by Rod Pearson
Friday, Dec 27, 2024
Game Time: 8:20 pm ET, Sunday, December 29, 2024
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Falcons +3.5, Commanders -3.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Falcons +4, Commanders -4; Over/Under: 47.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Falcons +4, Commanders -4; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Atlanta Falcons: 8-7 (1st place, NFC South)
Washington Commanders: 10-5 (2nd place, NFC East)
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Atlanta Falcons: won their last game at home against the New York Giants 34-7.
Washington Commanders: won their last game at home against the Philadelphia Eagles 36-33.
Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Preview and Analysis
The Falcons are entering this game with an 8-7 record overall and they have a 4-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-4 in their home games, 4-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New York Giants 34-7. Michael Penix Jr. was the starting QB and he completed 18/27 passes for 202 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 94 and 2 TDs. Darnell Mooney led the receivers with 82 receiving yards on 5 receptions. JD Bertrand and Dee Alford each led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Kaden Elliss, Arnold Ebiketie, and Matthew Judon each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jessie Bates III and Matthew Judon each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
The Commanders are entering this game with a 10-5 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-2 in their home games, 4-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles 36-33. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 24/39 passes for 258 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Jayden Daniels led the team in rushing yards with 81. Olamide Zaccheaus led the receivers with 70 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 2 TDs. Bobby Wagner led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Jer'Zhan Newton, Clelin Ferrell, Jalyn Holmes, and Dante Fowler Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 1. Frankie Luvu came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Falcons vs Commanders Prediction
The current betting odds have the Commanders listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Commanders have looked good in their games this season with their 10-5 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the NFC East and fighting for a Wild Card spot. They are going to have a ton of momentum here since they are coming off a big win over the Eagles in their last one. They haven't clinched a playoff spot yet so they still need to win this game, but they also have a chance to win their division too. Meanwhile, the Falcons have looked good in their games this season with their 8-7 record overall which has them leading the NFC South. They control their own destiny to win the division and they are coming off a big 34-7 win over the Giants in their last one. Michael Penix Jr looked good in that game as he led the Falcons to a win in his NFL debut, but that win was also against the worst team in the NFL this season. This is going to be a very different game for him on the road against the Commanders and not a great situation for him to be playing his 2nd ever NFL game with all that pressure to make the playoffs. Penix won't look as good as he did last week and the Commanders have a lot of talent on offense to attack this Falcons defense that has been giving up a ton of points lately. The Commanders can take advantage of this situation the Falcons are in with a rookie QB making his 2nd ever start. The best way to place a bet here is on the Commanders to cover the spread in this game.
Falcons Commanders Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 29, 2024 (8:20 pm ET start time) is Commanders 27 Falcons 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta Falcons: 4-8 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. 0-4 ATS after a win by 14 or more points. 6-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 5-2 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game. 9-5 1H OVER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 23-10 1H OVER against conference opponents.
Washington Commanders: 8-4 ATS after a win by 6 or less points. 5-2 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 9-5 OVER after playing a division game. 9-3 OVER after a win by 6 or less points. 6-3 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 9-3 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: N. Landman (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. C. Woerner (TE) Injured - NIR - Rest. L. Carter (OLB) Injured - Groin. D. London (WR) Injured - Knee. K. Hodge (WR) Injured - Ribs. R. Dwelley (TE) Injured - Ankle. Z. Harrison (DL) Injured - Achilles. K. King (CB) Injured - Concussion. A. Hamilton (CB) Injured - Quad. C. Washington (WR) Injured - Concussion. M. Judon (OLB) Injured - NIR - Rest.
Washington Commanders: M. Mariota (QB) Injured - NIR - Personal. D. Fowler (LB) Injured - Groin. Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - NIR - Rest. A. Wylie (OL) Injured - Groin. M. Lattimore (CB) Injured - Hamstring. J. Allen (DT) Injured - Pectoral. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Ankle. C. Ferrell (DE) Injured - NIR - Rest. D. Brown (WR) Injured - Hamstring. J. Magee (LB) Injured - Hamstring. T. Owens (SAF) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“He went out and played almost flawless football. He kept the game really clean." - Raheem Morris after his team’s win against the Giants in their last game.
“I always believe that we can win the game no matter what. The game’s never over till the clock hits zero.” - Jayden Daniels after their win against the Eagles in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR McCloud III, Ray-Ray
WR London, Drake
TE Pitts, Kyle
QB Penix Jr., Michael
RB Robinson, Bijan
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Brown, Dyami
WR Zaccheaus, Olamide
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Daniels, Jayden
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: K. Cousins (3508)
Rushing: B. Robinson (1196)
Receiving: D. London (978)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (11)
Washington Commanders
Passing: J. Daniels (3303)
Rushing: J. Daniels (737)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (1029)
Touchdowns: T. McLaurin (12)
Coaches:
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (1st season)
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
