by Nelly's Sports
Sunday, Apr 28, 2024
April Starting Pitching NL Overachievers
With most starters now having completed five starts in the 2024 season the data to work with is becoming a bit more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four National League starters may be overpriced in upcoming outings.
Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are 5-0 in the last five starts for Nola, who looks to regain his form as an upper level National League starter after mixed results the past three seasons. Nola has just an 8.2 K/9 this season however, his lowest since his rookie season in 2015. He is also on pace to have his highest BB/9 since 2020 and he has already allowed seven home runs this season. Nolas has had a favorable path in April facing Washington, St. Louis, Colorado, and the White Sox in four of his five starts. Nola can still compile wins with a strong Phillies lineup behind him, but his 2024 season looks more likely to resemble his mediocre 2021 and 2023 seasons than his peak season in 2018.
Michael King – San Diego Padres
King made occasional spot starts for the Yankees, who he pitched for from 2019-2023 but he was primarily a reliever. San Diego has given him five starts this season and he has produced good strikeout counts and owns a 4.11 ERA. His FIP is 5.67 and he has walked 18 while allowing seven home runs in just over 30 innings, however. Most of his success came in one start where he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. He has only made one home start this season as his numbers could improve slightly with more Petco Park innings, but King doesn’t look like a long term answer in the San Diego rotation.
Andrew Abbott – Cincinnati Reds
A second round pick in 2021, Abbott turned in a nice 2023 season with a 3.87 ERA and a 9.9 K/9 in 109 innings, making 21 starts last season for the Reds. He has a 2.60 ERA so far in five starts in 2024 but his FIP is 4.42 and he has continued to battle command issues with a career 3.6 BB/9. His K/9 has also slipped to 6.5 this season in his first five starts. Abbott has a groundball rate below 33 percent, yet he has allowed only three home runs. A factor has been facing the White Sox for his best start of the season while also pitching in a favorable pitching venue in Seattle for his best road start of the season. Abbott is still only 24 and may have a bright future, but he has not pitched as well as a quick glance at his numbers might suggest, and he will be a home run risk in his home starts.
Jordan Hicks – San Francisco Giants
A dynamic reliever in recent seasons, Hicks has been converted to a starter this season by the Giants. Hicks made eight starts early in the 2022 season for St. Louis before being turned back into a reliever and San Francisco may ultimately come to that conclusion as well. On the surface everything looks great as Hicks has a 1.59 ERA in six starts, but he has just a 7.1 K/9 and so far, he has benefited from a .225 BABIP while allowing only one home run in 34 innings. His career numbers feature a very low home run rate but making four of his last five starts at Oracle Park has helped his early season statistics. Hicks has also faced a favorable draw in his six starts but is likely to face the Phillies and Dodgers in early May.
