by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Jan 02, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 7, 2024
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Falcons +3.5, Saints -3.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Falcons +3.5, Saints -3.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Falcons +3.5, Saints -3.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Season Record
Atlanta Falcons: 7-9 (3rd place, NFC South)
New Orleans Saints: 8-8 (2nd place, NFC South)
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Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game on the road against the Chicago Bears 37-17.
New Orleans Saints: won their last game on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-13.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints Preview and Analysis
The Falcons are entering this game with a 7-9 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 2-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Chicago Bears 37-17. Taylor Heinicke was the starting QB and he completed 10/29 passes for 163 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions before getting replaced by Desmond Ridder who completed 3/4 passes for 17 yards and 1 INT. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 75. Tyler Allgeier led the receivers with 75 receiving yards on 1 reception and 1 TD. Jessie Bates III led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Kaden Elliss and Lorenzo Carter each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
The Saints are entering this game with an 8-8 record overall and they have a 3-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-3 in their home games, 4-5 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-13. Derek Carr was the starting QB and he completed 24/32 passes for 197 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jamaal Williams led the team in rushing yards with 58. Juwan Johnson led the receivers with 90 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Pete Werner led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Zack Baun and Bryan Bresee each led the defense in sacks with 1. Johnathan Abram and Alontae Taylor each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
Falcons vs Saints Prediction
The current betting odds have the Saints listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Saints haven't looked good in their games this season as they have been a really up and down team with their 8-8 record overall but they are still in a position to make the playoffs with a win in this game and some help from the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't looked great in their games this season either with their 7-9 record overall but they are also still alive to make the playoffs with a win in this game. Both of these teams need to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive and even then, they would still need some help from the Buccaneers losing to get in. Both teams are still going to play like they need to win this game badly though and the Saints are going to have a ton of momentum from last week. That win against the Bucs on the road was huge for their playoff hopes and they will carry that momentum into this one at home. The Falcons lost some of their momentum though after losing to the Bears last week and they have also been terrible in their road games all season, going 2-5 in their road games. The Falcons have also been a disaster on offense all season with their 2 QBs switching back and forth while the Saints have also been bad on offense but have still found more consistency in their games than the Falcons offense. The Saints have the more consistent offense along with the much better defense and that will be what gets them though this game with a win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Saints to cover the spread in this game.
Falcons Saints Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, January 7, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Saints 21 Falcons 14.
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NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta Falcons: 32-25 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more. 34-26 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game. 30-20 UNDER in all games. 18-10 UNDER as an underdog. 36-22 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points. 10-5 UNDER off a road loss.
New Orleans Saints: 5-10 ATS in all games. 7-15 ATS in home games. 1-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. 5-14 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 32-18 UNDER in all games. 19-5 UNDER in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. 13-4 UNDER versus division opponents.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Falcons: T. Heinicke (QB) Ques Sun - Ankle. K. Smith (FB) I-R - Ankle. K. Street (DL) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. G. Jarrett (DL) I-R - Knee. J. Ali (WR) Out indefinitely - Ankle. T. Andersen (LB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. M. Hennessy (OL) I-R - Knee. A. Ogundeji (LB) I-R - Ankle. F. Franks (TE) I-R - Lower Body. E. Greenidge (OL) I-R - Leg. I. Enechukwu (DL) I-R - Undisclosed. A. Williams (RB) I-R - Knee.
New Orleans Saints: P. Turner (DE) Ques Sun - Toe. I. Foskey (DE) Ques Sun - Quadricep. L. Johnson Jr. (CB) Ques Sun - Knee. L. Young (OT) Ques Sun - Leg. N. Sewell (LB) Ques Sun - Knee. A. Kamara (RB) Ques Sun - Ankle. R. Ramczyk (OT) I-R - Knee. N. Saldiveri (OL) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. K. Miller (RB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. M. Roach (DL) Out indefinitely - Knee. M. Maye (S) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. M. Lattimore (CB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. M. Thomas (WR) Out indefinitely - Knee. E. Benjamin (RB) I-R - Achilles. A. Dowell (LB) I-R - Knee. T. Turner (G) I-R - Quadricep.
Notable Quotes
"You want to go out there and try to win, try to execute plays, and it sucks that sometimes we can’t pull through. We’ve been trying for a while now and I mean we just got to keep on going and try to make the best of the situation right now.” - Drake London after their loss against the Bears in their last game.
“I’ve never questioned the mindset of our team, I’ve never questioned the toughness of our team, I’ve never questioned the compete of our team. This game we play is hard. It’s not easy. There’s some times you’ve got to fight back after a tough loss. But I told the team last night we’ve got to handle hard well. And I thought the players did that." - Dennis Allen after his team’s win against the Bucs in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Falcons
WR London, Drake
WR Jefferson, Van
TE Pitts, Kyle
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Heinicke, Taylor
RB Robinson, Bijan
FB Fisk, Tucker
New Orleans Saints
WR Perry, A.T.
WR Olave, Chris
WR Shaheed, Rashid
TE Johnson, Juwan
QB Carr, Derek
RB Kamara, Alvin
FB Prentice, Adam
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: D. Ridder (2545)
Rushing: B. Robinson (948)
Receiving: D. London (864)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (7)
New Orleans Saints
Passing: D. Carr (3614)
Rushing: A. Kamara (694)
Receiving: C. Olave (1067)
Touchdowns: A. Kamara (6)
Coaches:
Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith (3rd season)
New Orleans Saints: Dennis Allen (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
