American League Futures Consideration

Baltimore has stunned baseball to not only make the playoffs this season but has emerged as the likely #1 seed in the American League with that position nearly clinched. The numbers certainly support the Orioles as the most complete team in the AL field, but this is also a group with minimal playoff experience and a pitching staff that lacks the elite results of most past World Series champions. 

Houston won the World Series last season as the #1 seed in the American League but over time that won’t likely prove to the be the norm with this being just the second season of the current 12-team format. On the National League side, the #6 seed made the World Series last season and after a tense finish in the AL West there are viable candidates to make a run in this year’s AL field with more attractive pricing than where the Orioles currently stand, with Baltimore last winning a playoff series in 2014 and last winning the World Series in 1983. Baltimore and Texas are close to clinching the #1 and #2 spots in the AL Bracket but don’t present attractive prices at +250 and +265 respectively to win the AL Pennant. Another team may, however, be worth consideration. 

CONSIDERATION: TAMPA BAY RAYS +500 TO WIN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay was the driver’s seat in the American League most of the season after a historic 29-7 start to the season. The Rays had a tough month of July to allow Baltimore an opportunity to move ahead in the AL East and even while Tampa Bay has played well down the stretch, they will have to go through the Wild Card round barring a collapse for Baltimore. 

A surprise early in the season was the bullpen for the Rays struggling despite the success of the team, with the offense and starting staff carrying the team. Injuries have greatly hurt the Rays potential on paper with Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs lost for the season. The bullpen for the Rays climbed into the top 10 in the season numbers late in the season and currently leads MLB with a 2.77 FIP from relievers in the past month. 

Tyler Glasnow returned to the Rays in June and gives Tampa Bay a true ace to lead the rotation, while Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, and Aaron Civale have all pitched well enough to earn a postseason start. In a three-game wild card series with Glasnow starting Game 1, the Rays have plenty of options to work with to cover two other games with its mix of elite relievers and capable starting options. 

Should Tampa Bay advance, they would draw the top seeded Orioles who won eight of 13 games vs. the Rays this season but with even scoring at 48-48. The Orioles will have won only a few more games than the Rays on the season as Tampa Bay will have the second best record in the American League and a stronger scoring differential than Baltimore to warrant only a minimal underdog price. The Orioles with a young team and without playoff experience will also be in the less than ideal position of having nearly a week off to potentially zap the team’s late season momentum and build pressure in Baltimore. 

In the Wild Card round it isn’t confirmed who Tampa Bay will draw, but right now it would be Toronto, with the Jays 128 runs worse than the Rays in scoring differential this season. Toronto lacks formidable starting pitching with Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt inconsistent performers at the top of the rotation while the Toronto bullpen ranks 18th in the past month in WAR while posting a 4.57 ERA. 

Tampa Bay is 32-18 since August 1 while the Blue Jays are 28-23, rarely rising above an average level for significant stretches all season. Toronto will also face the Rays in the final regular season series with the Jays likely needing to go all out to win those games while the Rays will be unlikely to use any meaningful pitching options in those games. That would set up a possible advantage in the Wild Card round that would be in St. Petersburg, where the Rays have a current MLB best 53-28 home record. 

The Rays could also draw Houston who went 7-0 in the AL playoffs on the way to winning the World Series last season, but the Astros didn’t face the Rays last season and Tampa Bay beat Houston in the 2020 ALCS. Tampa Bay was upset by Cleveland in the Wild Card round last season with only one run scored in 24 innings, but this was a World Series team in 2020 and this year the Rays have 837 runs with a few games to go for the season after scoring only 666 runs in the 2022 regular season for a dramatic improvement. Texas is the only team that has scored more among AL teams this season as the Rays would have a sizeable edge at the plate vs. Toronto, Houston, or Baltimore. 

In the current bracket, the Rays would not have to face the Twins or Mariners until the ALCS with Minnesota and Seattle (should they get in) possessing the best starting pitching among AL playoff teams as the thin depth in the rotation for Tampa Bay may not be as big of a factor as it might appear to be on paper in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is also the only team besides the Astros in the playoff field with significant playoff experience and recent playoff success, as Tampa Bay should be priced as a more serious threat in the AL Pennant chase.