Bettors' Guide For March Madness

When March Madness arrives, it’s highly recommended you follow specific strategies rather than place wild bets with no thought or structure. This way, you can manage your bankroll more effectively and also give yourself a better chance at winning. Really, it’s a no-brainer. So, to get you on the road to success, here are a few betting strategies you should keep in mind: 

The NCAA is quite unique in the fact that the favorites typically win most of the time. Excluding the March Madness 2023, where the UConn Huskies won the tournament, each of the previous five March Madness champions were all #1 seeds. For example, when the Kansas Jayhawks won in 2022, they were already the favorite heading into the event. What you can take from this is that betting on the tournament favorite is usually a good strategy when it comes to March Madness, with the Auburn Tigers (+900) sitting as current favorite for the 2025 incarnation of March Madness. I bet Florida a week ago at (+1100). However, it’s generally recommended you wait until the tournament begins until you bet on the favorite, as it’s entirely possible that the Auburn Tigers will experience a dip in form in the months building up to the event, which would then see them removed as favorites. Keep in mind these are “future bets”; not daily point spread wagers. 

Betting on every underdog in March Madness sounds like a crazy idea, but there might be something to it! The NCAA Division I Tournament is known for its wild nature, so it’s an interesting strategy worth considering. In the first two rounds, we look to bet “live dogs”. The favorites might be in the middle of a blowout but to rest their players they might rest them late in the game giving more opportunities for the dog to cover. 

During March Madness, it’s very common for games to receive ‘odds boosts’. The way this works is that specific odds get increased, making the potential payout much higher than it normally would be. Whenever you see a profitable odds boost like this, it’s an excellent idea to take advantage of it, especially if the boosted odds are for the favorite team giving the underdog more points. Fans love betting favorites so the lines are continually adjust  

There are three metrics that I always like to look at first when handicapping tournament matchups.

1. Offensive rebounding percentage: Is a team going to get decimated on the boards?

2. Turnover percentage: Teams that turn the ball over, especially on the road, can get into trouble in the tournament. Alabama is one example that stands out to me. 

3. Free throw attempts per game: Some teams foul like crazy, others don't foul at all. If a team relies on scoring from FT line, what happens if they aren't getting there?

Despite the early upsets, we've seen the best teams find a way to win the title in recent years. Trying to find a long shot to get to the Final Four is a worthwhile approach but so much of the sport right now is match-up dependent that it might benefit bettors to wait until they see the field before firing all of their positions this late in the year. When it comes to betting the opening rounds, some of the value we used to find on the mid-majors has been lost with the widespread availability of forward-facing analytics sites like ours. However, the portal has evened out the advantages the power 5 usually has. 

There's nothing wrong with looking to get involved with a game at halftime or live if you happen to miss a number before tip-off -- absolutely no reason to chase a price. Typically you'll see some additional opportunity in the Round of 32 and Sweet 16 when oddsmakers are forced to overreact with one high-profile data point. I've found it profitable to fade the trendy cinderella after a major upset, knowing upsets are normally attributed to shooting variance -- which can be hard to repeat twice in 48 hours. 

As far as shooting variance is concerned, teams from small schools playing in small gyms for their home games most always have shooting problems. Their depth perception in the cavernous arenas throw off their shots. It they lived by the three, they might die by the three. 

If you took every underdog on the ML in the NCAA tournament in the past three years from the Round of 64 through the Final Four, you would have been paid in a big way. The record is 67-124 (35.1 percent), but $200 per game bettors would be up $7300 taking every underdog on the ML. That’s an ROI of a whopping 19.1%. If you like an underdog, don’t be afraid to at least put part of your bet on the ML. If you’re conservative, only bet money lines on underdogs getting anything from +1 to +7. Any team at + 8 to +30 will most likely have too much to overcome having to win outright. 

Since 2010, betting on an underdog that has allowed fewer than 60 points in their previous game has been a really profitable angle, going 147-98 ATS (60 percent ATS). These are typically teams who slow the tempo down and keep a game close even if they lose. Those slow-paced defensive dogs are rarely popular with the public, but they have been a great moneymaker.

Conclusion 

March Madness is only a month away. Ahead of the biggest event of the year in college basketball, it’s a great idea to sign-up with a sports betting site, set yourself a March Madness budget, and start planning your bets. Remember, you can even start now by betting on which team you think is going to win the championship ahead of time. You can also wait for the event to begin, watch games on TV, and place ‘live’ bets on the in-game action. The options are endless, so make sure you gamble giving yourself the maximum chance to win. 

To guess is cheap;

To guess wrong is expensive. 

Be sure to follow us all throughout March Madness.