Big Al's 2024 Kentucky Derby Preview

The 2024 Kentucky Derby -- to be run this Saturday at the newly renovated Churchill Downs -- will likely be known for the horses that aren't in the starting gate as much as for the ones that are.  That's because it's possible that the two of the best 3YOs in the country won't be among the 20 starters because they are trained by Bob Baffert.  Baffert, you may recall, had a winning horse later disqualified from the 2021 Derby for a doping violation and Churchill Downs has banned the conditioner ever since.  Nonetheless, the landmark 150th running of the Great Race still has plenty in store for serious handicappers and casual fans alike.  So with that in mind, below we present our preview of the Contenders, Pretenders, and live longshots of the greatest two minutes in sports: 

   

Contenders: 

   

#2 - Sierra Leone.  For most horses, the #2 post position in a 20-horse Derby could be the kiss of death, but this son of Gun Runner is a stone-cold closer and he's likely going to retreat to the back of the pack anyway, so the 2 hole probably won't matter and in fact may even benefit horse and rider -- in this case, Tyler Gafflione -- alike.  If the pace is hot enough and Sierra Leone can navigate his way around or through 19 other horses, then he could get trainer Chad Brown -- who has won just about everything else in horse racing -- his first Derby victory.  You may not want to bet on him as the likely 2nd favorite (after Fierceness) but you can't deny his talent and the fact that, if there is enough speed in here, this horse will be flying late.

   

#4 - Catching Freedom.  Here's a riddle for you.  How can you win the Derby without ever having stepped foot (or hoof) in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May?  Just ask trainer Brad Cox what that's like.  Cox had to wait more than a year for his horse Mandaloun to be declared the winner of the 2021 Derby after the official winner, Medina Spirit, tested positive for a banned substance and was eventually disqualified.  So Cox -- one of the most successful trainers in the U.S. over the past several years -- has entered three horses this year in an attempt to find out what it really feels like to win the World's most prestigious horse race.  Of the three, this son of Constitution is the most accomplished, having won the Louisiana Derby in his last start.  At 1 3/16 mile, that race is the one that's closest in distance to the Derby's 10 furlongs.   

   

Pretenders (likely over-bet horses): 

   

#17 - Fierceness. The likely Derby favorite is an all-or-nothing horse.  When this son of City of Light gets a clean break and no other horses are in his way or bumping him, he can run like Secretariat.  This was the case the both last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile and his most recent victory -- a 13-length romp in the Florida Derby.  But when things don't go his way -- he breaks slowly, gets jostled, etc. -- he seems to pack it in.  So what are the chances that everything goes his way on Saturday with 19 other horses trying to win this race and get draped in a blanket of roses?  It would take a lot more than his likely 2-1 odds to get us to find out.  He's on a bad race/good race streak right now (over his last four starts) and it doesn't get much better than his last so it's time for a letdown. 

   

#11 - Forever Young.  Sometimes history is on your side, and sometimes it isn't.  There's no question that Forever Young has an impressive resume coming up to the Derby.  As the only undefeated horse in the field, you could say his resume is the best.  But when foreign runners come to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May -- and lately that means Japanese runners -- they leave empty-handed.  Can this son of Real Steel buck the trend and be the first to take home the Roses?  Sure he can.  But when it comes to Japanese horses in the Derby, I'm from Missouri -- SHOW ME.  And until they do, all bets -- including mine -- are off.

   

Live Longshots: 

   
#3 - Mystik Dan.  If you believe in speed figures, then you're probably going to put some money on Fierceness who has registered the highest numbers in this field.  But the horse with the second highest figures -- both as a 2-year-old as well as in 2024 -- is this son of Goldencents.  The Kenny McPeek-trained runner put up a huge figure when winning the Southwest Stakes by eight lengths and although he couldn't repeat that effort when he stayed at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, Mystik Dan ran a credible 3rd despite having all kinds of trouble.  The McPeek/(jockey Brian) Hernandez combination is one that's very familiar with Churchill downs and in fact Mystik Dan has a 7-length victory over this surface last year.  There are enough knocks against this horse that you are likely to get a better price than his 20-1 morning line, making him one of the best values in the race.

   

#7 - Honor Marie.  Chances are even if you follow horse racing you haven't heard of trainer Whitworth Beckman.  The young conditioner worked for both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown before striking out on his own in 2021.  This son of Honor Code is Beckman's first Kentucky Derby horse, but it almost certainly won't be his last.  Honor Marie has the type of improving form we like to see coming up to the Derby, including a fast-closing second in the Louisiana Derby in his last race.  Another 1/16 of a mile and Beckman's horse would have likely been the winner and wouldn't be considered such a longshot on Saturday.  Beckman is sticking with little known Ben Curtis in the saddle and that might be a problem were it not for the fact that Curtis rides regularly here at Churchill Downs.  Another 20-1 horse with a huge shot.

   

 #15 - Domestic Product.  The other Chad Brown entrant in the field, this son of Practical Joke last won the Tampa Bay Derby after a long tote delay and he was able to overcome a ridiculously slow early pace in that race and still rally to get up from mid-pack.  The resulting speed figure from that race is -- not surprisingly -- low, but it is also misleading because of the way the lead horses were crawling in the first half.  The other reason Domestic Product is a bigger longshot than he should be is because the Tampa Bay Derby was eight weeks ago and few horses have been successful in the Derby after that much time off.  But Domestic Product has been training like a monster and he will also get one of the best jockeys in the world, Irad Ortiz, to pilot him, making him about as live as a horse can be.