44 and 1 TD. Travis Kelce led the receivers with 117 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 1 TD. Justin Reid led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while George Karlaftis led the defense in sacks with 3. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs have looked great in their games this season with their 15-2 record overall which led the AFC West with the best record in the entire NFL. They had a bye in the first round so they have only played 1 playoff game so far, but they looked great in their win against the Texans last week, winning by 9 points, and they are undefeated at home this season with a 9-0 home record including playoff games. Meanwhile, the Bills have looked really good in their games this season with their 13-4 record overall which led the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They have played in both rounds of the playoffs and have looked great in both games, beating the Broncos 31-7 and the Ravens 27-25, but they have also played both of their playoff games at home where they are undefeated this season. Now they are going on the road to play the number 1 seed in the AFC and the Bills have definitely been more vulnerable in these road games with all 4 of their losses this season coming in road games. The Bills are also the 1 team to beat the Chiefs this season when the Chiefs were playing their starters, but the Bills do have a recent history of beating the Chiefs in the regular season and then losing to them in the playoffs, just like last season. The Bills have looked great in their 2 home games in these playoffs, but this will be a much tougher test in their first road playoff game this year against a team looking to get their revenge on the Bills, and the Chiefs still have one of the best defenses in the NFL that continues to find ways to win games for them. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game. 

Bills Chiefs Prediction:  Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 26, 2025 (6:30 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 24 Bills 21.

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Buffalo Bills: 12-6 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 22-14 1H ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 6-3 1H ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 12-6 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3. 10-3 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 10-2 UNDER in games played on a grass field.

Kansas City Chiefs: 17-23 ATS against conference opponents. 2-5 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent. 20-7 UNDER as a home favorite. 12-6 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 28-14 UNDER against conference opponents. 15-6 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game.

Buffalo Bills:  T. Johnson (CB) Injured - Neck. Q. Morris (TE) Injured - Groin. A. Anderson (T) Injured - Calf. G. Rousseau (DE) Injured - Finger. C. Benford (CB) Injured - Back. R. Davis (RB) Questionable - Concussion. B. Codrington (DB) Injured - Hamstring. A. Cooper (WR) Injured - Back. M. Milano (LB) Injured - Biceps. C. Lewis (DB) Injured - Shoulder. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Elbow. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Knee.

Kansas City Chiefs:  M. Hardman (WR) Out - Knee. P. Mahomes (QB) Injured - Ankle. C. Jones (DT) Injured - Calf. J. Taylor (T) Injured - Knee. N. Remigio (WR) Injured - Wrist. I. Pacheco (RB) Injured - Rib. C. Conner (DB) Injured - Shoulder. T. McDuffie (CB) Injured - Knee. J. Watson (CB) Questionable - Ankle. D. Humphries (OT) Injured - Hamstring. C. Steele (RB) Injured - Hip.

“The mindset is what it’s all about. These guys believed, played to win, and you find a way, right?” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Ravens in the Divisional Round.

“I joked to the guys, you know, you get a couple of more and you might be able to equal my weight.” - Andy Reid after his team’s win against the Texans in the Divisional Round.

WR Coleman, Keon

WR Hollins, Mack 

WR Shakir, Khalil 

TE Knox, Dawson

QB Allen, Josh 

RB Cook, James 

FB Gilliam, Reggie

WR Hopkins, Deandre 

WR Worthy, Xavier

WR Brown, Hollywood

TE Kelce, Travis 

QB Mahomes, Patrick

RB Pacheco, Isiah

Passing: J. Allen (3731)

Rushing: J. Cook (981)

Receiving: K. Shakir (821)

Touchdowns: J. Cook (17)

Passing: P. Mahomes (3928)

Rushing: K. Hunt (728)

Receiving: T. Kelce (823)

Touchdowns: X. Worthy (9)

Coaches:

Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (8th season)

Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (12th season)