Arkansas Razorbacks vs LSU Tigers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/23/2023

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 23, 2023

Venue:  Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA 

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +18, LSU -18; Over/Under:  55.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +18, LSU -18; Over/Under:  55.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Arkansas +17.5, LSU -17.5; Over/Under:  55.5 points

Arkansas Razorbacks:  2-1 (0-0) (5th place, SEC West)

LSU Tigers:  2-1 (1-0) (1st place, SEC West)

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Arkansas Razorbacks:  lost their last game at home against the BYU Cougars 38-31.

LSU Tigers:  won their last game on the road against the Mississippi State Bulldogs 41-14.

Arkansas is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too.  They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against BYU 38-31. KJ Jefferson was the starting QB and he completed 24/35 passes for 247 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. AJ Green led the team in rushing yards with 86 and 2 TDs. Andrew Armstrong led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 9 receptions. Jaheim Thomas led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Landon Jackson led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

LSU is entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too.  They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Mississippi State 41-14. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 30/34 passes for 361 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jayden Daniels led the team in rushing yards with 64 and 2 TDs. Malik Nabers led the receivers with 239 receiving yards on 13 receptions and 2 TDs. Andre' Sam led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Harold Perkins Jr., Mekhi Wingo, Major Burns, and Sai'vion Jones each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.

The current betting odds have LSU listed as an 18 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. LSU was embarrassed by Florida State in their 1st game of the season but they clearly didn't have everything ready to go by then. They have looked a lot better in their last 2 games since that loss, winning both games and putting up 40+ points in each. Their defense has also been a lot better as they only gave up 14 points on the road in their 1st conference game of the season and now they will be looking to follow that up at home with an even better game. Arkansas was supposed to have a really good team this season and be a threat in the SEC but they have looked terrible in their first 2 games. They had a big win over a team from the FCS to open up their season but since then they have done nothing but struggle as they only beat Kent State 28-6 at home, a terrible team from the MAC this year, and then lost their last game at home to BYU in a game where they showed they have no defense. They are not going to be able to keep LSU from putting up points in this game with that bad defense and they don't have the offensive talent that LSU has, especially being in their 1st road game of the season to start their conference play here. The best way to place a bet here is on LSU to cover the spread in this game.

Arkansas LSU Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 23, 2023 (7:00 pm ET start time) is LSU 45 Arkansas 17.

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Arkansas Razorbacks: 3-8 ATS after playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. 19-10 OVER in all games. 8-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 5-1 OVER after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 7-3 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses.

LSU Tigers: 10-4 ATS in home games. 13-7 ATS off 3 or more consecutive overs. 13-7 OVER as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points. 9-5 OVER off 1 or more straight overs. 5-1 OVER after allowing 14 points or less last game.

Arkansas Razorbacks:  R. Sanders (RB) day-to-day - Knee. S. Mbake (WR) out for season - Knee.

LSU Tigers:  A. Goodwin (RB) day-to-day - Undisclosed. M. Taylor (TE) day-to-day - Ankle. O. Speights (LB) day-to-day - Undisclosed. G. Brooks Jr. (S) day-to-day - Undisclosed. J. Johnson (CB) Early Dec - Leg.

“They proved they were longer and stronger than we anticipated. No exotic blitzes ... they just whipped us.” - Sam Pittman after his team’s loss against BYU in their last game. 

“Daniels and Nabers hooking up to the level that we’ve always wanted to see, we saw that (Saturday) and that’s certainly fun. If that continues to show itself, we’re a pretty good football team. Defensively, there were many questions. It’s just a matter of getting a lot of young players and new players together. It’s just a matter of time.” - Brian Kelly after his team’s win against MS State in their last game. 

WR Armstrong, Andrew 

WR TeSlaa, Isaac 

WR Wilson, Jaedon 

TE Hasz, Dylan 

QB Jefferson, KJ 

RB Sanders, Raheim 

WR Thomas Jr., Brian 

WR Nabers, Malik 

WR Lacy, Kyren

TE Taylor, Mason 

QB Daniels, Jayden 

RB Diggs, Logan  

Passing: K. Jefferson (629)

Rushing: A. Green (190)

Receiving: A. Armstrong (197)

Touchdowns: A. Armstrong (3)

Passing: J. Daniels (977)

Rushing: J. Daniels (157)

Receiving: M. Nabers (393)

Touchdowns: B. Thomas Jr. (3)

Coaches:

Arkansas Razorbacks: Sam Pittman (4th season)

LSU Tigers: Brian Kelly (2nd season)