Game Time: 1:05 PM ET, Sunday, November 7th, 2021 

Venue: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

Where to Watch: CBS

Circa:  Point Spread: Bills -15  : O/U 48.5

Caesars: Spread:  Bills -14.5 : O/U 48.5

BetMGM:  Spread:  Bills -14.5; : O/U 48.5

Bills: 5-2 (American Football Conference) (AFC East)

Jaguars: 1-6 (American Football Conference) (AFC South)

Sep and Oct are over and it is time for the Bills to get and stay serious.  In Bills history they haven’t had too many chances to be the best team in the AFC with a fair shot at the Super Bowl… They do this year.  They are favored by two touchdowns and two extra points which seems like a lot, but in this season they are 2-0 ATS when favored by 14.5 points.  Bills stats dominate the Jaguars stats.  They should win and win big on Sunday.  In the greater picture the Bills aren’t as flawed as their biggest AFC competition.  The Tennessee Titans (6-2) just lost Derrick Henry for 6-10 weeks, he was half the team.  The Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) have an interim head coach after the scandal that led to Jon Gruden’s resignation… Plus they just had a quality player in a DUI crash that led to a person’s death, that’s a lot for a team to handle.  The Baltimore Ravens have an all-star, possible MVP quarterback who isn’t vaccinated and could miss any game or two at any time because of a positive test… it happened to Aaron Rogers, it will happen to others. ( Yes the Bills have an in-house dummy in Cole Beasley who is not vaccinated, but not nearly as important as a quarterback).  Each of Buffalo’s last 12 wins have been by a margin of at least ten points.. The longest streak since the 1998-99 Rams… So don’t  get sucked into the Jaguars point spread.  Great betting starts with betting against the Jaguars.

Jacksonville games are exhibitions at best.  They are doing their best to get Quarterback Trevor Lawrence ready for the momentum they will pick up from the next two drafts.  The ppg average total this season for the Jaguars O/U is 46.8… 1.7 fewer than the point total set for this game. Avoid the Over/Under because there is no guarantee Jacksonville will kick in any points.  Stick to the latest spread and remember that Buffalo is 3-1 ATS on the road this season against better teams. 

 

Ben Burns was a PERFECT 4-0 with last weekend's NFL/NCAAF plays. His "BREAKFAST CLUB" won by a score of 45-0. His next is another BEAUTY. As always, it goes BRIGHT AND EARLY. Don't sleep in! Come get it!.. Get Ben’s picks; they're  available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.  And look through all the professional handicappers for help with all the NBA, MLB playoffs, NHL and NCAAF action you can handle.

 

The Buffalo Bills are 6th in the league in total yards per game 402.9.  The majority of that is from the passing game 276.3 ypg. They are scoring 32.7 points per game for 1st in the NFL.. a small fraction above the Cowboys and Buccs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are not completely terrible on offense.  They are 17th in the league in yards per game with 349.3. Trevor Lawrence can and does throw the ball well.  The passing game is getting 233.1 ypg. They could turn these numbers up a bit and be a winning team if they were scoring better than the lowly 17.6 ppg.  They just aren’t any good in the Red Zone.  They don’t have a good enough offensive line to pound the ball with a run game… and they can’t hold a pocket long enough to protect Trevor when he is throwing to the short field the Red Zone creates.  

The Bills are #1 in the NFL on defense.  (this is why you should avoid the O/U)... they are allowing only 15.6 points a game, AGAINST PRO FOOTBALL TEAMS!.  They have held opponents to 269 ypg.  

The Jags are 26th in the NFL on defense. They allow 29 points per game on 386 yards per game.  The Bills will cruise through this defense seemingly untouched.  The Jags have extremely similar defensive numbers to the struggling Miami Dolphins and the Bills beat those guys  26-11 (by 15 points).

Our prediction for Sunday, November 7th is… Bills 35 - Jaguars 13

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Buffalo is 12-6 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons.

In Jaguars home games the Jags are 6-12 ATS over the last 3 seasons.

Buffalo is 20-8 ATS when playing with 6 days or less of rest over the last 3 seasons.

Buffalo is 4-2 ATS as a favorite this season.

The Jags are 2-4 ATS as an underdog this season.

Buffalo:  G Jon Feliciano (calf) doubtful. ** T Spencer Brown (back) Quest ** DT Justin Zimmer (foot) Quest ** TE Dawson Knox (hand) Out indefinitely

Jacksonville: RB James Robinson (Heel) Quest ** DT Jay Tufele (hand) IR ** OL Brandon Linder (knee) IR ** OL A.J. Cann (MCL) IR ** WR D.J. Chalk Jr ** (ankle) IR 

Buffalo:  QB Josh Allen, RB Zach Moss, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Emmanuel Sanders, WR Cole Beasley, TE Tommy Sweeney, LT Dion Dawkins, LG Ike Boettger, OC Mitch Morse, RG Daryl Williams, RT Daryl Williams

Jacksonville: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Carlos Hyde, WR Marvin Jones Jr, WR Laviska Shenault Jr, WR Jamal Agnew, TE Dan Arnold, LT Cam Robinson, LG Andrew Norwell, C Tyler Shatley, RG Ben Bartch, RT Jawaan Taylor 

Bills

Passing Yards: Josh Allen 1,972 

Rushing Yards: Devin Singletary 339

Receiving Yards: Stefon Diggs 503

Tackles: Tremaine Edmunds 48

Interceptions: Micah Hyde 3

Sacks: Greg Rousseau 3

Jaguars

Passing Yards: Trevor Lawrence 1,703

Rushing Yards: James Robinson 482

Receiving Yards: Marvin Jones JR 378

Tackles: Damien Wilson 54

Interceptions: Nevin Lawson 1

Sacks:  Josh Allen 4.5

We could see history in this game if the Jacksonville Jaguars LB Josh Allen sacks Bills quarterback Josh Allen… that’s gotta be a first!  I don’t have the numbers, but how many rushers have ever sacked a quarterback of the same name?  

COACHES

Bills: Sean McDermott

Jags: Urban Meyer.  He has apologized to his family, team, and community for being a rich guy who likes to drink and rub up on pretty, younger, willing women.  

Sunny. 68*, Humidity 69%, wind 11 mph.  A perfect day for football in Florida.  The playing field may be damp from rain that is expected on Friday and Saturday.