2024 Belmont Stakes Preview

This year's Belmont Stakes (the 156th running) will look different than any other as the Triple Crown race which shares its name with the venue where it is held will, in fact, not be run at Belmont Park but rather at Saratoga many miles up the interstate.  And because of the venue change, the race will be contested at 10 furlongs instead of 12 (it was shortened to 9 furlongs in 2020 when it was the first leg of the Triple Crown due to the COVID pandemic).  Will these changes mean that the way we handicap the race will have to change drastically?  Not really.  And to that end, we present below the contenders, value horses, and pretenders (horses to avoid) for this year's Belmont Stakes.

   

Contenders:

   

#9 Sierra Leone -- The scratch of Todd Pletcher's Fierceness means that the shortest odds in this race will fall squarely in the saddle of this son of Gun Runner trained by Chad Brown.  Being a stone-cold closer, some may think that shortening this race by a 1/4 mile will hurt Sierra Leone's chances but there is very little reason to think that it will matter.  In the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby, Sierra Leone missed by only a nose, beating 18 others in the process.  A rider switch to the more experienced Flavien Prat should also help his chances (as should a new bit which will give the jockey more control over the somewhat unpredictable 3YO).  The outside post is some icing on the cake for him.

   

#10 Mindframe -- "New Shooters" are horses that didn't run in the Derby or Preakness but, for a variety of reasons, show up for this race.  And they have a pretty good record as well.  Can Todd Pletcher's son of Constitution repeat the success of last year's Belmont winner, Archangelo, who also skipped each of the first two legs of the Triple Crown?  Well, the fact that the Hall of Fame trainer has decided to enter Mindframe in this spot after only a pair of non-stakes victories -- impressive as they were -- should tell you something.  Add Irad Ortiz in the saddle -- possibly the best jockey in North America -- and you have a very live horse.  Don't be surprised if his 7-2 odds go down a bit prior to post time.

   

Value Horses:

   

#3 Mystik Dan -- What can you say about a horse who finished first in the Derby and second in the Preakness?  Well for one thing, you can say that Mystik Dan is the Rodney Dangerfield of this bunch (getting "no respect").  Despite near perfection in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, this son of Goldencents will find himself no better than the third choice today.  Is that reason to lay off of the Kenny McPeak 3YO?  On the contrary, it could very well be an opportunity to take advantage of his 5-1 odds, which could even be higher come post time.

   

#5 Antiquarian -- Like the aforementioned Mindframe, Antiquarian is a new shooter trained by Todd Pletcher.  And like the also-aforementioned Archangelo, this son of Preservationist was last seen winning the Peter Pan one week after the Kentucky Derby.  But while there is backstretch buzz surrounding Mindframe due to the impressive nature of his victories, there is little hype around this one.  You get veteran jock John Velazquez and double-digit odds and that's enough to get us interested in him.

   

#4 The Wine Steward -- This appropriately named son of Vino Rosso, trained by Mike Maker, won his first three races as a 2-year-old and appeared to be on a fast track to the Kentucky Derby.  But after a second place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity to conclude his 2YO season, The Wine Steward went on a five-month layoff and came back as runner-up in the Grade 3 Lexington, but wasn't ready for the first Saturday in May.  He skipped the Preakness as well and instead ran in the Peter Pan, finishing 2nd.  His speed figures are improving with every race and a career-best effort could be on tap.  And that's what the Wine Steward will need to win this race.  But at 15-1, it's worth a shot.  Extra bonus:  Manny Franco, one of New York's best jockeys, climbs on board for the ride.

   

Pretenders:

   

 #6 Dornoch -- Because he's the full brother of last year's Derby winner, this son of Good Magic will always garner some interest.  Unfortunately for him and his connections, he may be a close relative of Mage, but Dornoch doesn't run anywhere near as fast as his brother did before he was retired last year.  His win in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in early March may look on the surface like a great stepping stone to the Triple Crown.  But the fact is that a slew of good horses scratched out of that race leaving only five runners, and Dornoch ended up winning what was a very a slow race (his speed figure was very low).  His two subsequent efforts in the Blue Grass and Derby support this fact and lead just about anyone to the conclusion that Dornoch is a nice Allowance horse and likely nothing more. 

   

 #1 Seize The Grey -- He's trained by one of the greatest of all time and he won his last two races -- both Graded Stakes -- so what's not to like here?  Well, the problem with this son of Arrogate is that he is the type of horse that will press the pace as he did in both the Pat Day Mile and Preakness Stakes, and that running style could get him into serious trouble today at this longer distance.  From the #1 post position, Seize The Grey almost has to go to the front of this 10-horse field and there's enough speed in here that he won't get away with the easy pace he had in the Preakness and a gate-to-wire performance is highly unlikely under the circumstances.  If the great Wayne Lukas and regular jockey Jamie Torres can pull it off, then we'll tip our hat to them.  But for now we are not going to bite.

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie