Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/27/2025

Game Time: 10:09 pm ET, Thursday, March 27, 2025

Venue:  Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Where to Watch:  TBS, truTV

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +5.5, Texas Tech -5.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +5.5, Texas Tech -5.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +5.5, Texas Tech -5.5; Over/Under:  148.5 points

Arkansas Razorbacks:  22-13 (8-10) (9th place, SEC)

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  27-8 (15-5) (2nd place, Big 12)

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Arkansas Razorbacks:  4-1  last 5

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  4-1  last 5

Arkansas is entering this game with a 22-13 record overall, an 8-10 record in conference games, and they are 4-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the St John’s Red Storm in their last game. Billy Richmond III led the team in points in that game with 16 while Karter Knox was next on the team with 15. Dajuan Wagner Jr. led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Billy Richmond III led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 42.9% from the field, 10.5% from 3-point range, and 70.4% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 76.6 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 71 PPG against them. Arkansas has an ATS record of 16-18-1 this season and their O/U record is 16-19.

Texas Tech is entering this game with a 27-8 record overall, a 15-5 conference record, and they are 4-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Drake Bulldogs in their last game. Darrion Williams led the team in points in that game with 28 while JT Toppin was next on the team with 25. Elijah Hawkins led the team in assists with 7 in that game while JT Toppin led the team in rebounds with 12. They were 53.8% from the field, 14.3% from 3-point range, and 86.4% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 80.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 67.6 PPG against them. Texas Tech has an ATS record of 18-17 this season and their O/U record is 20-14-1.

The current betting odds have Texas Tech listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas Tech has looked really good in their games this season with their 27-8 record overall and their 15-5 conference record which had them right near the top of the Big 12. They haven't looked great in neutral site games though as they are 4-3 in those. Meanwhile, Arkansas has looked good in their games this season with their 22-13 record overall, but their 8-10 conference record had them in the bottom half of the SEC. They haven't looked great in neutral site games either, going 4-3 in those. Arkansas has looked good in this tournament so far with 2 upset wins, but they haven't had the toughest path so far. They upset Kansas in the 1st round, but that was not a great Kansas team as they definitely had a down year with their performance in the Big 12. Now they are coming off a win over a really good St John's team in the last round, but as good as St John's has been this year, that was a favorable matchup for them since St John's has struggled to shoot all season and that came back to bite them against Arkansas. Now they face Texas Tech and even though Texas Tech has had an easy path so far, they have been one of the best teams in the Big 12 all season and have been tested against good teams too. Arkansas has had a nice run in the tournament, going deeper than they were expected to, but this is where their run will end as they don't have a great matchup against a Texas Tech team that has a lot more talent and can shoot the ball well. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas Tech to cover the spread in this game. 

Arkansas Texas Tech Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, March 27, 2025 (10:09 pm ET start time) is Texas Tech 90 Arkansas 78.

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Arkansas Razorbacks: 4-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games. 26-18 1H ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 10-3 OVER as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick. 33-18 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5. 11-6 OVER in all tournament games.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: 4-9 ATS as a neutral court favorite or pick. 0-6 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 4-12 ATS in all tournament games. 14-6 OVER in all neutral court games. 31-20 OVER when the total is 140 to 149.5. 27-14 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Arkansas Razorbacks:  A. Thiero (F) Questionable - Knee.

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  C. McMillian (G) Questionable - Upper Body. E. Yalaho (F) Questionable - Upper Body. J. Henderson (G) Out - Lower Body.

“Rick did a good job with his team all year. If they made a few shots, they probably beat us. We were fortunate to get out.” - John Calipari after his team’s win against St John’s in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. 

“Our guys were so composed and so tough and that was a huge part of the win.” - Grant McCasland after his team’s win against Drake in the 2nd round of the NCAA Tournament. 

J. Davis 

Z. Ivisic 

K. Knox 

A. Thiero 

D. Wagner

E. Hawkins 

C. McMillian 

J. Toppin 

K. Walton 

D. Williams

PPG: A. Thiero (15.7)

APG: B. Fland (5.7)

Reb/G: A. Thiero (6)

PPG: J. Toppin (18.1)

APG: E. Hawkins (6.4)

Reb/G: J. Toppin (9.2)

Coaches:

Arkansas Razorbacks: John Calipari (1st season)

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Grant McCasland (2nd season)