Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Game Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/14/2022

Game Time: 8:37 pm ET, Friday, October 14th, 2022

Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Where to Watch: FS1, FOX Deportes

 

DraftKings: Moneyline:   (will update)

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  

PointsBet:  Moneyline: 

 

Phillies: 87-75, 3rd place NL East / 1-0

Braves: 101-61, 2nd place NL East / 0-1

Game 3 will be in Philly… and thanks to Game 1… the Phillies have a tied up 1-1 series.  They did the most important thing in sports:  Win 1 early on the road in a postseason series.  This shifts home field advantage to the Phillies.  Of course the Braves shouldn’t be too worried.  The Braves promptly won game 2 3-0, and the Braves have not forgotten that they are the better team.  This has been a great series for my betting predictions.  My recommendations are 2-0 on the ML as predicted.  Game 3 will lean heavily on the pitching matchup.  Let’s take a look.

A National League Divisional Series.  The Wild Card series saw the Philadelphia Phillies pouncing on the St Louis Cardinals and dispatching them from the postseason with extreme prejudice.  It was exciting for Philly fans, who have been waiting for the Phillies to show what they can do all season long.  Now comes the real challenge.  The Atlanta Braves are not the St Louis Cardinals… They are a 101 win team in 2022.  They are a recent World Series winner.  They are deep and full of quality across the roster.  The Phillies may have bit off more than they can chew as they yet again open a postseason series on the road…. With the hopes of again knocking off the team with the better record.  In baseball everything is a possibility… Is this?  Let’s check the pitching matchup and make a BIG BET.

The Philadelphia Phillies just SWEPT the St Louis Cardinals out of the Wild Card series.  That was nice… but as they face Atlanta, they have not had as much rest as the Braves.  The Phillies have a pretty good batting line-up with a couple of famous big hitters in the group.  The catch is of course the very average pitching rotation.  The Phillies as a team are just 18th in ERA… That is not encouraging against a Braves team that is hitting well.  The Phillies do have a big bonus when it comes to their fielding who rarely commit errors… in fact they are 3rd best in the league…. The margin for error when it comes to a bouncing ball is ample.  The Phillies could be the best at simply getting outs when the other team makes contact. It is no secret that a Phillies win for the series will be an uphill battle… but are they worth betting on for a few games in this longer series?

The Atlanta Braves had a great season in a division with the New York Mets that also had a great season.  The result is the Braves came in 2nd in the NL East while finishing with 101 wins.  They have the making of every Braves team… Great batting (3rd in scoring) and great pitching (5th in ERA).  The Braves have a knack for finding guys to do every job well.  This last offseason they lost hitter Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers… Freddie would go on to have 100+ RBI’s for the Dodgers.  With a hole that big you would think the Braves would suffer… They didn’t.  They found guys to fill the need and kept trucking all the way to a dozen wins better than last season.  Are they better? This season they did have to contend with the resurgent New York Mets and they still won more games.  The pitching matchup will be big in Game 1.  The Braves will have to decide how many innings pitcher Kyle Wright gets early in order to save him or not for all the coming games.

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The Phillies finished the season 7th in runs per game with 4.61 per game, 8th in batting average with .253, and 11th in OBP with .317.

The Braves finished the season 3rd in runs per game with 4.87, 9th in batting average with .253, and 9th in OBP with .317.

The Phillies pitchers ended the season 18th in ERA with 3.97, 14th in WHIP with 1.26, and the fielders finished 3rd in errors with only 69 per season.

The Braves pitchers finished the season 5th in ERA with 3.46, 7th in WHIP with 1.19, and the fielder finished 9th in errors with 77 on the season.

 

Our prediction for Friday, October 14th is… Braves 5 - Phillies 3

Expect the Braves to take the first game in Philly just as Philly took the first game in Atlanta.  They will be itching to get the advantage back.  Plus the Braves seemed to have uncorked the hitting in game 2… If that spills over Philly may not make it back to Atlanta for a Game 5.

 

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Atlanta is 6-1 at home this season when the total is 7 or less.

Atlanta is 19-10 in playoff games the last 3 seasons.

Philly is 42-55 as a road underdog the last 3 seasons.

Braves: TBD

Phillies: RHP Aaron Nola, 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 235 strikeouts in 205 innings pitched.  0.96 WHIP.  Aaron has had an off year that has slowly improved as the season went on.  He is 11-13 on the season with a 3.25 ERA.  The WHIP is fine.  The problem here is that he will seem to be pitching into the Braves strengths.  The Braves can hit this guy.  

Phillies: LF Kyle Scwarber, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C JT Realmuto, DH Bryce Harper, RF Nick Castellanos, 3B Alec Bohm, 2B Jean Segura, SS Bryson Stott, CF Matt Vierling

Braves: SS Dansby Swanson, 2B Orlando Arcia, 1B Matt Olsen, C William Contreras, DH Marcell Ozuna, LF Eddie Rosario, RF Robbie Grossman, CF Guillermo Heredia, 3B Ehire Adrianza

Phillies: Rob “we made it to the playoffs?” Thomson

Braves: Brian “snitty snitty” Snitker

A sunny 70* day will dip along with the sunset into a 55* night.  Humidity is 44%, wind at 8 MPH.