by Will Rogers
Wednesday, Dec 20, 2023The period between Thanksgiving and New Year's Day is one of my favorite times of the year. I'm not overly sentimental about the season. Nor do I particularly care for the cold. All the sports more than make up for it! Hockey and basketball are heating up. International soccer is going strong. NFL divisional races are coming down to the wire. Even with all the opt-outs, the bowls are always exciting. December has been treating me well and I'm hoping to stay hot to close out the year.
Just as the holidays can be overwhelming, so can all the sporting options. It's too much for some. Others are able to effectively take advantage of all the added opportunities. I typically fall in the latter group. Here are a few common sense reminders which have served me well at this time of the year. As my "be cautious" theme may not excite everyone, I've also sprinkled in a complimentary bowl game winner. Thanks for reading and happy holidays to all!
Don't Mix Drinking And Betting
It's important not to mix celebrating and sports handicapping. There's nothing wrong with enjoying some holiday cheer. However, it's an easy way to lose our discipline. Months of diligent money management can quickly be thrown out the window if one starts betting after having had too many drinks. There's always tomorrow. My advice is to avoid the sportsbook if you've gotten into drinking. Do your work and place your bets beforehand. Not afterwards.
Don't Play Every Game
One of the biggest advantages at our disposal is that we don't have to play every game. Discipline is more important than ever at this time of the year. Just because there are five bowl games on the first day of bowl season doesn't mean that we need to play all five of them. Of course, there's nothing wrong with doing so either. Just don't force. Play because you feel that you have an edge, not because the game is kicking off on TV in 10 minutes. I personally chose to play one bowl game on Opening Day. The same goes for all the Christmas Day NBA and NFL games. Play only the ones you are really confident in. More on that in a minute.
Be Cautious
For many, the holiday season and New Year’s is a hectic time of year. There are often get-togethers with work, family and friends. It can get us out of our normal routine and can be exhausting. This can eat into our handicapping time. As a professional, I try and keep social engagements to a minimum. That can be easier said than done, I'm a firm believer that there's no substitute for hard work. If you don't have enough time to handicap the games the way you normally would, just take a pass.
Don't Be Afraid to Fade The Line Moves
There's been a lot of line movement in the bowls this season. We're seeing more and more important players electing not to play and that causes the odds to shift. Often, there's an over-reaction and the line moves too much. The players replacing the stars can be better than bettors realize. If you like the game, don't be afraid to go against the move. Getting an extra handful of points in exchange for a starter can be well worth it.
Be Patient
As mentioned above, there's a lot of line movement in football games at this time of the year. There are times when it pays to lock in a play early but its also important to exercise patience. It's not a race to get your bet in. Waiting can get you a better number and waiting provides a better chance to see which players are in and which players are out.
68 Ventures Bowl O/U Winner
On Saturday, December 23rd, South Alabama will face Eastern Michigan. The game, now known as the 68 Ventures Bowl, will be played at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile Alabama. The Jaguars are substantial favorites. I'm more interested in the total. The O|U line has come down from what it opened at. That's providing value with the over. USA games are averaging nearly 53 points. South Alabama is going to score a lot against a suspect Eastern Michigan defense. That will lead to the final score going over the number. Go with the Over!
Just as the holidays can be overwhelming, so can all the sporting options. It's too much for some. Others are able to effectively take advantage of all the added opportunities. I typically fall in the latter group. Here are a few common sense reminders which have served me well at this time of the year. As my "be cautious" theme may not excite everyone, I've also sprinkled in a complimentary bowl game winner. Thanks for reading and happy holidays to all!
Don't Mix Drinking And Betting
It's important not to mix celebrating and sports handicapping. There's nothing wrong with enjoying some holiday cheer. However, it's an easy way to lose our discipline. Months of diligent money management can quickly be thrown out the window if one starts betting after having had too many drinks. There's always tomorrow. My advice is to avoid the sportsbook if you've gotten into drinking. Do your work and place your bets beforehand. Not afterwards.
Don't Play Every Game
One of the biggest advantages at our disposal is that we don't have to play every game. Discipline is more important than ever at this time of the year. Just because there are five bowl games on the first day of bowl season doesn't mean that we need to play all five of them. Of course, there's nothing wrong with doing so either. Just don't force. Play because you feel that you have an edge, not because the game is kicking off on TV in 10 minutes. I personally chose to play one bowl game on Opening Day. The same goes for all the Christmas Day NBA and NFL games. Play only the ones you are really confident in. More on that in a minute.
Be Cautious
For many, the holiday season and New Year’s is a hectic time of year. There are often get-togethers with work, family and friends. It can get us out of our normal routine and can be exhausting. This can eat into our handicapping time. As a professional, I try and keep social engagements to a minimum. That can be easier said than done, I'm a firm believer that there's no substitute for hard work. If you don't have enough time to handicap the games the way you normally would, just take a pass.
Don't Be Afraid to Fade The Line Moves
There's been a lot of line movement in the bowls this season. We're seeing more and more important players electing not to play and that causes the odds to shift. Often, there's an over-reaction and the line moves too much. The players replacing the stars can be better than bettors realize. If you like the game, don't be afraid to go against the move. Getting an extra handful of points in exchange for a starter can be well worth it.
Be Patient
As mentioned above, there's a lot of line movement in football games at this time of the year. There are times when it pays to lock in a play early but its also important to exercise patience. It's not a race to get your bet in. Waiting can get you a better number and waiting provides a better chance to see which players are in and which players are out.
68 Ventures Bowl O/U Winner
On Saturday, December 23rd, South Alabama will face Eastern Michigan. The game, now known as the 68 Ventures Bowl, will be played at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile Alabama. The Jaguars are substantial favorites. I'm more interested in the total. The O|U line has come down from what it opened at. That's providing value with the over. USA games are averaging nearly 53 points. South Alabama is going to score a lot against a suspect Eastern Michigan defense. That will lead to the final score going over the number. Go with the Over!
