by Hollywood Sports
Thursday, Feb 29, 2024After a winning campaign with head-to-head props in the first seven PGA Tour events in 2024, we were able to score a big win at the PGA Mexico Open on Jake Knapp at 40-1 just in time before the tour moves to the East Coast.
The rookie took a four-shot lead into the final round — but he did not make it easy on us as he was shaky with his driver early on and eventually gave that lead away after Sami Valimaki caught up to his score, helped by an early eagle on a Par 4. But then Valimaki caught some jitters while Knapp was steady with his chipping and putting. And while Knapp only hit two fairways off the tee all day, he pulled away for a two-stroke victory at 19-under par.
Knapp was not my initial choice for the Long Shot Bet for our PGA Mexican Open Betting Report which always includes a Best Bet and Top Overlay Bet as well. The professional golfer outside the top ten favorites was considering at first glance was Maverick McNealy at 50-1 odds. But I dove deeper into my appreciation of Knapp, he elevated to my top Long Shot choice while being listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings.
Knapp came into the week as the early front-runner to win the PGA Rookie of the Year honor after a tie for third place at Torrey Pines last month before a tie for 28th place at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. What was exciting about Knapp was his potential length off-the-tee. Knapp has been focusing on ball speed off his club — and he was getting a whopping 186 miles per hour off his driver. He ranked 22nd on the tour in Driving Distance going into the week — and his troubles with accuracy would be mitigated with the wide fairways and the forgiving rough at Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course.
Knapp has a good overall game. In those last two tournaments, he had gained more than 4.0 strokes per round in Approach the Green — and he had also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. An intriguing aspect with Knapp for the PGA Mexico Open was his great pedigree on the Korn Ferry Tour last year when he finished off with ten straight-made cuts. With most of the top-level pros bypassing this event on a resort course, a Korn Ferry veteran like Knapp was well-versed in scoring low numbers on a course like this.
In completing the west coast swing that week, the PGA Tour was moving to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosted this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. It is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s were at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s played at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways were wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals had to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough had grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remained playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter.
Besides cashing the 40-1 Long Shot ticket, we also cashed with Knapp in his Round One head-to-head props with Ryo Hisatsune. Hisatune had three top-33 finishes before missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He is a wizard around the green — but that is not a skill that would make a big difference at this event. He ranks just 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2024 — and Tony Finau led the field in that metric the last two years en route to finishing in first and second place at this event. For comparison's sake, Knapp ranked 35th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
After a great close to the 2023 PGA Tour with first-place finishes in the final two events (concluding with the PGA Tour Championship in August — I take the fall events off to use that handicapping time on football), cashing the 40-1 ticket puts us up 16 units after the first eight events (assuming everyone plays three units per week on the Best Best, the Top Overlay Bet, and the Long Shot Bet) — meaning we have five straight weeks of free rolls to build the golf-specific bankroll. We go into the PGA Cognizant Classic on a 15 of 24 (63%) PGA head-to-head run with prop bets with our three targeted golfers as well. With THE Players Championship and the Masters just around the corner in the next six weeks, let’s keep it rolling!
Best of luck — Frank.
The rookie took a four-shot lead into the final round — but he did not make it easy on us as he was shaky with his driver early on and eventually gave that lead away after Sami Valimaki caught up to his score, helped by an early eagle on a Par 4. But then Valimaki caught some jitters while Knapp was steady with his chipping and putting. And while Knapp only hit two fairways off the tee all day, he pulled away for a two-stroke victory at 19-under par.
Knapp was not my initial choice for the Long Shot Bet for our PGA Mexican Open Betting Report which always includes a Best Bet and Top Overlay Bet as well. The professional golfer outside the top ten favorites was considering at first glance was Maverick McNealy at 50-1 odds. But I dove deeper into my appreciation of Knapp, he elevated to my top Long Shot choice while being listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings.
Knapp came into the week as the early front-runner to win the PGA Rookie of the Year honor after a tie for third place at Torrey Pines last month before a tie for 28th place at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. What was exciting about Knapp was his potential length off-the-tee. Knapp has been focusing on ball speed off his club — and he was getting a whopping 186 miles per hour off his driver. He ranked 22nd on the tour in Driving Distance going into the week — and his troubles with accuracy would be mitigated with the wide fairways and the forgiving rough at Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course.
Knapp has a good overall game. In those last two tournaments, he had gained more than 4.0 strokes per round in Approach the Green — and he had also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. An intriguing aspect with Knapp for the PGA Mexico Open was his great pedigree on the Korn Ferry Tour last year when he finished off with ten straight-made cuts. With most of the top-level pros bypassing this event on a resort course, a Korn Ferry veteran like Knapp was well-versed in scoring low numbers on a course like this.
In completing the west coast swing that week, the PGA Tour was moving to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the third edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosted this event for the third straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament moving from April to February on the tour schedule. It is a Par 71 course consisting of 7456 yards with five Par 3 holes. Three of the four Par 5s were at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s played at 459 yards or longer. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average — so this course plays long. Additionally, 23.4% of the approach shots came from 175 to 200 yards away. While the Paspalum grass fairways were wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals had to maneuver against 106 bunkers. The rough had grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remained playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Paspalum grass that measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter.
Besides cashing the 40-1 Long Shot ticket, we also cashed with Knapp in his Round One head-to-head props with Ryo Hisatsune. Hisatune had three top-33 finishes before missing the cut two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. He is a wizard around the green — but that is not a skill that would make a big difference at this event. He ranks just 70th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2024 — and Tony Finau led the field in that metric the last two years en route to finishing in first and second place at this event. For comparison's sake, Knapp ranked 35th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
After a great close to the 2023 PGA Tour with first-place finishes in the final two events (concluding with the PGA Tour Championship in August — I take the fall events off to use that handicapping time on football), cashing the 40-1 ticket puts us up 16 units after the first eight events (assuming everyone plays three units per week on the Best Best, the Top Overlay Bet, and the Long Shot Bet) — meaning we have five straight weeks of free rolls to build the golf-specific bankroll. We go into the PGA Cognizant Classic on a 15 of 24 (63%) PGA head-to-head run with prop bets with our three targeted golfers as well. With THE Players Championship and the Masters just around the corner in the next six weeks, let’s keep it rolling!
Best of luck — Frank.
