Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Bowling Green Falcons Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 12/26/2024

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Thursday, December 26, 2024

Venue:  Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  AR State +7, BGSU -7; Over/Under:  51 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  AR State +7, BGSU -7; Over/Under:  51 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  AR State +7, BGSU -7; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Arkansas State Red Wolves:  7-5 (5-3) (3rd place, Sun Belt West)

Bowling Green Falcons:  7-5 (6-2) (4th place, MAC)

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Arkansas State Red Wolves:  lost their last game at home against the Old Dominion Monarchs 40-32.

Bowling Green Falcons:  lost their last game at home against the Miami-Ohio RedHawks 28-12.

Arkansas State is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 5-3 record in their conference games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Old Dominion 40-32. Jaylen Raynor was the starting QB and he completed 22/36 passes for 261 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Zak Wallace led the team in rushing yards with 89 and 1 TD. Corey Rucker led the receivers with 115 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Justin Parks led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Bryan Whitehead II and Kamari Stephens each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Bowling Green State is entering this game with a 7-5 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 3-3 in their home games, 4-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They lost their last game against Miami-OH 28-12. Connor Bazelak was the starting QB and he completed 26/41 passes for 201 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jamal Johnson led the team in rushing yards with 36. Malcolm Johnson Jr. led the receivers with 75 receiving yards on 8 receptions. CJ Brown led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. CJ Brown and Jordan Oladokun each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Bowling Green listed as a 7 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Bowling Green has looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall and their 6-2 conference record which has them right near the top of the MAC. They had a chance to make the MAC Championship and looked great throughout the season, but they ended the regular season with a bad loss to Miami-Ohio who ended up going to the MAC Championship and losing. Bowling Green has shown some good fight this season though, playing tight games against teams like Penn State and Texas A&M, and they also have a lot of seniors on their team too. Meanwhile, Arkansas State has looked good in their games this season with their 7-5 record overall and their 5-3 conference record, but that record didn't really have them in the conversation for the Sun Belt Championship. They ended the regular season with a 40-32 loss to ODU and their defense hasn't looked great at times. They have an offense that can put up some points, but so does Bowling Green, and Bowling Green has a much bigger edge with their defense too. Bowling Green didn't make their conference championship game, but they have a lot of seniors on their team that want to end their college careers the right way so BGSU is going to bring their best effort in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Bowling Green to cover the spread in this game.

Arkansas State Bowling Green Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Thursday, December 26, 2024 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Bowling Green 31 Arkansas State 21.

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Arkansas State Red Wolves: 8-3 ATS after allowing 37 points or more last game. 5-0 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 6-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 7-3 UNDER after allowing 37 points or more last game. 10-5 1H UNDER after playing a game at home. 5-2 1H UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

Bowling Green Falcons: 1-5 ATS after a bye week. 2-5 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. 6-1 UNDER vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. 9-2 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game. 9-3 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 yards/play or more.

Arkansas State Red Wolves:  C. Hawkins (RB) Out - Knee.

Bowling Green Falcons:  J. Kleather (K) Out - Undisclosed. C. McNeal (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Hardamon (OLB) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Wimberly (RB) Out - Undisclosed. C. Orth (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Rhambo (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Garcia (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Amachree (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed.

“Well I was anxious. First of all, we started back on Sunday. Everybody was 10 minutes early in their seats. That was the first test, so we passed that. I thought for the most part, it was a good way to get bowl prep started. 5 days off, so I think it’s being more intentional tomorrow. We have to be better than we were today from a fundamental execution standpoint, from a habit standpoint, all that goes into playing winning football. But I like our mindset so far. We had Nate Martey back some in practice today. Obviously we’ve been decimated up front in the defensive line with some season ending injuries. But right now, we’re as healthy as we can possibly be since going through a long season.” - Butch Jones on playing in the 68 Ventures Bowl.

“This is all about them now. I’m very passionate to make sure that we give ourselves every opportunity and every chance to play our very best and find a way to get our eighth win.” - Scot Loeffler on playing in the 68 Ventures Bowl.

WR Rucker, Corey

WR Ealy, Reagan

WR Jackson, Courtney 

TE Stevenson Jr., Manny

QB Raynor, Jaylen 

RB Cross, Ja'Quez

WR Hogan, Finn

WR Johnson Jr., Malcolm 

TE Fannin Jr., Harold

TE Gazarek, Levi 

QB Bazelak, Connor

RB Stewart, Terion

Passing: J. Raynor (2562)

Rushing: Z. Wallace (616)

Receiving: C. Rucker (946)

Touchdowns: Z. Wallace (10)

Passing: C. Bazelak (2654)

Rushing: T. Stewart (890)

Receiving: H. Fannin (1341)

Touchdowns: H. Fannin (10)

Coaches:

Arkansas State Red Wolves: Butch Jones (4th season)

Bowling Green Falcons: Scot Loeffler (6th season)