by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 08, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL
Where to watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Ball State -2.5
BetMGM: Ball State -2.5
Caesars: Ball State -2.5
Season record
Ball State: 5-4 (3-2 MAC)
Northern Illinois: 6-3 (4-1 MAC)
Al McMordie put forth a great week on the college gridiron with a 10-4-0 record and is 38-20-1 over the last month. Catch Al’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Ball State - Northern Illinois preview and analysis
Last week
Ball State: won 31-25 at Akron
Northern Illinois: lost 52-47 at Kent State
The Northern Illinois Huskies thought they were going to coast to a spot in the MAC Conference Championship. Not so fast, my friend.
Northern Illinois, coming off its first loss in conference play last week, will try to rebound against the Ball State Cardinals on Wednesday at home.
The Huskies are coming off a five-point loss to the Kent State Golden Flashes in what could be a rematch for the conference championship in a month’s time. Rocky Lombardi threw the ball 57 but had 532 yards and three touchdowns. They just ran into the buzzsaw that was Kent State’s offense; the Flashes had a 682-663 edge in total yards and there was only one turnover the entire game.
We haven’t discussed a lot of MAC football this season but it’s actually been very entertaining as it was years ago. MACtion may be a little bit buried, but it helps when you have a quarterback like Lombardi throwing it at will every game.
The loss ended Northern Illinois’ five-game winning streak, but more surprising is the books actually had it right with Kent State being favored by a field goal in that game despite NIU’s hot run. But returning home doesn’t appear to be in good fortune for the Huskies at least in the early goings of the books. The Cardinals open as 2.5-point favorites in DeKalb.
Ball State is coming off a six-point win over the Akron Zips a week after losing by a touchdown to the Miami-Ohio RedHawks, once considered one of the hottest teams in the MAC.
Ball State QB Drew Plitt threw for 185 yards and three touchdowns, while top running back Carson Steele ran for 154 yards on 27 carries. Justin Hall led all Cardinals receivers with 73 yards on eight receptions and a touchdown, and Yo’Heinz Tyler also had a touchdown to go with 47 yards.
The Ball State defense was in for a fight against a struggling Akron team who entered with only two wins. Akron quarterback Zach Gibson let it rip for 331 yards on 24 of 31 passing and also threw two touchdowns, while Michael Mathison had 154 yards and a touchdown reception.
Prediction
Things can change week-to-week in college football, but Ball State going against a quarterback that just threw for over 500 yards doesn’t bode well in this affair. If neither quarterback is going to throw interceptions and defense will be optional, things have to look promising for NIU. The Huskies being a slight underdog is still weird, but expect that to potentially change over the next couple of days. I still expect this to be a close game but NIU pulls it out in the end. Northern Illinois by 6
Betting trends
Ball State is 3-6 ATS this season.
Ball State is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite.
Ball State is 5-1 ATS in its last six following consecutive unders.
Northern Illinois is 7-0 ATS the last three seasons following a stretch of failing to cover two of the last three.
Northern Illinois is 4-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
Statistical leaders
Ball State:
Passing: Drew Plitt -- 1,776 yards, 14 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Carson Steele -- 582 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Justin Hall -- 579 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Bryce Cosby -- 74 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT
Northern Illinois:
Passing: Rocky Lombardi -- 1,853 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Jay Ducker -- 579 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Trayvon Rudolph -- 639 yards, 7 TD
Defense: CJ Brown -- 64 tackles
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
