by Rod Pearson
Saturday, Jul 13, 2024
Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday, July 14, 2024
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Where to Watch: BSSE
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Braves -185, Padres +154; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Braves -185, Padres +155; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Braves -185, Padres +155; Over/Under: 7.5 runs
Season Record
Atlanta Braves: 52-41 (2nd place, NL East)
San Diego Padres: 49-48 (3rd place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Atlanta Braves: 6-4 last 10
San Diego Padres: 3-7 last 10
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Preview and Analysis
The Braves are entering this series off a loss and split their 4-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 52-41 record overall and have a road record of 23-24. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Padres on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Braves won the series opener of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .711 OPS. Reynaldo López is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Chris Sale is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 9 Ks on 5 hits through 5.1 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Padres are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 2-game series against the Seattle Mariners 2-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 49-48 record overall and have a home record of 25-27. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Braves on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. The Padres lost the 1st game of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .728 OPS. Dylan Cease is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Randy Vásquez is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 BB with 6 strikeouts on 6 hits through 6.1 innings played against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Braves vs Padres Prediction
The current betting odds have the Braves listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Braves have looked good in their games this season with their 52-41 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the NL East, trailing behind the Phillies in 1st place. They haven't looked as good in their road games though, going 23-24 in those this season. Meanwhile, the Padres have looked good with their 49-48 record overall which has them back in the playoff race after a rough start to the season, but they haven't looked that good in their home games with their 25-27 home record. The Padres just got swept in a mini series against the Mariners which they were at home for and they haven't looked great lately with their 3-7 record in their last 10 games. They will have Vasquez on the mound in this one, but even he hasn't looked great at times. He is 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA this season. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and his team has won 3 games in a row with him starting, but this isn't the best matchup for him against a Braves lineup that is getting hot again. The Padres have been in a slump lately and haven't been producing a lot of offense while the Braves have been putting up runs in their games lately, now 6-4 in their last 10. They will also have Sale on the mound here and he is in the conversation for the Cy Young award this year with his 12-3 record and his 2.74 ERA. He also gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and his team has had a ton of success with him starting, winning 2 games in a row and a majority of his starts this year. The Braves are rolling into the All Star break as they try to cut down on the lead the Phillies have in the division, and they are the hotter team coming into this one with the better pitching matchup too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Braves to win this game.
Braves Padres Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 14, 2024 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Braves 5 Padres 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Atlanta Braves: 22-33 (-12.35 units) on the runline in their last 55 games. 8-17 (-12.05 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 25 away games. 44-24 to the under in their last 68 games.
San Diego Padres: 13-8 (+4.25 units) on the moneyline in their last 21 games. 35-31 (+5.15 units) on the runline in their last 66 games.
Key Injuries
Atlanta Braves: B. Anderson (RF) Prob Sat - Lower Body. R. Laureano (CF) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Kerr (RP) out for season - Elbow. H. Waldrep (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. H. Ynoa (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. M. Harris II (LF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. S. Strider (SP) out for season - Elbow. R. Acuna Jr. (RF) out for season - Lower Body. J. Herget (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. T. Matzek (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow.
San Diego Padres: W. Peralta (RP) Out indefinitely - Groin. Y. Darvish (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. T. Cosgrove (RP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Out indefinitely - Elbow. F. Tatis Jr. (RF) Late July - Quadricep. L. Patino (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“I couldn't be happier. That's some good company there, too, the guys he passed. I'm proud of him and happy for him, everything he accomplishes.” - Brian Snitker after his team’s win against the Padres in their game on Friday.
"I feel good, man. Let's see how it goes." - Xander Bogaerts on his return to the Padres lineup.
Starting Lineups
Atlanta Braves
J Kelenic (L) CF
O Albies (S) 2B
A Riley (R) 3B
M Olson (L) 1B
M Ozuna (R) DH
A Duvall (R) RF
E Rosario (L) LF
T d'Arnaud (R) C
O Arcia (R) SS
San Diego Padres
L Arraez (L) DH
J Profar (S) LF
J Cronenworth (L) 1B
M Machado (R) 3B
X Bogaerts (R) 2B
J Merrill (L) CF
D Peralta (L) RF
H Kim (R) SS
K Higashioka (R) C
Statistical Leaders
Atlanta Braves
Batting Average: Marcell Ozuna (.301)
Hits: Marcell Ozuna (104)
Home Runs: Marcell Ozuna (26)
RBI: Marcell Ozuna (77)
Stolen Bases: Ronald Acuña (16)
Wins: Chris Sale (12)
Saves: Raisel Iglesias (21)
ERA: AJ Smith-Shawver (0.00)
San Diego Padres
Batting Average: Matthew Batten (.333)
Hits: Jurickson Profar (101)
Home Runs: Fernando Tatis (14)
RBI: Jurickson Profar (59)
Stolen Bases: Ha-Seong Kim (17)
Wins: Dylan Cease (7)
Saves: Robert Suarez (22)
ERA: Robert Suarez (1.72)
Managers:
Atlanta Braves: Brian Snitker (9th season)
San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
