by Rod Pearson
Monday, Dec 30, 2024
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Tuesday, December 31, 2024
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Baylor -4, LSU +4; Over/Under: 59 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Baylor -4, LSU +4; Over/Under: 59.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Baylor -3.5, LSU +3.5; Over/Under: 59.5 points
Season Record
Baylor Bears: 8-4 (6-3) (6th place, Big 12)
LSU Tigers: 8-4 (5-3) (8th place, SEC)
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Baylor Bears: won their last game at home against the Kansas Jayhawks 45-17.
LSU Tigers: won their last game at home against the Oklahoma Sooners 37-17.
Baylor Bears vs LSU Tigers Preview and Analysis
Baylor is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 6-3 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Kansas 45-17. Sawyer Robertson was the starting QB and he completed 23/31 passes for 310 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Bryson Washington led the team in rushing yards with 192 and 2 TDs. Monaray Baldwin led the receivers with 119 receiving yards on 7 receptions and 2 TDs. Matt Jones led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Devyn Bobby came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.
LSU is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 5-3 record in their conference games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Oklahoma 37-17. Garrett Nussmeier was the starting QB and he completed 23/31 passes for 277 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Caden Durham led the team in rushing yards with 80. Chris Hilton Jr. led the receivers with 85 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 2 TDs. Whit Weeks led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Dominick McKinley led the defense in sacks with 2. Sage Ryan came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Baylor vs LSU Prediction
The current betting odds have Baylor listed as a 4 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Baylor has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall and their 6-3 conference record which has them near the top of the Big 12. They weren't really a threat to win the Big 12 with the way they started the season, but they got really hot near the end of the year and finished the regular season playing great. They beat Kansas 45-17 in their last game and they were putting up a ton of points in their games over the last month. Meanwhile, LSU has also looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall and their 5-3 conference record which has them in the top half of the SEC. As good as their season was, it was still a big disappointment by their standards as they were looking to make the CFP this year. Now they are dealing with a lot of opt-outs and players in the transfer portal so they are missing quite a few of their starters and back-ups for this game. Baylor doesn't have a great defense so they will give up points here, but LSU has also been giving up a ton of points all season so Baylor will be able to score with the way they have been putting up points lately. Baylor also ended the regular season with a lot more momentum and they weren't expecting to make the playoffs so they will bring their best effort for this bowl game. The best way to place a bet here is on Baylor to cover the spread in this game.
Baylor LSU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Tuesday, December 31, 2024 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Baylor 45 LSU 31.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Baylor Bears: 8-4 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 8-2 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 9-5 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more. 22-13 OVER in all lined games. 5-1 OVER after a bye week. 17-2 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record.
LSU Tigers: 5-9 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 1-5 ATS in games played on a neutral field. 5-9 1H ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 24-15 OVER in all lined games. 12-4 OVER after scoring 37 points or more last game. 9-5 OVER after a win by 17 or more points.
Key Injuries
Baylor Bears: K. Jackson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Hawkins (K) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Finn (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Simpkins (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Johnson (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Williams (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Randolph (OLB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Linton (OLB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
LSU Tigers: K. Lacy (WR) Out - Personal. M. Taylor (TE) Out - Personal. M. Frazier (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Lee (DT) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Johnson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Dellinger (OL) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Malbrue (DE) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Allen (SAF) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Perkins (LB) Out - Knee. K. Parker (WR) Out - Undisclosed. T. Holly (RB) Out - Suspension. J. Guillory (DT) Out - Achilles. J. Emery (RB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I’m proud of that team in the locker room there, just the grit they showed. To go through the season we’ve had and not let the outside on the inside, all those things are just really hard.” - Dave Aranda after his team’s win against Kansas in their regular season finale.
“They listened to the narratives out there that they weren’t excited to play for anything, that the season was over — and they simply went out and played inspired football the last two weeks.” - Brian Kelly after his team’s win against OU in their regular season finale.
Starting Lineups
Baylor Bears
WR Presley, Hal
WR Cameron, Josh
WR Hawkins, Ashtyn
TE Trigg, Michael
QB Robertson, Sawyer
RB Washington, Bryson
LSU Tigers
WR Lacy, Kyren
WR Hilton Jr., Chris
WR Anderson, Aaron
TE Green, Trey'Dez
QB Nussmeier, Garrett
RB Durham, Caden
Statistical Leaders
Baylor Bears
Passing: S. Robertson (2626)
Rushing: B. Washington (1004)
Receiving: J. Cameron (643)
Touchdowns: B. Washington (13)
LSU Tigers
Passing: G. Nussmeier (3735)
Rushing: C. Durham (689)
Receiving: K. Lacy (866)
Touchdowns: K. Lacy (9)
Coaches:
Baylor Bears: Dave Aranda (5th season)
LSU Tigers: Brian Kelly (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
