by Nelly's Sports
Sunday, Apr 28, 2024
April Starting Pitching AL Overachievers
With most starters now making five starts in the 2024 season the data to work with is becoming a bit more meaningful. There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the first month of the season and these four American League starters may be worth avoiding in upcoming starting efforts.
Tyler Anderson – Los Angeles Angels
Anderson had a terrific 2022 season with the Dodgers but his run across town with the Angels last season was disappointing. So far in 2024 Anderson has delivered a 1.78 ERA in his five starts but he has been an incredibly fortunate starter in the first month. Anderson has a .181 BABIP, more than 100 points below his carer average. He is on pace for his worst K/9 since the abbreviated 2020 season and his FIP of 4.87 towers over his ERA. Anderson started the season with 14 straight shutout innings but he will likely see his season line continue to get worse the more he pitches.
Bryce Miller – Seattle Mariners
Miller had some success as a rookie with the Mariners last season posting a 4.32 ERA with a 3.98 FIP in 25 starts. His low walk rate was very appealing but so far in 2024 his BB/9 is nearly double last season’s rate. He has been lucky on balls in play this season with a .182 BABIP and in contrast to last season his FIP is 4.57 this season against his 2.22 ERA. Miller has been a much better pitcher at home in his career and 60% of his starts in 2024 so far have been at home. Miller has still allowed five home runs in five starts despite most of his innings being in a favorable venue in Seattle.
Brady Singer – Kansas City Royals
A first round pick in 2018 and a team USA pitcher in the 2023 WBC, Singer is being counted on to be a key piece of the rotation for a rising Royals team. Singer had a 5.52 ERA last season with some tough luck results. This season things have gone his way with a 2.62 ERA but he has a 3.4 BB/9 and won’t likely maintain his current .209 BABIP and 86 percent strand rate. Singer has an over 57 percent groundball rate so far this season, which is well above his career average as well. His early season numbers are also built on four of six starts coming against struggling AL Central offenses, including two strong outings vs. the lowly White Sox.
Jose Berrios – Toronto Blue Jays
Berrios had a 5.23 ERA in 2022 with the Blue Jays before turning things around for a respectable campaign last season. While Berrios has enjoyed some positive moments, his career numbers aren’t much better than the league average. So far this season his statistical snapshot is at an All-Star level with a 4-1 record and a 1.23 ERA in his conventional line, but his FIP is 3.84, only a bit below his career average of 4.04. Berrios has a career 1.2 HR/9 but so far in 2024 his HR/9 is just 0.7 and he is off to a great start even with the lowest K/9 of his career, at just 6.9. Three scoreless starts in April will keep the numbers low for Berrios for the foreseeable future but he is likely to gravitate towards near average results the rest of the way.
