by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Wednesday, Nov 03, 2021
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 7, 2021
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Where to Watch: Fox
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Falcons +5.5, Saints -5.5; Over/Under: 42 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Falcons +6, Saints -6; Over/Under: 41.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Falcons +6, Saints -6; Over/Under: 42 points
Season Record
Atlanta Falcons: 3-4 (4th place, NFC South)
New Orleans Saints: 5-2 (2nd place, NFC South)
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Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Atlanta Falcons: lost at home on Oct. 31 against the Carolina Panthers 19-13.
New Orleans Saints: won at home on Oct. 31 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 36-27.
Atlanta Falcons Analysis
The Falcons are coming into this game with a 3-4 record overall and they are 2-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 2 of their last 3 games but are coming into this one off of a loss to the Panthers in their last game that snapped a 2 game winning streak that they were on. Matt Ryan did not play well in that game as he completed 20/27 passes for 146 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Mike Davis led the team in rushing with 44 yards on 9 carries. Tajae Sharpe led the receivers with 58 yards on 5 receptions while Cordarrelle Patterson had 37 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions. Foyesade Oluokun led the defense in that game with 10 solo tackles and 6 assisted ones while Deion Jones was right behind him with 10 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. No one on the defense recorded a sack for them or came away with an interception in that one. They have scored 148 points in their 7 games this season averaging 21.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 195 points against them allowing 27.9 PPG. Their offense is averaging 334 YPG while their defense is allowing 358.3 YPG.
New Orleans Saints Analysis
The Saints are coming into this game with a 5-2 record overall and they are 2-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and are coming into this one on a 3 game winning streak after winning their last game against the Bucs. Jameis Winston completed 6/10 passes for 56 yards and 1 touchdown before leaving the game with what turned out to be a season ending ACL injury with some damage to his MCL as well. Trevor Siemian took over for him and played a solid game as he completed 16/29 passes for 159 yards and 1 touchdown. Alvin Kamara led the team in rushing with 61 yards and 1 touchdown on 19 carries. Kevin White led the receivers with 38 yards on 1 reception while Deonte Harris had 35 yards on 3 receptions in what was a very quiet day for the receiving corps. Tre'Quan Smith and Alex Armah caught the touchdown passes in that one with 1 each. Marcus Williams led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones while Chauncey Gardner was right behind him with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Kwon Alexander, Tanoh Kpassagnon, and Cameron Jordan all led the defense in sacks in that game with 1 each while P.J. Williams and Gardner each had 1 interception in that one. They have scored 176 points in their 7 games this season averaging 25.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 128 points against them allowing 18.3 PPG. Their offense is averaging 305.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 344.3 YPG.
Falcons vs Saints Prediction
The Falcons are coming into this game as a 6 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Falcons have been bad this season but they are not so bad where they are getting blown out by their opponents. They have been staying in all of their games with a chance to win them, they just cannot finish their games. The Saints are coming off of a massive divisional win over Tom Brady and the Bucs and now have another divisional game right after against a much lesser Falcons team. The Saints also lost their starting quarterback in that win over the Bucs. This is going to be a let down spot for the Saints as the Falcons could not be catching them at a better time. The best bet to place in this game is on the Falcons to cover the spread as they will keep the game close here and might even win.
Falcons Saints Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 7, 2021 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Falcons 20 Saints 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta Falcons: 60-74 O/U as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 231-251 O/U in all games. 125-129 O/U as an underdog. 84-88 O/U as a road underdog. 113-128 O/U in road games. 176-186 O/U against conference opponents.
New Orleans Saints: 78-82 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 134-141 ATS as a favorite. 82-99 ATS as a home favorite. 113-126 ATS in home games.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: C. Ridley (WR) Out indefinitely - Personal. D. Fowler Jr. (LB) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. I. Oliver (CB) I-R - Knee injury.
New Orleans Saints: K. Crawley (CB) Ques Sun - Hamstring injury. T. Hill (QB) Ques Sun - Concussion. D. Washington (RB) Ques Sun - Neck injury. J. Winston (QB) out for season - Knee injury.
Notable Quotes
"They came in here, they ran the ball, they shortened the game. We didn't do enough on offense." - Arthur Smith on his team’s loss to the Panthers in their last game.
"I think it's significant. He felt something and is on crutches right now. ... When he got up and then had to go back down, you were a little concerned." - Sean Payton on the injury Jameis Winston suffered in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Falcons
WR Ridley, Calvin
WR Gage, Russell
TE Hurst, Hayden
TE SMITH, LEE
QB RYAN, MATT
RB Davis, Mike
New Orleans Saints
WR Callaway, Marquez
WR Smith, Tre'Quan
TE Trautman, Adam
QB Siemian, Trevor
RB Kamara, Alvin
FB Armah, Alex
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: M. Ryan (1814)
Rushing: C. Patterson (268)
Receiving: K. Pitts (484)
Touchdowns: C. Patterson (5)
New Orleans Saints
Passing: J. Winston (1170)
Rushing: A. Kamara (480)
Receiving: M. Callaway (284)
Touchdowns: A. Kamara (4)
Coaches:
Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith (1st season)
New Orleans Saints: Sean Payton (16th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
